On February 7, 2024, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (USDA ERS) forecast that inflation-adjusted U.S. net farm income would fall 27.1% to $116.1 billion in 2024. It projected net cash farm income would decline 25.8% to $121.7 billion. Those were forecasts—not final results—and USDA revised its outlook later in 2024.
Why did USDA forecast farm incomes to fall in 2024?
In its February 2024 outlook, USDA ERS expected lower commodity cash receipts and higher production expenses to squeeze farm-sector income. The agency projected commodity cash receipts of $485.5 billion, down $32.2 billion, or 6.2%, from the prior year. It forecast production expenses of $455.1 billion, up $7.2 billion, or 1.6%.
The same forecast projected commodity insurance indemnities to decline $1.5 billion, or 6.6%, and direct government payments to fall $2.2 billion, or 17.7%, to $10.2 billion. These figures describe the February 7 forecast, not amounts ultimately recorded for 2024. The income, receipts, and expense amounts in the February and December forecast summaries are inflation-adjusted.
What did “farm income” mean in the forecast?
Net farm income
Net farm income (NFI) is the broader measure of farm-sector profitability. USDA ERS explains that it incorporates noncash items, including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income. It also accounts for items such as home consumption, capital replacement, and the imputed rental value and expenses associated with an operator’s dwelling.
Net cash farm income
Net cash farm income (NCFI) counts cash receipts and cash expenses. Because it follows cash flows, the timing of crop sales and input purchases can affect it. USDA ERS says NCFI is generally less variable than NFI; the two measures are related but not interchangeable.
How the forecast changed during 2024
Later information led USDA ERS to revise the projected outlook. The December 3, 2024 forecast showed a substantially smaller expected decline in both income measures than the February forecast. The table keeps the two forecast vintages separate; every figure is a projection for 2024, not a final estimate.
| Measure | February 7, 2024 forecast | December 3, 2024 forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Net farm income | $116.1 billion; down $43.1 billion, or 27.1% in real terms | $140.7 billion; down $9.5 billion, or 6.3% in real terms |
| Net cash farm income | $121.7 billion; down $42.2 billion, or 25.8% in real terms | $158.8 billion; down $5.7 billion, or 3.5% in real terms |
| Commodity cash receipts | $485.5 billion; down $32.2 billion, or 6.2% | $516.9 billion; down $16.6 billion, or 3.1% |
| Production expenses | $455.1 billion; up $7.2 billion, or 1.6% | Projected to fall $19.2 billion, or 4.1% |
USDA ERS attributed the December forecast’s lower commodity receipts primarily to lower crop receipts. Its projected expense decline, in contrast to the increase anticipated in February, helped offset some of the expected pressure on income. The change illustrates why a forecast should be identified by its release date: it reflects the information available when that particular outlook was prepared.
Was the February forecast the final 2024 result?
No. USDA ERS’s February 2026 release included the first national and State estimates for calendar-year 2024. Those estimates used newly available National Agricultural Statistics Service cash-receipt information and preliminary 2024 Agricultural Resource Management Survey data, especially for expenses. ERS’s revision history says the release revised the 2024 net farm income estimate down by $285 million, or 0.2%, relative to the most recent forecast. It also raised crop cash receipts by $2.3 billion, or 0.9%, including a $3.1 billion upward revision to corn receipts and a $532 million downward revision to soybean receipts. ERS notes that 2024 estimates have continued to be revised.
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Repair common Windows errors and clear accumulated junk for a smoother, more stable PC - no reinstall needed.Free scan · no reinstallThose revision figures describe changes to estimates and forecasts; they do not, by themselves, give the final 2024 income total. The February 2024 projection should therefore not be presented as the realized result. USDA ERS typically issues several forecasts during the projected year and releases a first estimate in August or September of the following year, roughly 19 months after the calendar year begins.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the national forecast can—and cannot—tell a farmer
The figures describe U.S. farm-sector aggregates. They do not establish the profitability of a particular operation, which can differ with its crops or livestock, yields, prices, costs, debt, insurance, government payments, and timing of receipts and purchases. A national forecast is useful context, not a substitute for a farm’s own income statement or cash-flow planning.
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