USDA’s September 5, 2024 forecast put U.S. net farm income at $140.0 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars—$10.2 billion, or 6.8%, below 2023, but supported by higher receipts from livestock and animal products and lower production expenses. Those gains helped cushion weaker crop receipts. USDA later revised its 2024 forecast, so $140.0 billion describes the September forecast vintage, not the final estimate or today’s outlook.
Why was farm income stronger than expected?
In its September 5, 2024 forecast, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) projected inflation-adjusted net farm income of $140.0 billion for calendar year 2024. The forecast was a decline from 2023, not an increase: it was $10.2 billion, or 6.8%, lower.
The headline’s explanation is about what cushioned that projected drop. Crop receipts were expected to weaken, while higher receipts for animal and animal products—including eggs, cattle, milk, and broiler chickens—provided a counterweight. USDA also projected lower production expenses. Together, those forces moderated the decline in farm income.
The source identifies those livestock and animal-product categories as contributors but does not give a separate dollar contribution for each. It therefore supports describing their direction of impact, not ranking them or assigning them individual amounts.
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USDA expected total farm commodity cash receipts to fall by $23.3 billion, or 4.3%, to $516.5 billion in 2024, primarily because of lower crop receipts. At the same time, production expenses were projected to decrease by $16.2 billion, or 3.4%. Lower expenses helped offset some of the pressure from reduced receipts.
These figures describe different parts of the farm-income picture: receipts are money coming in from commodity sales, while production expenses are costs. They are not interchangeable with net farm income, which is a broader profitability measure.
Net farm income versus net cash farm income
The September forecast also put net cash farm income at $154.1 billion, down $16.3 billion, or 9.6%, from 2023. It is a separate measure from the $140.0 billion net farm income headline.
- Net cash farm income is gross cash income minus cash expenses.
- Net farm income is a broader measure of profitability. It includes noncash items such as changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income.
Because the measures include different items, their dollar values and year-over-year changes differ. When citing a farm-income figure, identify which measure it represents.
How the December forecast changed the picture
USDA’s December 3, 2024 update raised the inflation-adjusted 2024 net farm income forecast to $140.7 billion, down $9.5 billion, or 6.3%, from 2023. The updated net cash farm income forecast was $158.8 billion, down $5.7 billion, or 3.5%.
In that December vintage, USDA projected commodity cash receipts of $516.9 billion, a decline of $16.6 billion, or 3.1%. Production expenses were expected to fall by $19.2 billion, or 4.1%. The September and December figures are successive forecasts, not conflicting estimates of the same vintage.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why the forecast date matters
ERS releases farm income and wealth statistics three times a year—early February, late August or early September, and late November or early December—and revises estimates as new source data become available. The September 2024 number is therefore a dated forecast, and the December update shows how that outlook changed as USDA incorporated more information.
For current figures, consult the USDA ERS farm-sector income forecast page. USDA says its displayed statistics are revised as new information becomes available; the page dates its displayed data as of September 3, 2026. Neither the September nor December 2024 forecast should be presented as the current outlook.
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