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Repair common Windows errors and clear accumulated junk for a smoother, more stable PC - no reinstall needed.Free scan · no reinstallAnalysts expected USDA to lower its U.S. soybean export outlook in January 2026 as sales lagged and Brazil’s crop approached. Two days after that warning, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) set its 2025/26 export forecast at 1.58 billion bushels. That was a forecast—not a final tally of exports.
What analysts expected before USDA’s January reports
The January 12, 2026 story was a pre-release assessment, not a report of a decision already made. Analysts pointed to soft U.S. soybean sales, particularly to China, and rising competition from Brazil as reasons USDA might cut its forecast for marketing year (MY) 2025/26, which runs from September 2025 through August 2026 for these U.S. export figures.
At the time, USDA had left its December 2025 forecast unchanged, projecting exports 13 percent below the prior year. The January 12 report said net sales as of January 1 were nearly 29 percent lower year over year. It also reported that China had bought around 10 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans so far in 2025/26, compared with a typical 25–30 million metric tons in recent years. Those comparisons describe what was known then, not current sales.
Randy Mittelstaedt, an analyst with R.J. O’Brien, said, “The day of reckoning is coming for USDA to have to reflect lower soybean exports.” Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities, described the seasonal pressure this way: “We think our (U.S. soybean) export window, basically, as we get closer to February, completely closes.” Both comments expressed pre-release expectations, not USDA findings.
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What USDA forecast two days later
In its January 14, 2026 Oil Crops Outlook, USDA ERS forecast 2025/26 U.S. soybean exports at 1.58 billion bushels. The report also forecast 350 million bushels of ending stocks and a season-average soybean price of $10.20 per bushel. These were USDA estimates for that marketing year, not realized outcomes.
The report’s demand indicators help explain the reduction. ERS put soybean stocks on December 1, 2025, at 3.29 billion bushels. It reported September–November disappearance of 1.3 billion bushels, down 20 percent from the same period a year earlier, and soybean export inspections for those three months down 45 percent year over year. Inspections and disappearance measure different aspects of movement and use; neither is itself a final export total.
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Why Brazil mattered to the U.S. outlook
Brazil’s approaching harvest and expected export growth threatened to narrow the period when U.S. soybeans could compete most effectively in world markets. In the January outlook, ERS forecast Brazilian MY 2025/26 production of 178.0 million metric tons, which would be a record if realized, and cited increased Brazilian production and exports. More Brazilian supply can give buyers another source as the U.S. export season progresses.
This supply competition compounded the weak U.S. sales indicators. The January 12 analysts were concerned that China’s purchases were running below recent-year norms just as Brazil’s new crop was nearing the market; ERS’s January report then documented lower inspections and disappearance alongside a lower U.S. export forecast.
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How to read these figures without mixing forecast years
USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is issued monthly by the World Agricultural Outlook Board and forecasts supply and use for U.S. and world crops, including oilseeds. The WASDE page describes the report’s scope and schedule. A monthly forecast can change as sales, shipments, crop production and other information develop; it is not a guarantee of exports, price or ending stocks.
Later figures belong to a different forecast vintage and marketing year. ERS’s September 2026 market outlook estimated 2026/27 U.S. soybean production at 4.5 billion bushels and exports at 1.69 billion bushels. Those estimates should not be substituted for the January 2026 forecasts for 2025/26.
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As of October 8, 2026, USDA listed its next WASDE release for October 9 at 12 p.m. Eastern. The scheduled release was still in the future on October 8, so no October 2026 WASDE result is stated here.
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Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
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