EUROFER forecasts EU apparent steel consumption to grow 2.3% in 2027, after just 0.1% growth in 2026. That is a stronger outlook, not a full recovery: demand is still expected to remain about 7 million tonnes below its 2019 level in 2027. Construction supports the near-term outlook, while automotive output is forecast to decline in 2026; EUROFER expects broader growth across steel-using sectors in 2027.
What EUROFER forecasts for EU steel demand
In its Q3 2026 Economic and Steel Market Outlook, published in September and reiterated in an October 1 release, EUROFER forecasts apparent steel consumption growth of 0.1% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. Apparent consumption is a market measure of steel consumption; it is not the same as steel produced by EU mills.
The forecast implies that the pace of demand growth will improve in 2027, but the level remains depressed relative to 2019. EUROFER expects 2027 consumption to be around 7 million tonnes below that pre-pandemic benchmark. Its Director General, Axel Eggert, cautioned that “Modest improvements in demand should not be mistaken for a genuine recovery,” citing weak manufacturing, elevated energy costs, and uncertainty around trade and geopolitics as pressures on investment and industrial activity. EUROFER’s October 1, 2026 release summarizes the forecast and risks.
Why the construction and automotive signals differ
Construction and engineering support activity
EUROFER identifies construction and mechanical engineering as supports for growth in 2026. Its forecast for output from steel-using sectors (SWIP) is 1.5% growth in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. SWIP measures production in sectors that use steel; it is not apparent steel consumption, so these percentages should not be read as steel-demand growth rates.
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Automotive remains a near-term weakness
The Q3 outlook forecasts automotive output to fall by a further 0.9% in 2026. That does not support describing current auto performance as strong. EUROFER’s expectation is for broader recovery among steel-using sectors in 2027, rather than evidence that automotive is already rebounding strongly.
How the forecast changed in 2026
EUROFER revised its demand outlook during the year. The September/Q3 estimate is the latest located forecast in the cited material; earlier releases show how sensitive the outlook is to new data and assumptions.
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| EUROFER forecast vintage | 2026 apparent steel consumption | 2027 apparent steel consumption |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026, published March 2026 | +1.3% | +1.4% |
| Q2 2026, released June 2026 | +0.4% | +2.2% |
| Q3 2026, published September 2026; reiterated October 1 | +0.1% | +2.3% |
These are successive forecasts for the same measure, not actual outcomes. The Q3 vintage sharply reduces the 2026 expectation compared with Q1, while its 2027 forecast is higher. Earlier Q1 estimates put consumption 11 million tonnes below pre-pandemic levels in 2026 and 9 million tonnes below in 2027; those figures are not interchangeable with the Q3 estimate of a roughly 7-million-tonne gap in 2027.
What the wider steel market says about the outlook
EUROFER’s Q3 report also describes a difficult backdrop for producers and trade. EU crude steel production was 125.8 million tonnes in 2025, which the report calls a record low. Capacity utilisation was 67% in May 2026, compared with 65% in 2025. In the first half of 2026, EU steel exports to third countries fell 20%, or 14 million tonnes; imports totaled 34 million tonnes, including 26 million tonnes of finished products, after a 5% decline over that period. These production, utilisation and trade figures provide context but do not substitute for the apparent-consumption forecast.
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What could hold back a 2027 rebound
EUROFER points to elevated energy costs, weak manufacturing, and global trade and geopolitical uncertainty as risks to investment and industrial activity. The forecast therefore depends on a broader improvement in steel-using sectors materializing despite those pressures. The figures are projections, not a guarantee of realized demand.
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