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The headline that farm bankruptcies had already exceeded 2024 levels referred to the first quarter of 2025, not 2026: a House hearing document reproduced a count of 259 filings in January–March 2025, more than the full-year 2024 comparison cited there. The latest figures available for 2026 cover only January through June: a separate project identified at least 208 agricultural Chapter 11 and Chapter 12 cases. That is a worrying partial-year count, but it does not establish a full-year 2026 total or a like-for-like comparison with 2024.
What the “already exceed 2024” headline actually means
The claim traces to a 2025 congressional hearing document reproducing University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture extension economist Ryan Loy’s research. It reported 259 U.S. farm bankruptcy filings in the first three months of 2025—more than the entirety of 2024, according to that source. The comparison is specifically first-quarter 2025 against all of 2024; “this year” in the headline meant 2025.
That figure should not be treated as a current 2026 count or merged automatically with newer totals. It comes from a distinct reporting layer and has a different period and scope from the later figures described below. The House hearing document is the source for the 259 figure.
What the newer 2025 and 2026 counts show
Calendar year 2025: Chapter 12 filings
The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) reported 315 Chapter 12 filings for calendar year 2025, 46% more than in 2024. It said Chapter 12 filings rose for a second consecutive year. This annual count is limited to Chapter 12; it is not the same measure as a combined count of Chapter 11 and Chapter 12 cases.
AFBF’s 2025 geographic counts were 121 Chapter 12 cases in the Midwest and 105 in the Southeast. Among states it highlighted, Arkansas had 33, Georgia 27, and Iowa 18. These are counts, not population-adjusted rates, and should be read as 2025 Chapter 12 figures rather than measures of relative risk across states. See AFBF’s analysis of 2025 filings.
January–June 2026: combined Chapter 11 and Chapter 12 cases
The DEBT project identified at least 208 agricultural bankruptcies in the first half of 2026: 177 Chapter 12 cases and 31 Chapter 11 cases. The report says that is 61% of the total it recorded for all of 2025. If the first-half pace continued for the rest of the year, it would imply about 416 cases in 2026—but that is a conditional projection, not an observed full-year result.
The DEBT project’s figures were pulled from PACER as of June 2026. The available data therefore do not establish a full-year 2026 total or show that 2026 filings have already exceeded all of 2024 on a like-for-like basis. The DEBT project’s data and project page describes its coverage and method.
Why Chapter 12 and Chapter 11 counts differ
Chapter 12 is a bankruptcy reorganization route for eligible family farmers and fishermen that can let them restructure debts while continuing to operate. Some agricultural businesses do not qualify for Chapter 12, or may need a broader restructuring, and may file under Chapter 11 instead. A Chapter 12-only count therefore does not capture every agricultural bankruptcy.
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One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchThe DEBT project combines Chapter 11 and Chapter 12 cases. It uses PACER court records and cross-references cases with USDA Farm Service Agency program-recipient data; a match is treated as an indicator that the debtor is an agricultural operation. From 2021 through June 2026, it identified 1,401 agricultural filings: 1,200 Chapter 12 cases and 201 Chapter 11 cases. Its project description was published by Southern Ag Today.
Chapter 12 eligibility is not automatic, and the available sources do not provide a complete current eligibility checklist for individual cases. AFBF notes that farms often rely on off-farm income and that earning most family income outside farming can disqualify a family from Chapter 12. A farm’s circumstances should be assessed against current legal requirements rather than inferred from these summary figures.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What bankruptcy counts can—and cannot—tell you
Bankruptcy filings are a useful but incomplete indicator of farm distress. The DEBT project warns that its dataset is not a census: farms that do not participate in USDA Farm Service Agency programs may not be identified, and its current dataset does not include agricultural cases under Chapter 7 or Chapter 13. Many financially distressed farms do not file for bankruptcy at all.
For those reasons, a filing count cannot tell you how many farms are in financial trouble overall, nor can a rise by itself explain why any particular farm sought protection. Comparisons are most meaningful when they match the time period, bankruptcy chapters counted, source and identification method, and whether a figure is observed or projected.
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USDA’s Economic Research Service forecast 2026 net farm income at $158.4 billion, down 5.5% from 2025 after adjusting for inflation. It forecast farm-sector debt at $605.1 billion, up 4.6% from 2025 in nominal terms. Those are forecasts for the farm sector, not bankruptcy counts or proof of the cause of an individual filing. See the USDA ERS farm-sector income and finances forecast.
Other forecast measures point in different directions: USDA expected 2026 net cash farm income to rise 0.4% in nominal terms but fall 2.5% after inflation, while working capital was forecast to rise 3.5% nominally after falling 15.0% in 2025. These mixed indicators are a reminder that no single income, debt, or liquidity figure fully describes farm finances or explains bankruptcy trends.
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