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US Green-Card Suspension Poses Little Near-Term Risk to Indian IT Firms, Analysts Say

Analysts cited in an October 9, 2026, report see limited immediate impact from the reported PERM suspension, but flag uncertainty around retaining US-based workers and potential costs.
From TheFinanceBase Team3 min to read
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Analysts cited in an October 9, 2026, Business Standard/Reuters report see little immediate business impact from the reported US suspension of the Permanent Labor Certification (PERM) programme. Their reasoning: Indian IT firms accounted for a small share of PERM applications, according to ICICI Securities. The longer-term concern is less about immediate revenue and more about uncertainty over retaining workers in the United States, alongside possible cost pressure.

What the reported suspension targets

The report describes the US action as targeting PERM, a labor-certification route connected to employment-based permanent residence. It presents the move as part of a broader effort to constrain pathways from foreign-born status toward US residence and citizenship. The precise legal action, start date, duration, exceptions and applications covered are not established by the report; readers should not treat those implementation details as confirmed.

Why analysts expect limited near-term impact

ICICI Securities reportedly said Indian IT firms accounted for less than 2% of PERM applications filed from October 2024 through September 2025. That figure, as reported by Business Standard/Reuters, suggests comparatively limited direct exposure through this route; it is not a measure of all immigration pathways or a company-by-company breakdown.

Nasscom, the industry body, reportedly said firms had reduced reliance on H-1B workers and expanded local US hiring, while relatively few H-1B workers move to permanent residence through PERM. These are Nasscom’s reported assessments, not independently verified industry-wide measurements.

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The distinction matters for investors: the report says analysts do not expect an immediate revenue impact, while identifying talent retention and sentiment as the more relevant near- to medium-term channels. PERM applications alone do not show how many workers or client engagements could ultimately be affected.

Where longer-term risks could emerge

  • Retention uncertainty: Firms could face more difficulty retaining some US-based employees if a route to permanent residence becomes less available. The report identifies this as a risk, not an established wave of departures.
  • Potential cost pressure: Greater reliance on US hiring or subcontractors could increase costs. The report does not establish that companies have already incurred such costs.
  • Different exposure by company: Relevant factors include reliance on PERM versus other hiring or immigration routes, the proportion of US employees hired locally, and the cost of retaining workers or using subcontractors. Comparable company-level data is not provided.

What the report says about individual firms

The report names Microsoft, Cognizant, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Wipro, HCL Technologies and Capgemini among companies targeted by the curbs. It does not provide comparable PERM exposure figures for these firms.

TCS said it did not expect a change to its workforce strategy or client engagements, citing single-digit PERM applications over the preceding two years. That is the only company-specific PERM figure in the report and is the company’s stated position.

Why market reaction needs a date

On October 9, 2026, the report said the Indian IT index rose about 3.5%, led by TCS after its second-quarter results. It also reported that Indian IT stocks had fallen 25% during 2026 to that date, compared with a 14% fall in the benchmark. These are date-specific market observations, not a continuing performance outlook or proof that the immigration development caused the moves.

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The report described India’s IT industry as worth $315 billion amid AI-led disruption, without providing a separate valuation methodology. ICICI Securities characterized the policy development as negative for Indian IT stocks in the near to medium term, chiefly through sentiment and longer-term talent-retention concerns rather than immediate revenue. Bajaj Broking research head Sumit Singhania also said the development added uncertainty to a sector already under pressure. Both are attributed views, not established forecasts.

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What investors can reasonably take from the news

The reported application share supports the analysts’ view that direct near-term exposure through PERM may be limited. It does not establish that the policy will have no effect: the legal scope is not confirmed in the report, and longer-term effects would depend on how firms recruit and retain US-based workers. For assessing a specific company, the report’s headline-level industry figures are not a substitute for that company’s own disclosure of workforce mix, immigration routes and any resulting costs.

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