The next February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is scheduled for February 10, 2027, at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, according to the USDA release calendar. February 2026 is already historical, and USDA has not yet published February 2027 estimates. Before release, farmers can prepare by knowing which balance-sheet changes to check and how to keep national forecasts separate from local marketing decisions.
What the February WASDE report covers
USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) prepares and releases WASDE monthly. It forecasts annual U.S. and world supply and use for wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds and cotton. It also covers U.S. supply and use of sugar, meat, poultry, eggs and milk, as well as Mexico’s sugar supply and use. The USDA WASDE page provides the release calendar and links to reports and historical materials.
USDA describes WASDE as a benchmark for commodity markets. The projections can inform decisions by farmers, ranchers, businesses and governments, but the report is a national and international outlook—not a forecast of an individual farm’s local cash price. Its estimates combine data, analysis and expert judgment through an interagency process involving agencies such as AMS, ERS, FAS and FSA, with NASS providing key domestic production information. USDA’s WASDE overview explains the report and its process.
How to read a crop balance sheet
For a given commodity and marketing year, the balance sheet connects supply and use. Beginning stocks, imports and production make up supply. Domestic use and exports account for demand. Ending stocks are what remain after those uses are accounted for.
- Supply: beginning stocks, imports and production.
- Use: domestic use and exports. Domestic use may be divided into categories—for example, corn feed and corn ethanol.
- Ending stocks: the projected amount left at the end of the marketing year.
WASDE also forecasts season-average farm prices for most covered commodities. The figures are related: a change in production or use can alter the projected ending balance, while a price forecast gives USDA’s estimate of the marketing-year average received by farmers. No single line in the report, including ending stocks, determines a market price. USDA’s report materials describe its supply-and-use estimates.
What to compare when the report is released
- Compare this month with the previous month. Note which estimates changed for the commodity and marketing year you follow.
- Trace the changes through the balance sheet. Check whether the revision came from production, imports, domestic use or exports, then see how it changes ending stocks.
- Put ending stocks in context. Consider them in relation to use rather than reading the stocks figure in isolation. This is a way to interpret the balance sheet, not a USDA formula for predicting prices.
- Keep U.S. and world estimates distinct. Confirm the geography and marketing year before comparing figures. USDA notes that international trade totals can differ because of timing, in-transit shipments and different collection methods.
- Read the price estimate in its proper context. Check whether the marketing year is underway and understand that the estimate is a season-average forecast, not a local bid.
This sequence helps distinguish what actually changed from what the market may already have anticipated. The report itself does not promise a particular price response.
What “average farm price” means—and what it does not
USDA’s average farm price is the national average price farmers receive over the marketing year, weighted by the amount sold in each month. For a marketing year already underway, USDA combines observed prices with estimates for the remaining months. USDA’s WASDE FAQs put it this way: “The WASDE reports the average price received by farmers for their crops over the course of the marketing year.”
That national average is not your local cash bid, basis, contract price or a guaranteed sale price. The report does not account for the specific delivery point, crop quality, storage costs, contract terms, cash-flow needs or risk tolerance that shape an individual farm’s decision.
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How WASDE estimates are developed and revised
WAOB chairs commodity committees that review and interpret domestic and foreign information. Inputs include NASS surveys and reports, information from foreign agricultural attachés and governments, satellite imagery, weather, trade and market data, agency analysis, statistical models and expert judgment. USDA checks estimates against new production and utilization information as it arrives and revises projections when warranted. A monthly report is therefore an updated outlook, not a final accounting. USDA’s WASDE overview describes the interagency process.
Can WASDE move crop prices?
Yes. WASDE can affect commodity markets because it updates expectations about supply and demand, but the direction and size of any reaction depend on the changes and what traders already expected. A lower ending-stocks estimate, for instance, is not by itself a guaranteed price rise; the underlying revisions and market expectations matter.
Historical USDA Economic Research Service analysis illustrates why the report draws attention, but its figures are not current price targets. A 2012 ERS feature analyzed 350 WASDE reports published from 1981 through 2010. At the recent prices used in that study, it estimated average immediate report-related changes of $187 per cotton contract, $190 per soybean contract and $140 per hard red winter wheat contract. Its estimated changes for the highest-impact reports in the same analysis were $638, $578 and $548 per contract, respectively. These are historical study estimates, not forecasts for a future report or a farmer’s revenue. USDA ERS’s 2012 analysis explains the study and its estimates.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Use the report alongside farm-specific information
WASDE can help frame the national supply-and-demand outlook, but it cannot tell an individual farmer when or at what price to sell. Before acting on a report-day move, compare the national outlook with current local bids and basis, and account for storage, contract costs, delivery terms, expected sale revenue, cash-flow requirements and your tolerance for risk. Those local and farm-specific factors are outside the scope of a national balance sheet.
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What to check before February 10
- Recheck the USDA release calendar for the scheduled date and time.
- Identify the commodity, geography and marketing year you need to follow.
- Have the previous month’s balance sheet available so you can spot revisions.
- Know which local bids, basis levels, storage costs and contract details matter to your farm.
- After release, use USDA’s report archive and related ERS or FAS outlook material for historical comparisons and commodity-specific context; check each agency’s publication timing.
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