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CME Group’s October 2026 market update reports that its Agriculture Index fell 2.66% in September, even as it remained up 13.07% year to date. The report covers September performance—not October trading through October 9.
How did the index and its components perform in September?
CME Group reported a September index high of 95.25 and low of 91.62. Through the report’s period, the year-to-date high was 95.25 and the low was 81.03. The figures below are the September 2026 changes CME published for the index and its components.
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| Market or component | September change |
|---|---|
| CME Group Agriculture Index | -2.66% |
| Oats | +12.27% |
| Nonfat Dry Milk | +10.38% |
| Feeder Cattle | +7.35% |
| Class IV Milk | +4.69% |
| Soybean Meal | +3.58% |
| Live Cattle | +3.53% |
| Soybean | +0.39% |
| Lumber | -4.00% |
| Soybean Oil | -4.29% |
| Lean Hogs | -6.98% |
| Corn | -6.88% |
| KC Wheat | -12.53% |
| Chicago Wheat | -12.69% |
All returns in the table are CME Group’s reported September 2026 figures. The gap between the strongest and weakest components shows why the broad index’s monthly result does not describe every agricultural market equally.
What drove the September decline, according to CME?
CME attributed the index’s correction chiefly to falling prices in major grain and oilseed benchmarks, citing bearish USDA reports and selling pressure late in September. These are CME’s explanations of market movements, not independently established causes.
#1 Best Overall
Grains and oilseeds
Corn fell sharply late in the month after the USDA NASS Quarterly Grain Stocks report. CME said the report put stocks at 2.095 billion bushels, compared with an average trade expectation of 1.924 billion bushels, and described stocks as 35% above the year-earlier figure. CME also linked declines in Chicago SRW and KC HRW wheat to stock and trade concerns, including weaker export commitments and higher projected global ending stocks in USDA reports.
The monthly results were not uniformly negative across the complex: Soybean fell 0.39%? No—CME reported Soybean up 0.39%, while Soybean Meal rose 3.58% and Soybean Oil dropped 4.29%. Corn declined 6.88%.
Rank #2
Livestock
Feeder Cattle gained 7.35% and Live Cattle rose 3.53%, while Lean Hogs fell 6.98%. CME said cattle futures recovered as supply fundamentals became more influential. Its commentary cited September Cattle on Feed placements of 1.62 million head, 9% below the year-earlier level.
Dairy and lumber
Nonfat Dry Milk rose 10.38% and Class IV Milk gained 4.69%; Class III Milk, butter, and cheese fell. CME attributed strength in nonfat dry milk and Class IV Milk to tighter NFDM availability and demand, and described weaker cheese demand and increased butter production as pressures on Class III Milk, cheese, and butter. Lumber declined 4.00%; CME pointed to sufficient wholesale supply, seasonal slowing in construction, and higher mortgage rates.
What does the CME Group Agriculture Index measure?
The index is a volume-weighted rolling-futures benchmark, not a basket of spot prices or a single commodity. It covers five sectors: grains, oilseeds, livestock, dairy, and lumber, using futures listed on CME and CBOT. Component selection and weights are based on average daily dollar volume over an annual assessment window, subject to liquidity thresholds and limits on concentration by asset and product group. CME describes annual target weights as implemented through unit-based rebalancing.
At the end of the 2026 rebalance, the largest component weights were Soybean at 15.32%, Soybean Oil at 11.53%, Corn at 11.44%, and Soybean Meal at 11.44%. Chicago SRW Wheat was weighted at 8.54%, Live Cattle at 9.65%, and Feeder Cattle at 8.55%, according to CME’s 2026 methodology guide.
Rank #4
Rebalancing and futures rolls
CME’s guide says the annual rebalance begins on the sixth business day of January and runs over four or five business days, depending on the asset. Component futures also transition on scheduled roll windows tailored to each product’s listed contract months. Those rules matter when comparing this benchmark with another index: check sector coverage, component selection and weights, roll timing, and whether the reported measure tracks futures returns or spot prices.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Does the October update give an October return?
No October-to-date return is provided in the October market update. Its performance table reports September 2026, so the -2.66% figure is a September change, not an October result. CME’s index landing page links to the report, but the report itself supplies the prior month’s performance.
Quick Recap
Best Value
Sources
- CME Group Agriculture Index October 2026 Market Update
- CME Group Agriculture Index Guide
- CME Group Agriculture Index
- CME Group’s July 9, 2026 launch announcement
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