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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteThe Trump administration is trying to keep coal plants operating and connect coal-fired power with new electricity demand, especially from AI data centers. But the policy push has not reversed coal’s decline in the latest federal outlook: the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts coal generation and coal’s share of electricity generation to fall through 2027 even as overall electricity use grows.
What the administration has done to promote coal
The White House’s April 8, 2025 executive order made the connection between coal and AI explicit. It directed the Interior, Commerce and Energy departments to identify regions where coal-powered infrastructure could support AI data centers and assess whether expanding coal-based infrastructure was feasible. The order set out a policy review and proposals; it does not establish that new coal capacity has been built or that data centers will use it. Read the executive order.
The White House framed coal as a way to meet rising demand from manufacturing and AI data centers while supporting reliability, affordability and energy security. Those are the administration’s stated arguments, not findings that the order itself proves. The administration’s fact sheet describes that case.
In February 2026, the White House directed the Department of War to prioritize long-term power purchase agreements with coal generators for military installations and other critical defense facilities. This is a procurement directive, not evidence that the agreements have all been signed. The order is available here.
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The Department of Energy says the administration prevented more than 17 gigawatts (GW) of coal generation from retiring in 2025. That figure is an administration claim in a promotional fact sheet; the available sources do not establish it as an independently audited total. DOE’s fact sheet provides its account.
Why AI and electricity demand are part of the debate
Electricity use is forecast to rise, and EIA identifies data-center development and increased manufacturing activity among the drivers. Its September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook projects U.S. electricity sales of 4,135 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2026 and 4,211 billion kWh in 2027. These are forecast figures, not final readings of completed-year consumption. See EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook.
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News coverage of the April 2025 orders also reports that the administration invoked electric cars, alongside data centers and AI, as reasons to keep some plants scheduled for retirement operating. But the sources available here do not quantify EVs’ incremental contribution to U.S. electricity demand. That means it would be misleading to assign EVs a specific share of the projected increase or treat their effect as equivalent to data-center growth. Associated Press coverage explains the administration’s demand argument.
What the latest federal forecast says about coal
Rising electricity demand does not automatically mean rising coal generation. EIA’s September 2026 outlook forecasts overall U.S. electricity generation growing 2.2% in 2026 and a further 1.7% in 2027, while coal-fired generation declines in both years. EIA points to regional differences in natural-gas and renewable generation as factors behind the forecast.
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| Measure | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coal share of U.S. electricity generation | 17% (EIA estimate) | 16% (EIA forecast) | 14% (EIA forecast) |
| Change in coal generation | Not stated in the cited September 2026 EIA outlook | Down 8% (EIA forecast) | Down 6% (EIA forecast) |
| Change in overall electricity generation | Not stated in the cited September 2026 EIA release | Up 2.2% (EIA forecast) | Up 1.7% (EIA forecast) |
The coal-share figures mix an estimate for 2025 with forecasts for 2026 and 2027; they are not all completed-year observations. In the same outlook, EIA forecasts solar generation rising 21% in 2026 and 18% in 2027, and wind generation rising 7% and 5%, respectively. These figures help explain how overall generation can grow while coal’s output and share shrink. EIA’s September 2026 release provides the generation-share estimates and forecasts.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the emissions forecast does—and does not—show
EIA forecasts U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions falling 1.7% in 2026 and 0.1% in 2027. It attributes the projected decline in part to lower coal- and petroleum-related emissions, while rising natural-gas emissions—largely from gas-fired generation—partly offset those decreases. These are forecasts, not observed outcomes, and they should not be read as evidence that coal policy alone is driving the emissions outlook. EIA’s energy-related emissions outlook explains the projection.
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