The Feb. 13, 2025 edition of Agriculture.com’s daily briefing, written by Tony Dreibus, covered three developments: overnight gains in wheat futures tied to export demand, a bill to move the Food for Peace program from USAID to USDA, and an extreme cold forecast stretching from Canada to Texas. Every price, estimate and forecast below is historical reporting from that date. None of it is a current quote or a current forecast.
The three stories at a glance
| Story | What the edition reported | What it did not establish |
|---|---|---|
| Wheat and export demand | Wheat futures rose overnight. USDA figures showed 18.8 million metric tons of U.S. wheat purchased since June 1, up 8% year over year, and 13.8 million metric tons of accumulated exports, up 24%. | Price levels after the session, and whether the purchase pace continued. |
| Food for Peace | Sen. Jerry Moran and Rep. Tracey Mann introduced a bill to place the program under USDA rather than USAID. | Whether the bill advanced or passed, and the program’s later status. |
| Cold weather | Advisories from the Canadian border into the southern Plains, with wind chills near −19°F in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles and as low as −55°F in much of North Dakota. | Actual temperatures observed, and any later warnings. |
Wheat: demand, stocks and overnight prices
Purchases versus shipments
The headline point was demand. According to USDA figures as reported by Agriculture.com in 2025, importing countries had agreed to buy 18.8 million metric tons of U.S. wheat since the 2024/25 marketing year began on June 1. That is an 8% increase over the same point a year earlier. Accumulated exports were 13.8 million metric tons, up 24%.
These two numbers measure different things. Purchases are commitments that buyers have agreed to, and they can be filled over many months. Accumulated exports measure wheat that has already been shipped. A rise in commitments does not guarantee that the same volume has left port, and the gap between the two is one way to judge whether demand is turning into physical trade.
Ending stocks
The edition also said USDA had lowered its domestic wheat ending-stock outlook earlier that week. The projected figure for May 31 was 794 million bushels, compared with a prior outlook of 798 million and trade expectations of 801 million. Ending stocks are the wheat left over when the marketing year closes. A smaller projected carryout generally signals tighter supply, which is one reason traders cite when prices firm.
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Overnight prices
The following figures are the session levels the article reported for February 13, 2025. They are historical and should not be used as a current quote.
| Market | Level reported | Change reported |
|---|---|---|
| March Chicago wheat | $5.78½ per bushel | Up 4¼¢ |
| Kansas City wheat | $5.97¾ per bushel | Up 6¼¢ |
| Corn | $4.88 per bushel | Down 2¢ |
| March soybeans | $10.27¾ per bushel | Unchanged |
| Soymeal | $295.20 per short ton | Up $1.10 |
| Soybean oil | 45.21¢ per pound | Down 0.45¢ |
Kansas City wheat is a hard red winter contract, the class grown across the Plains. That is why the cold forecast for the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles, where hard red winter wheat was overwintering, connected the weather story to the market story in the same edition.
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Corn export sales
The edition also reported exporter sales of 130,320 metric tons of corn and 120,000 tons of corn for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year to unnamed countries. The published text uses “corn” for both quantities. Readers should treat the second figure as the article’s wording and check the underlying USDA export sales report before relying on the split.
Food for Peace: a proposal to move the program to USDA
Food for Peace is a food aid program that has operated for about 70 years. Sen. Jerry Moran and Rep. Tracey Mann, both Republicans from Kansas, introduced a bill to safeguard it from elimination by moving administration from USAID to USDA. The American Soybean Association and U.S. Wheat Associates supported the proposal.
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What supporters said
Vince Peterson, president of U.S. Wheat Associates, said: “Realigning administration of Food for Peace, our flagship hunger program, to USDA makes perfect sense and ensures that the agency most closely connected with food is equipped to delivery wholesome food from American farmers to those who need it most.” The published text reads “delivery” where “deliver” is presumably intended. The wording is quoted here as printed.
Sen. Moran argued the program should sit closer to the producers who grow these crops. He also said: “Food stability is essential to political stability, and our food aid programs help feed the hungry, bolster our national security and provide important markets for our farmers.”
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Claims the article attributed to others
The edition reported that President Donald Trump and adviser Elon Musk had said the program should be shut down. It also reported that President Trump fired USAID Inspector General Paul Martin after Martin issued a report critical of efforts to reduce headcount and of uncertainty around foreign assistance. The article attributed a figure of almost $500 million in food at risk of spoiling in ports and storage to Martin’s report. These are claims as the article presented them. The edition does not show how any of them were resolved.
What the edition could not tell readers
As of this edition, the bill was a proposal. A bill’s introduction does not determine whether it becomes law, and a change in administration can take effect through other channels. To check where the proposal stands, look up the bill number on Congress.gov and confirm current program administration through USAID and USDA publications.
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The cold snap
The edition reported cold weather advisories in several states from the Canadian border south into the southern Plains. In the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles, wind chills were expected near −19°F. Extreme cold warnings covered much of North Dakota through noon local time, with wind chills as low as −55°F.
The article attributed these forecast details to National Weather Service maps and agency statements. An NWS warning excerpt cited in the edition said: “The life-threatening wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as five minutes.” That line is a quotation from a forecast from February 13, 2025, not current safety guidance. For current alerts in any area, check the National Weather Service directly.
How to use a briefing like this with your own money in mind
- Date-stamp every number. A market level is only true for the session it describes. Before acting on any figure, find its date and the source it came from.
- Separate commitments from shipments. Purchase agreements and accumulated exports answer different questions about the same trade.
- Keep futures and grocery prices apart. The edition reports futures, which are wholesale contract prices. It does not show retail food prices, and the two do not move in lockstep.
- Treat policy stories as proposals until they pass. A bill’s support list tells you who wants the change. It does not tell you whether the change will happen.
- Read weather alerts as time-specific. Advisories expire. Heating, fuel and travel costs during a cold event depend on the alert in effect that day, which this edition did not address.
For anyone tracking grain markets over time, USDA’s own weekly export and ending-stock reports are the primary records behind the figures in this briefing. Going to those sources first means you are working from the numbers themselves rather than a summary of them.
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