The U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.9 in September 2026 from 53.9 previously, but it fell short of the 57.0 forecast reported by Investing.com. The increase signals improving conditions compared with the prior month; because the index remained above 50, it also indicates expansion rather than contraction.
What the September 2026 result says
Investing.com reported an actual reading of 55.9, a previous reading of 53.9, and a forecast of 57.0 for the U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI. The month-to-month and forecast gaps are arithmetic differences from those reported figures:
- Up 2.0 points from the previous reading: 55.9 minus 53.9.
- 1.1 points below forecast: 55.9 minus 57.0.
So the result improved relative to the prior month but did not reach the expectation shown on Investing.com’s calendar. That comparison alone does not explain why the reading came in below forecast.
How to interpret a PMI reading
A Purchasing Managers’ Index is a survey-based indicator of business conditions. For this indicator, 50 is the dividing line: a reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. At 55.9, the September result points to expansion in the surveyed manufacturing sector.
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S&P Global describes its diffusion-index calculation as: “Index = (Percentage of survey respondents reporting ‘higher’) *1.0 + (Percentage of survey respondents reporting ‘the same’)*0.5 + (Percentage of survey respondents reporting ‘lower’)*0.0”. In practical terms, responses reporting higher conditions raise the index, unchanged responses count halfway, and lower responses do not add to it. The index reflects the balance of survey responses; it is not a percentage growth rate.
Why a PMI can rise and still miss expectations
The previous reading and the forecast answer different questions. The previous figure is the earlier reported index level; the forecast is an expectation for the new result. A result can therefore rise from the previous month while still landing below the forecast, as September’s 55.9 did.
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A forecast miss is a comparison with an expectation, not a signal that activity necessarily shrank. Nor do these three figures establish what drove the result or how financial markets responded.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Do not confuse the S&P Global and ISM surveys
The 55.9 figure belongs to the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI series. The Institute for Supply Management publishes a separate U.S. Manufacturing PMI, with its own survey and readings. ISM reported 54.5 for September 2026, down from 54.6 in August. That is not the previous reading for the S&P Global figure, and the two series should not be blended.
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| Series | September 2026 | Previous | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 55.9 | 53.9 | Investing.com |
| U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.6 | Institute for Supply Management |
When comparing PMI figures, check the publisher and geography first, then distinguish the actual result from the previous reading and the forecast. The same 50 threshold helps interpret expansion versus contraction, but different survey publishers produce distinct series.
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Sources
- Investing.com, “Manufacturing PMI Surpasses Previous, Falls Short of Forecast,” October 1, 2026
- Investing.com U.S. Manufacturing PMI calendar, October 1, 2026 listing
- S&P Global, “Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) data – FAQ”
- Institute for Supply Management, September 2026 Manufacturing PMI report
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