No cited source establishes that Canada’s critical-mineral reserves will decline by 56% by 2040. The better-supported concern is different: global demand for six priority minerals is projected to nearly double by 2040, and Canada may miss economic and domestic-supply opportunities if investment and production do not keep pace. A separate federal statistic says Canadian producers supplied 56% of U.S. aluminum imports in 2020–2023; it does not describe a decline in reserves.
Where the 56% figure comes from
The Canadian Climate Institute’s Critical Path report does not forecast a 56% drop in Canadian reserves. The separate figure appears in Natural Resources Canada’s 2024–25 results report: Canadian producers accounted for 56% of U.S. aluminum imports during 2020–2023.
That is a trade share for aluminum imports over a stated period—not a forecast, not a measure of mineral reserves, and not a figure for all critical minerals. The sources cited here do not substantiate the headline’s claim that reserves will decline by 56% by 2040.
What the evidence says about reserves and demand
The Canadian Climate Institute identifies copper, nickel, lithium, graphite, cobalt and rare earth elements as six priority minerals. It says Canada’s reserves of these minerals exceed current production levels. Reserves and production measure different things: reserves are mineral resources considered economically recoverable under stated conditions, while production is the amount extracted over a period. The report’s comparison should not be read as saying reserves are falling or that all known resources can be mined immediately.
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The Institute projects that global demand for the six minerals will almost double by 2040. The federal strategy’s 2024 annual report also attributes a doubling of global demand by 2040 to the International Energy Agency. These are demand projections, not estimates that Canada will run out of reserves.
What is actually at stake for Canada
Domestic supply and economic opportunity
The Institute estimates that Canada could leave $12 billion on the table annually by 2040 if companies cannot secure investment to raise production enough to meet domestic demand. The estimate excludes export opportunities. It is a conditional estimate of economic opportunity at risk—not a guaranteed loss, a forecast of government revenue, or a reserve-depletion figure.
Mining and processing capacity
Canada’s Critical Minerals Strategy progress update reports that, as of March 2025, the country had 56 active mines producing critical minerals, 31 critical-mineral processing facilities and 171 advanced critical-mineral projects, including 28 processing projects. Those counts describe mines, facilities and projects at different stages; they do not show that every project will be built, when it will produce, or how much mineral it will supply.
Industries that depend on these materials
Natural Resources Canada describes critical minerals as inputs for wind turbines, solar panels, electric-vehicle batteries, defence and aerospace technologies, electronics and agricultural products. Reliable access matters because demand is growing across sectors and supply chains can be concentrated. More Canadian extraction alone, however, does not guarantee domestic access: processing capacity, infrastructure, investment and commercial arrangements also matter.
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Why more production is not an automatic win
Expanding mines and processing can support supply and economic activity, but projects also carry environmental and community consequences. In its audit of the strategy’s implementation, the Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development identified shortcomings in Natural Resources Canada’s governance, risk analysis, and assessment of environmental and climate impacts. That finding is a reason to assess the strategy’s execution carefully, not proof that every project has the same effects.
Project decisions should account for environmental risks and cumulative effects, Indigenous rights and reconciliation, and the quality of partnership and engagement processes. They should also consider permitting timelines, capital and infrastructure requirements, the project’s contribution to domestic demand or export capacity, and whether the project adds mining, processing or recycling capacity. The available sources do not rank individual projects against those criteria.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read claims about Canada “running out”
When you see a projection about critical minerals, check what is being measured before drawing a conclusion. A reserve estimate, annual mine output, expected demand, import share and project pipeline are not interchangeable.
- Reserves: What mineral, geography, date and economic assumptions does the estimate cover?
- Production: Is the number annual output, a production target or a forecast—and for which mineral and facilities?
- Demand: Is the projection global or Canadian, and does it refer to one mineral or a group?
- Trade: Is a percentage a share of imports or exports over a defined period, rather than a measure of reserves?
- Projects: Are projects operating, under construction or only advanced in development? A project count is not a production forecast.
- Economic value: Is a dollar figure a modeled opportunity under conditions, a realized loss or a public cost?
For Canada, the cited sources support a serious question about whether investment, production and processing will keep pace with demand. They do not support the specific claim that reserves will decline by 56% by 2040.
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