There is no Federal Reserve meeting today, October 5, 2026. The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for October 27–28. At its September meeting, the Fed raised its target range by a quarter percentage point to 3.75%–4.00% and said inflation remained elevated. That backdrop does not support treating an October rate cut as the expected outcome—but it does not guarantee what the committee will decide.
When is the next Fed meeting?
The FOMC is scheduled to meet October 27–28, according to the Federal Reserve’s 2026 calendar. October 5 is not a meeting date. The Fed has also scheduled the minutes of its September 15–16 meeting for release on October 7.
For readers asking, “Will the Fed raise rates again in October?”, the useful distinction is between the scheduled meeting and what markets or policymakers may expect. The meeting date is known; its decision is not.
What does the latest Fed decision say about a possible cut?
On September 16, 2026, the FOMC voted 12–0 to raise the federal funds target range by 0.25 percentage point, to 3.75%–4.00%. Its statement said, “Inflation remains elevated,” while also saying, “Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace.” Those are the committee’s descriptions in its September 16 statement.
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One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchA cut at the next meeting is therefore not supported by the cited policy backdrop: the most recent decision was a hike, and the Fed described inflation as elevated. That is a reading of the available evidence, not an October forecast or a guarantee. Incoming data and the committee’s assessment can change before the meeting.
What are Fed officials projecting?
The September Summary of Economic Projections gives a useful view of participants’ expectations, but it is not a promise by the committee or a market forecast. The September projections report median participant projections of 4.1% for the federal funds rate in 2026 and 3.7% for PCE inflation in 2026.
| Measure | September 2026 median projection | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Federal funds rate, 2026 | 4.1% | Median projection of FOMC participants, not a committee commitment. |
| PCE inflation, 2026 | 3.7% | Median projection of FOMC participants, not a guaranteed outcome. |
Participants’ risk assessments also leaned toward higher inflation: 17 judged risks to PCE inflation to be weighted to the upside, one considered them broadly balanced, and none weighted them to the downside. These assessments describe participants’ views, not the probability of a particular October decision.
Are there current odds for an October rate move?
CME FedWatch calculates probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices and asks media to attribute those estimates to “CME FedWatch.” Its FedWatch page should be checked for a current October estimate; the material available for this article does not establish a current numeric probability.
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Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →A September 16 report said futures traders then assigned a 51% chance of a quarter-point hike in October. That figure is dated and should not be presented as today’s odds. Market-implied probabilities move with futures prices and are not guarantees of what the FOMC will do.
What could still move rate expectations before October 27?
Several releases are scheduled between now and the meeting. The New York Fed’s economic calendar lists the dates below; it cautions that dates and times are tentative and may change. The week-ahead report also highlights the services-sector survey and the FOMC minutes.
| Date | Release or event | Why it matters to the policy picture |
|---|---|---|
| October 5 | ISM services-sector measure | Offers evidence about activity in the services sector. |
| October 7 | Minutes from the September 15–16 FOMC meeting | Provide more detail on the September decision and participants’ views on inflation and employment. |
| October 8 | Weekly initial jobless claims | Adds a timely labor-market reading. |
| October 9 | Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey | Adds information on consumer sentiment. |
| October 14 | Consumer Price Index (CPI) | Provides another inflation reading ahead of the meeting. |
| October 15 | Producer Price Index (PPI) and advance retail sales | Adds information on producer prices and consumer spending. |
| October 27–28 | FOMC meeting | The committee’s scheduled policy meeting. |
| October 29 | Gross domestic product and personal income/PCE price index | These arrive after the meeting and can inform expectations for later decisions, not the October decision already announced. |
The Fed’s blackout period for this meeting is scheduled to begin October 17. Under the Fed’s communications policy, blackout begins at midnight Eastern Time on the second Saturday before a meeting and ends at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on the day after it. The October 17 start follows from that rule and the October 27–28 meeting dates.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to judge whether a release changes the outlook
A data release is not automatically a market-moving surprise. Compare the result with what was expected and with the previous reading, then consider whether the change bears on the Fed’s employment and price-stability goals. A result showing persistent inflation may strengthen the case for keeping policy restrictive; evidence of a weakening labor market may strengthen arguments for easing. Neither path is certain, and a single release does not decide the meeting.
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Before relying on a probability estimate, refresh CME FedWatch close to the date you are checking it. Also verify the release schedule: the New York Fed notes that calendar dates and times are tentative.
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