In its November 2024 WASDE report, USDA lowered its U.S. 2024/25 corn and soybean production estimates from October and put both below the trade expectations reported by Successful Farming from Bloomberg. Corn was estimated at 15.143 billion bushels and soybeans at 4.461 billion. The title refers to that 2024 report—not a confirmed 2026 update.
Which USDA report does the headline refer to?
The figures are from USDA’s November 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), which forecasts annual supply and use for major U.S. and global agricultural commodities. The World Agricultural Outlook Board prepares the monthly report with information compiled and interpreted by interagency committees. USDA’s WASDE overview explains the report’s role.
These are estimates for the 2024/25 crop year, not current production figures. USDA’s release calendar scheduled the October 2026 WASDE for October 9, 2026; as of October 8, that report had not yet been released. Check USDA’s release calendar for the current schedule.
How far did production estimates fall?
The November estimates were lower than both the October USDA estimates and the Bloomberg-sourced trade expectations cited by Successful Farming. The following comparison keeps those benchmarks separate; production and yield are different measures, with yield expressed per acre.
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| Crop, 2024/25 | November USDA production | October USDA production | Trade production expectation | November USDA yield | Trade yield expectation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 15.143 billion bushels | 15.203 billion bushels | 15.179 billion bushels | 183.1 bushels per acre | 183.7 bushels per acre |
| Soybeans | 4.461 billion bushels | 4.582 billion bushels | 4.553 billion bushels | 51.7 bushels per acre | 52.8 bushels per acre |
The trade expectations are Bloomberg-sourced figures reproduced in Successful Farming’s November 8, 2024 report. USDA’s October Crop Production report independently gives the prior-month baseline in rounded form: 15.2 billion bushels of corn and 4.58 billion bushels of soybeans. USDA NASS, October 2024 Crop Production.
Corn
USDA’s November estimate put corn production 60 million bushels below October and 36 million bushels below the reported trade expectation. Yield was estimated at 183.1 bushels per acre, 0.7 bushel below October and 0.6 bushel below the trade expectation. The report language quoted by Successful Farming says: “Corn production is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, down 60 million from last month on a 0.7-bushel reduction in yield to 183.1 bushels per acre.” The 15.1-billion figure is rounded; the comparison table reports 15.143 billion.
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Soybeans
The soybean estimate declined 121 million bushels from October and was 92 million bushels below the reported trade expectation. Yield was 51.7 bushels per acre, 1.1 bushels below October’s implied estimate of 52.8 and also 1.1 bushels below the trade expectation. Successful Farming reported Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota among the states with the largest production changes.
What happened to ending stocks?
Ending stocks estimate the supply remaining at the end of the marketing year. In this report, the direction versus expectations differed by crop: corn stocks exceeded the trade expectation, while soybean stocks fell short of it.
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| Commodity and measure | November USDA estimate | Trade expectation | October USDA estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. corn ending stocks | 1.938 billion bushels | 1.921 billion bushels | 1.999 billion bushels |
| U.S. soybean ending stocks | 470 million bushels | 535 million bushels | 550 million bushels |
Global ending stocks were also below the reported trade expectations: corn was estimated at 304.1 million metric tons versus 305.9 million expected, and soybeans at 131.7 million metric tons versus 134 million expected. These are figures reported in Successful Farming’s account of the November 2024 WASDE.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How did markets respond?
Successful Farming reported that corn and soybean futures initially rallied modestly after the yield estimates came in lower than expected, while also describing resistance and selling pressure. Those are observations about the immediate November 2024 reaction, not a present-day price signal or a forecast.
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- SWEET CORN SEEDS FOR BEGINNERS & PROS. These vegetable seeds for planting outdoors are ideal for all skill levels. Hardy and adaptable, they thrive in full sun and a variety of soils. With low-maintenance care, enjoy growing your own corn seeds from a trusted heirloom variety loved for its sweet, tender kernels.
- PERFECT FOR MOST REGIONS – COOL CLIMATE FRIENDLY. Designed to grow in USDA zones 3-11, these corn seeds are resilient and adapt to temperatures from 65°F to 95°F. Direct sow seeds outdoors for best results—no transplanting needed. Your garden will be filled with tall, healthy stalks reaching up to 6 feet.
- MATURES EARLY FOR QUICK HARVESTS. Enjoy a bountiful crop in just 75-80 days. Each Golden Bantam stalk produces 1-2 ears of corn with 8-12 kernel rows. Perfect for backyard gardens or homesteads, it’s a reliable, fast-growing option to maximize your gardening efforts.
- VERSATILE CULINARY USES – FRESH OR PRESERVED. Grill, boil, or add to recipes like chowder, cornbread, and salsa. These sweet corn seeds yield kernels that freeze, can, or dry well, letting you enjoy homegrown corn all year round. A perfect addition for both fresh meals and long-term storage.
Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser at Total Farm Marketing, said: “Corn and soybean futures rallied modestly after the USDA report on the surprise of yield numbers coming in smaller than expected for both corn and soybeans….” Al Kluis, managing director of Kluis Commodity Advisors, characterized the report this way: “The report was bullish because USDA took the corn and soybean yield numbers down.” Both comments are attributed in the Successful Farming report; they describe advisers’ interpretation at the time, not guaranteed market outcomes.
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