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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesUnited CEO Scott Kirby warned that airfare increases would “probably start quick” as higher fuel costs worked through the airline industry, according to The Associated Press. That is a warning about cost pressure—not a forecast that every airline, route or ticket will rise by a set amount. Airfares can adjust with a lag, and the latest reported U.S. averages show they can keep rising even as fuel prices fluctuate.
What United’s CEO said about airfare increases
On March 14, 2026, AP reported Kirby’s warning that airfare increases would “probably start quick” as fuel costs surged. The statement describes the direction of pressure airlines faced; it does not specify how much fares would rise, when a particular route would change, or whether every airline would follow the same course. United’s official first-quarter release documents higher fuel expense, but does not contain that exact airfare statement. AP’s report is the source for the quote.
Why higher fuel costs can take time to affect ticket prices
Airlines plan schedules and seat capacity ahead of travel and sell tickets in advance. When fuel becomes more expensive, tickets already sold cannot be repriced retroactively. An airline can adjust prices on seats still available, change fees or fare products, or alter capacity, but the timing and scale depend on its decisions and customer demand.
AP reported that about 35% of United’s tickets for the final three months of 2026 had already been booked when fuel prices jumped again. That illustrates why a fuel-price spike does not instantly reset the price of every seat. United’s first-quarter release said it planned a five-point capacity reduction relative to its original 2026 plan for the rest of the year, while retaining the option to reduce or restore flying as demand warranted. A capacity change may affect availability, but it does not establish a specific fare increase by itself. AP’s September report and United’s April 21, 2026 release describe those details.
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What reported fares and fuel prices show
Reported data show rising average fares through the first half of 2026, but they do not provide a route-specific prediction or prove that fuel alone caused the changes.
| Measure | Reported figure | Qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Average U.S. airfare, excluding optional fees | $405 in 2025 Q4; $428 in 2026 Q1; $436 in 2026 Q2 | Bureau of Transportation Statistics averages as reported by AP; not a quote for a specific itinerary. |
| U.S. airfares in August | Up 23% year over year | U.S. Labor Department figure reported by AP on September 28, 2026. |
| U.S. jet fuel index | $4.53 per gallon on September 17; AP also reported a Friday reading of $4.30 | Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index readings reported by AP; the $4.53 level was nearly twice the 2025 average across the four U.S. markets tracked. |
| Global jet fuel price | About $99 per barrel on February 27; $209 by early April; $195 in mid-September | IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor figures reported by AP, citing S&P Global Energy Platts data. |
| Fuel share of airline operating expenses | Nearly one-third in 2026, up from about one-quarter in 2025 | IATA figures reported by AP. |
| United fuel expense | $340 million higher year over year in first-quarter 2026 | United’s reported increase, not an estimate for the entire airline industry. |
In September, United CFO Mike Leskinen said at an investor conference, “I don’t actually care if it stays high. I just need it to stabilize,” according to AP. The point is that unpredictability itself can complicate airline planning; fuel and fares do not move in a simple, immediate one-to-one relationship. AP’s September reporting covers the fare and fuel figures and the comment.
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Will flights get cheaper if jet fuel prices fall?
Not necessarily, and not immediately. AP reported that average U.S. fares rose across the first two quarters of 2026 even as fuel prices moved up and down. Airlines set fares in response to multiple factors, including remaining seat inventory, demand, schedules and costs. Falling fuel prices may ease cost pressure, but the reported figures do not establish that airlines will lower fares on a particular route or by a particular date.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to decide whether to book now or wait
There is no route-specific forecast in the available reporting that can say whether buying now will beat waiting. Compare the options you can actually book for your dates rather than treating Kirby’s warning as a guaranteed price deadline.
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- Compare total trip cost. Include baggage and seat-selection charges, not just the displayed base fare.
- Check what each fare includes. Review seat choice, changes and refundability; lower-priced fare tiers may offer fewer benefits.
- Compare the itinerary. Weigh schedule and route fit alongside price, including any trade-off you would make to avoid a fee or inconvenient connection.
- Verify current conditions before paying. Fees and fare terms can change, so read the airline’s current rules for your route and ticket.
For example, AP reported that United raised checked-bag fees in 2026 to $45 for a first checked bag and $55 for a second on specified routes. Some passengers remained eligible for a complimentary first checked bag, and those reported fees may have changed since publication. United also introduced premium fare tiers that differed in seat selection, baggage, itinerary changes and refundability. Check the applicable terms rather than assuming those figures or benefits apply to every traveler. AP’s April 3 report has the reported fee details.
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