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Ontario’s Cancelled Basic Income Pilot: What the Results Show

Later studies found that many Ontario basic income pilot respondents reported better well-being, food security and financial stability, but the province ended the program before its planned evaluation was complete.
From TheFinanceBase Team4 min to read
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Ontario’s basic income pilot ended early, but later studies found that many surveyed participants reported better well-being, food security and financial stability. Those results are encouraging, not a completed verdict on the program: the province cancelled the pilot before its planned follow-up evaluation, so the remaining evidence comes from separate surveys and research involving subsets of participants.

What Ontario’s basic income pilot was

Launched in spring 2017, the pilot was designed to run for three years and test whether a different income-support model could affect food security, housing stability, physical and mental health, access to care, education and employment. By March 2018, more than 4,000 people—including comparison-group members—were involved in Hamilton, Brantford and Brant County, Thunder Bay and its surrounding area, and Lindsay. Ontario’s 2018 budget described the pilot’s aims and scope.

The benefit was set at 75% of Statistics Canada’s Low-Income Measure. Under the historical design, a single adult could receive up to $16,989 a year and a couple up to $24,027; benefits were reduced by 50 cents for each dollar of earned income. Participants with disabilities could receive an additional $6,000 annually. These were pilot-era amounts, not current benefit rates. Employment and Social Development Canada’s 2021 briefing note describes the benefit structure.

Why the pilot ended—and what evaluation was lost

After a change in government, Ontario announced the pilot’s cancellation in July 2018. Payments continued until March 2019, but the planned three-year study did not run to completion. Ontario did not publish an official evaluation, and the planned follow-up surveys were not collected, leaving baseline data from the evaluation plan. A 2021 position statement from Ontario Dietitians in Public Health describes the interruption.

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That missing follow-up is central to interpreting the later positive findings. Those findings came from separate studies and surveys of former participants, not from the government’s intended evaluation. They provide useful evidence about what respondents said they experienced, but cannot establish the pilot’s overall causal effect across Ontario.

What former participants reported

McMaster-led Hamilton–Brantford study

The 2020 report Southern Ontario’s Basic Income Experience, produced by McMaster University’s School of Labour Studies with collaborators and community partners, drew on surveys and interviews with former participants in the Hamilton–Brantford area. Its survey respondents reported changes in well-being, food security, finances, relationships and aspects of housing. The figures below are respondent-reported percentages from that study, not independently measured province-wide effects.

  • 83% said their mental well-being improved, and 86% said they experienced stress or anxiety less frequently.
  • 79% reported better overall physical well-being.
  • 86% reported a better diet, while 68% reported using food banks less often.

The report notes that its evidence was limited to self-reported survey responses from Hamilton–Brantford participants and a small interview sample. Read the full McMaster report for its methods and qualifications.

Separate Basic Income Canada Network survey

A different survey by the Basic Income Canada Network (BICN), summarized by Employment and Social Development Canada in 2021, found that 74% of its respondents said they could make healthy food choices. Also, 34% said the income supported employment—for example, through transportation or childcare costs, or by helping them start or expand a business. These are BICN survey responses, not findings from the McMaster study or Ontario’s unfinished official evaluation. The federal briefing note summarizes those responses.

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Later interviews on life after the pilot

A 2023 Carleton University report based on interviews with more than 40 former participants explored experiences of dignity, stigma, health, work, education, family, community and views of government. These accounts add detail about how participants experienced the pilot and its end; interviews can illuminate individual experiences, but they do not show how common those experiences were among all participants. See Carleton’s Life on Basic Income: Stories from Southern Ontario.

Did people stop working?

The Hamilton–Brantford survey does not support the blanket claim that recipients generally stopped working. Its employment figures describe transitions among survey respondents:

  • 54% said they were working before and during the pilot.
  • 17% said they worked before the pilot but not during it.
  • 5% said they were not working before but found work during the pilot.
  • Among respondents who worked both before and during the pilot, 37% reported improved pay and 31% reported better working conditions.

Some respondents who stopped working returned to education, according to the study. These are descriptive, self-reported figures from a limited regional sample; they do not show what participants would have done without the benefit or establish a province-wide employment effect. The detailed findings appear in the McMaster report.

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What participants said about cancellation

The BICN survey also recorded respondents’ worries and disrupted plans after the benefit ended. Because it was a non-random survey of 424 participants, these accounts should be attributed to its respondents rather than generalized to everyone in the pilot. The later Carleton interviews offer qualitative accounts of how former participants understood the program’s effects and ending, but neither source replaces the missing government follow-up evaluation.

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How strong is the evidence?

The most defensible conclusion is that many people who responded to later surveys reported positive changes during the pilot. The evidence does not establish a definitive net effect for all Ontario residents, show that the same outcomes would occur at a larger scale, or settle long-term questions about cost and program design. The intended follow-up was cut short, and surviving research has regional and self-report limitations.

Basic income also sits within a wider policy debate about affordability, work incentives and whether resources would be better directed toward services such as housing, childcare, public transit and health coverage. Those are policy questions, not outcomes measured by Ontario’s pilot. Federal materials outline some of that debate in the ESDC HUMA committee binder.

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