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In February 2025, federal employees told The Verge they were facing a flood of executive orders, sudden termination notices, and a breakdown in communication. Later official counts show how large the resulting shrinkage became. Across 22 major agencies, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) found a net drop of nearly 256,000 employees, more than 11%, between December 2024 and January 2026. The declines were far from even, and what they mean for a household depends on which agency employs you and what you have been offered or told in writing.
What the February 2025 reporting does and does not show
The headline’s wording follows a February 4, 2025 feature in The Verge by Justine Calma, Mia Sato, and Lauren Feiner. It is built from interviews with federal workers who described uncertainty, fast-moving directives, and communication failures. Most interviewees spoke anonymously because they feared retaliation. Those accounts are firsthand, but they are not a survey, and they do not describe every federal workplace.
The article’s dek frames the problem as federal employees facing “a flood of executive orders, termination notices, and a breakdown in communication.” Read that as a description of conditions in early 2025. It does not tell you how those same workers feel in 2026.
What the 2026 GAO analysis measures
GAO’s analysis is the most tightly defined count among the official sources. It covers 22 major agencies and reports both the flows of people leaving and joining during 2025 and a net change over a longer window.
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| Measure | Reported figure | Period and scope |
|---|---|---|
| Separations | Nearly 378,000 | During 2025, 22 major agencies |
| Hires | About 127,000 | During 2025, 22 major agencies |
| Net decline in employees | Nearly 256,000 (more than 11%) | December 2024 to January 2026, same 22 agencies |
| Agencies down more than 10% | 18 of 22 | December 2024 to January 2026, same 22 agencies |
Source: U.S. Government Accountability Office, 2026 report. The flows and the net change cover different windows, so they do not reconcile exactly. Subtracting hires from separations gives roughly 251,000, not 256,000.
The tools behind the reductions
GAO identifies three categories of workforce measures used across these agencies. It also notes that some of them were paused by litigation or congressional action.
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- Resignation or retirement incentives. Offers that encourage employees to leave. The Deferred Resignation Program is one example; OPM’s dashboard counts 139,978 participants in it.
- Reductions in force (RIFs). Formal reductions in which positions are eliminated and the employees in them are separated.
- Hiring restrictions. Limits on filling open positions. These lower hiring without requiring anyone to leave.
Because some measures were halted, the reductions did not follow a single, uninterrupted schedule.
How uneven the declines were
GAO reports that 18 of the 22 agencies fell by more than 10%, which means the other four did not fall by more than that amount. The spread was wide. The reported decline ranged from about 1% at the Department of Homeland Security to more than 45% at the Department of Education.
Those two endpoints show why agency-level numbers matter more than a single government-wide average. An employee at a lightly reduced agency faced a very different situation from one at an agency that lost close to half its headcount.
What OPM’s monthly dashboard adds
The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) now publishes monthly workforce data drawn from federal agencies through EHRI. Its October 7, 2026 release covered August 2026. Its headline measures are different from GAO’s:
| Measure | Reported figure | Period and scope |
|---|---|---|
| Federal civilian employees serving | 2,024,832 | August 2026 snapshot, OPM dashboard |
| Net workforce change | -264,029 | Since January 20, 2025, OPM dashboard changes view |
| Deferred Resignation Program participants | 139,978 | OPM dashboard; period not stated for this figure |
Source: U.S. Office of Personnel Management, 2026 dashboard.
Reading GAO and OPM figures side by side
| Feature | GAO 2026 report | OPM dashboard |
|---|---|---|
| Population covered | 22 major agencies | OPM’s own federal civilian workforce measure |
| Time window | Calendar 2025 for flows; December 2024 to January 2026 for net change | Monthly; August 2026 snapshot; changes since January 20, 2025 |
| Core measures | Separations, hires, net change, percentage change by agency | Employees serving, net change, Deferred Resignation Program participants |
| Publication pattern | A single 2026 report | Monthly releases |
The two decline figures, about 256,000 and about 264,000, are close in size, but they cover different populations and start dates. Treat them as separate measurements rather than as confirmation of each other, and cite each with its publisher and window.
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What the figures cannot establish
- They do not establish how staffing cuts affected service delays or quality. The sources give no cross-agency estimate of that link, so any claim that a specific service slowed because of cuts needs agency-level evidence.
- The interview accounts describe conditions in early 2025. They do not measure current morale or working conditions.
- Headcounts show how many people are employed. They do not show how each remaining person’s pay, benefits, or job security changed.
If you are a federal employee, what to do with your money now
These steps are general practice for someone facing an offer, a notice, or a hiring freeze. They are not a substitute for agency guidance on your specific benefits.
Quick Recap
- Get every offer and notice in writing. Ask your HR office which program or action the document falls under, and note the decision deadline and what happens if you miss it.
- Measure your cash runway. Total your essential monthly costs, such as housing, utilities, insurance, debt payments, food, and transportation. Divide the cash you could access without touching retirement savings by that monthly total. The result shows how many months you could cover a gap in pay.
- Get written benefit estimates before deciding. Ask the benefits office what each option does to your health coverage, retirement contributions, and any payout, and when each change takes effect.
- Keep a dated file. Save notices, emails, pay statements, and benefit letters. If you later need to dispute a separation or a benefit, dates and copies matter.
- Get independent advice on time-limited choices. A fee-only financial planner or tax professional can model the trade-offs. If you belong to a union, ask your representative about the notice. For legal questions about a separation, consult an employment attorney.
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