The 2026 PC market is facing a sharp unit decline, but not necessarily a matching collapse in revenue. Gartner forecasts worldwide PC shipments will fall 10.4% this year, while IDC’s later forecast calls for an 11.3% decline and approximately 17% growth in average selling prices. Gartner likewise expects average PC prices to rise about 17%.
The main pressure is a shortage of DRAM and NAND flash, the memory used in system RAM and SSD storage. AI data-center construction is redirecting semiconductor capacity toward higher-margin products, leaving PC makers with higher costs and fewer attractive low-cost configurations. For households and businesses, the practical result may be fewer bargains, more expensive high-memory systems, and a stronger case for upgrading an existing computer when possible.
The short version
- Global PC shipments: Gartner forecasts a 10.4% decline in 2026; IDC forecasts an 11.3% decline.
- Average prices: Both Gartner and IDC project roughly 17% growth in average PC prices.
- Memory costs: Gartner forecasts combined DRAM and SSD prices will rise 130% by the end of 2026 compared with 2025.
- Why the timing is confusing: Gartner reported first-quarter shipments up 4% to 62.8 million units, partly because vendors built inventory ahead of expected price increases.
- Potential duration: Gartner and IDC do not expect meaningful relief until late 2027, although that is a forecast rather than a guaranteed date.
What is actually falling?
“PC sales” can mean several different things, and the distinction matters to anyone assessing the market or deciding whether to buy.
- Shipments are computers sent by manufacturers into distribution channels. They are not the same as final purchases by consumers or businesses.
- Sell-through is what retailers or enterprise customers actually buy.
- Average selling price, or ASP, is the average amount paid per system.
- Revenue is the total value of systems sold.
The major forecasts are primarily shipment forecasts. A 10%–11% decline therefore does not mean that consumer purchases, manufacturer revenue, or industry profits will each fall by exactly the same amount. IDC expects average prices to rise about 17%, allowing the total value of the PC market to increase even as fewer machines are shipped.
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A simple example shows how that can happen: 100 PCs sold at $800 each produce $80,000 in revenue. If 90 PCs sell at $950 each, revenue rises to $85,500 despite a 10% unit decline.
How large is the expected decline?
| Source | Forecast | Geography and period | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gartner, February 2026 | Shipments down 10.4% | Worldwide, full-year 2026 | PC shipments; average prices forecast up 17% |
| IDC, later 2026 update | Shipments down 11.3% | Worldwide, full-year 2026 | PC shipments; ASP forecast up about 17%; Q4 decline could approach 20% |
| Omdia, July 2026 | Shipments down 14.4% | United States, full-year forecast | U.S. shipments; Q1 shipments were down 7% |
The figures are not contradictory. They were issued at different times, cover different geographies, and use different assumptions about inventory, pricing, and demand. All point toward a difficult year for PC units.
Why AI data centers are affecting ordinary computers
The problem is not that every PC uses the same memory module as an AI server. The issue is competition for semiconductor manufacturing capacity and supplier investment.
- AI data centers require large quantities of high-bandwidth memory and other advanced memory products.
- Those products can offer manufacturers higher margins than conventional client memory.
- Manufacturers redirect capacity and capital toward data-center demand.
- DRAM for PC system memory and NAND flash for SSDs become tighter or more expensive.
- PC makers face higher bills of materials and must decide whether to raise prices, reduce specifications, accept lower margins, or discontinue marginal products.
IDC’s earlier analysis projected 2026 DRAM supply growth of 16% and NAND supply growth of 17%, both below historical norms. That does not mean supply is falling; it means supply may expand too slowly to satisfy demand across AI servers, conventional servers, PCs, smartphones, and other electronics.
Gartner uses the term “memflation” for this memory-driven price pressure. Its February forecast called for combined DRAM and SSD prices to rise 130% by the end of 2026 compared with 2025. That is a component-price forecast, not a promise that every PC will cost 130% more.
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Why first-quarter PC growth does not disprove the downturn
Gartner reported that worldwide PC shipments rose 4% year over year to 62.8 million units in the first quarter of 2026. At first glance, that appears inconsistent with a full-year decline. Gartner attributed much of the increase to vendors and distributors building inventory before expected price increases.
This is known as pull-forward demand. Companies buy earlier than planned to secure supply or avoid higher costs. That can make shipments look healthy in the short term while weakening later quarters because some future purchases have already occurred.
IDC expects the decline to worsen to approximately 20% year over year in the fourth quarter. The exact quarterly path is uncertain, but the broad risk is clear: an inventory build can delay the visible impact of the shortage rather than eliminate it.
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Low-cost laptops and desktops
Entry-level systems are especially exposed because memory and storage make up a larger share of their total cost. Manufacturers may respond by raising prices, reducing RAM or SSD capacity, using slower components, eliminating promotions, or moving a familiar configuration into a higher price band.
A sub-$500 PC should not be assumed to have disappeared. However, the low-end market could offer worse value if the cheapest models have inadequate memory, small storage drives, or limited upgrade options. A lower headline price may conceal a configuration that becomes frustrating within a few years.
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Gaming PCs and workstations
Systems that require large amounts of RAM or SSD storage are more exposed to memory inflation in absolute dollar terms. A 16GB or 32GB configuration may remain usable for many buyers, but high-capacity gaming, creator, engineering, and AI-development systems can become disproportionately expensive.
Premium and enterprise systems
Premium products have more room to absorb higher component costs, and large enterprise customers may obtain better allocation through volume contracts. That does not make them immune to price increases. It does mean availability and pricing may vary substantially by customer size, product tier, and contract terms.
What businesses should do
Organizations should treat this as a procurement and lifecycle-management problem, not simply a reason to buy every device immediately.
- Check refresh urgency. Delaying a replacement can save money, but it may also extend the life of devices with security, support, compatibility, or performance problems.
- Ask how long quotes remain valid. Vendors may be less willing to guarantee component pricing for long periods.
- Request allocation and lead-time commitments. A low quoted price is less useful if the required configuration cannot be delivered when needed.
- Compare total cost of ownership. Include warranty, deployment, repair, spare inventory, endpoint management, and energy costs.
- Standardize carefully. A common fleet can reduce support costs, but locking into a specification that is difficult to source may increase delivery risk.
Some organizations may extend device lifetimes after a recent Windows 11 refresh or after purchasing ahead of expected price rises. That is a temporary procurement delay, not proof that business PC demand has permanently vanished. Delaying too long can create a more expensive problem when unsupported or underpowered devices must be replaced urgently.
What consumers should do
Buying now may make sense when:
- Your current computer is failing or cannot run required work, school, or business software.
- You need substantial RAM or storage and the exact configuration is currently available at an acceptable price.
- A delay would cost more through lost productivity, repair bills, or missed work.
- You have found a complete system with the right specifications, warranty, and return policy—not merely a discounted old model.
Waiting may make sense when:
- Your current PC performs adequately.
- The purchase is discretionary.
- You can tolerate uncertain availability and potentially higher prices.
- You are waiting for a meaningful platform or processor refresh rather than hoping every price will fall.
Waiting does not guarantee a bargain. Analysts expect memory constraints to remain significant into late 2027, and IDC says prices may not immediately return to 2025 levels even as capacity expands.
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Upgrading may beat replacing the whole PC
If an existing desktop or laptop is otherwise capable, adding memory or replacing the SSD can be cheaper than buying a complete system. This is most attractive when the machine has standard, accessible upgrade slots.
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Before buying an upgrade, verify:
- DDR generation, supported speed, maximum capacity, and number of slots;
- whether the laptop uses replaceable SODIMMs or soldered memory;
- whether the SSD is a replaceable M.2 or 2.5-inch drive;
- the motherboard’s interface and capacity limits;
- whether firmware, cooling, or proprietary modules restrict compatibility.
RAM upgrades are not universal. Many thin laptops have soldered memory, and some systems cannot be opened without affecting warranty or repairability. An SSD upgrade may provide more useful capacity but will not solve a system that is fundamentally limited by its processor, cooling, battery, or operating-system support.
Refurbished or used computers can also be alternatives. Check battery health, warranty coverage, firmware updates, repair history, storage condition, and Windows compatibility before comparing the price with a new system.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to compare a PC when prices are rising
Compare the usable configuration rather than the model name or advertised discount. A sensible checklist includes:
- At least the RAM capacity you expect to need for the full ownership period;
- SSD capacity and whether the drive can be replaced;
- CPU generation and expected software-support life;
- battery and thermal performance for laptops;
- warranty length, repairability, and return terms;
- the exact SKU, since two systems with the same product family name may have different memory, storage, screens, or processors.
Do not assume that a more expensive PC is automatically more future-proof. Paying for a stronger processor while accepting soldered, insufficient RAM may be worse than choosing a slightly less powerful system with adequate memory and replaceable storage.
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How long could the shortage last?
Gartner’s reported expectation is that prices could remain high into late 2027. IDC’s later outlook likewise says meaningful relief may not arrive before the end of 2027. These are forecasts, not confirmed recovery dates.
The timing depends on several variables:
- new memory-fabrication capacity coming online;
- how manufacturers divide output among high-bandwidth memory, server DRAM, client DRAM, and NAND;
- the strength of AI-server demand;
- whether higher PC and smartphone prices reduce demand;
- inventory corrections across manufacturers and distributors;
- trade policy, tariffs, and changes in supply chains;
- whether PC makers redesign products to use different components.
Relief could arrive unevenly. Component prices may stabilize before retail promotions return, and premium systems may recover availability before low-cost configurations do.
What could change the forecast?
The projected decline is not inevitable in every detail. Faster capacity expansion, weaker-than-expected AI infrastructure spending, a sharper slowdown in PC demand, or a large inventory correction could reduce price pressure. Conversely, stronger AI demand, trade restrictions, or manufacturing delays could make the shortage worse.
That uncertainty is why a universal “buy now” or “wait” recommendation is misleading. The financially sensible decision depends on the cost of delay, the quality of the current system, and whether the desired configuration is upgradeable.
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The 2026 PC market is shaping up as a lower-volume, higher-price market. Gartner and IDC expect worldwide shipments to fall roughly 10%–11%, while average prices rise about 17%. The industry can therefore generate more revenue even as fewer computers move through the channel.
For consumers, buy when the computer is necessary or when a hard-to-find, high-memory configuration is available at a reasonable total cost. Wait when the current system works and the purchase is optional. For upgradeable computers, RAM or SSD improvements may offer better value than replacement. For businesses, secure realistic delivery and price terms while avoiding a refresh delay that creates security or support risks.
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