No. ECB-affiliated economists Ulrich Bindseil and Jürgen Schaaf did not forecast Bitcoin at $10 million, and the ECB has not announced a Bitcoin ban in the sources discussed here. Their 2025 paper considers $10 million as a possible valuation in a discussion of other people’s bullish claims; their separate 2024 ECB Blog post argues that lawmakers should not give Bitcoin a perceived blessing “where a ban would be required.” Those are the authors’ arguments, not an ECB price target or an adopted ban.
What the economists said about $10 million Bitcoin
In “The distributional consequences of Bitcoin,” published on 11 August 2025, Bindseil and Schaaf discuss public claims about Bitcoin’s potential market value. They write that “it could be argued that any price for Bitcoin is equally plausible, including 10 million or more” because, in their analysis, Bitcoin has no particular economic justification or imputed basis anchoring its price. That is a statement about the absence of a valuation anchor—not an endorsement of $10 million, a probability estimate, or a price target.
The paper also describes a “Bitcoin-positive scenario” in which the price rises over a theoretical observation period without a final crash. The authors explicitly call that a simplifying assumption and warn: “This assumption should not be mistaken for a prediction of future real-world price developments.” Here, “positive” means rising price; it does not mean the authors judge the outcome beneficial to society.
The paper quotes a separate conditional claim by Michael Saylor: if a Bank of Shanghai Bitcoin ETF gave 1.5 billion people in China access and they bought Bitcoin, its price could reach $10 million per coin. The paper attributes that prediction to Saylor, not to Bindseil and Schaaf. Its reference list cites a June 2024 ZyCrypto report for the remark; the claim should therefore be read as a quotation reported by the paper, not as an independently verified forecast.
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How large would that valuation be?
The paper uses historical market-size figures to illustrate the scale of the bullish scenario: it reports global equity value of USD 111 trillion at the end of 2023 and an estimated gold market value of around USD 12.2 trillion as of August 2024, attributed to Gold Council 2024. The authors argue that the Kennedy scenario they discuss would put Bitcoin’s implied capitalization far above those two markets combined. These are dated comparisons, not current market totals.
What the paper argues about winners and losers
The authors’ distributional argument starts from a specific premise: Bitcoin price gains create wealth and consumption effects but do not increase the economy’s productive potential. In that framework, if existing holders consume more, the offset must come from reduced consumption elsewhere, lower investment, or another part of aggregate demand. The paper’s simplified model suggests that some of the resulting transfer could fall on latecomers and potentially on people who never own Bitcoin.
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This is a conditional model, not a measured finding that a particular Bitcoin price rise has already impoverished every non-holder. The outcome depends on how later buyers finance their purchases, how monetary policy responds to demand and inflation, and what assets households hold. The authors also say the case for households that never hold Bitcoin is more complex and its effects less straightforward. In their model, once holdings are equally spread between the two groups, subsequent price increases can be neutral for relative consumption and total consumption, even though an earlier redistribution remains.
What “urge a ban” refers to
The ban wording comes from a separate ECB Blog post by Bindseil and Schaaf, dated 22 February 2024, titled “ETF approval for bitcoin – the naked emperor’s new clothes.” The authors warned that regulation could give Bitcoin a perceived blessing “where a ban would be required.” They argued that Bitcoin is unsuitable as an investment and means of payment. That is the authors’ normative position in a blog post; it is not an ECB Governing Council decision, a European Commission legislative proposal, or evidence that the EU enacted a Bitcoin ban.
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Bindseil and Schaaf also published the critical ECB Blog post “Bitcoin’s last stand” on 30 November 2022. These posts show the authors’ public criticism of Bitcoin, but blog commentary should not be confused with binding ECB policy.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read the sources
| Source | What it establishes | What it does not establish |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 scholarly article, “The distributional consequences of Bitcoin” | The authors’ valuation discussion and conditional model of distributional effects. | A $10 million price forecast or an official ECB position. The article states that its views are the authors’ and not necessarily those of the ECB. |
| 22 February 2024 ECB Blog post | Bindseil and Schaaf’s argument that lawmakers should not give Bitcoin a perceived blessing where, in their view, a ban would be required. | An adopted ECB or EU ban. |
| 30 November 2022 ECB Blog post | Further critical commentary by the same authors. | Binding ECB policy. |
Read the paper, “The distributional consequences of Bitcoin”. The ECB Blog posts are “ETF approval for bitcoin – the naked emperor’s new clothes” and “Bitcoin’s last stand”.
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