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No government or scientific assessment puts a $540 billion price tag on the lithium beneath California’s Salton Sea. That figure is a secondary estimate based on multiplying a prospective resource by an assumed price. The underlying finding is significant, but it is not a proven reserve, a saleable inventory, or a forecast of revenue.
The lithium is dissolved in deep geothermal brine near the Salton Sea, not sitting in the lake or its surface water. A U.S. Department of Energy-funded study estimated several resource categories, each with different access and technology assumptions. Recovering any of it commercially depends on projects that are still in development.
Where does the $540 billion figure come from?
The $540 billion headline is best understood as a gross, secondary calculation: an estimated quantity of lithium multiplied by an assumed market price. It is not a valuation published by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) or Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab). Neither agency’s cited assessment assigns the resource that dollar value.
A multiplication like this is not the same as estimating what a company could earn. It does not establish how much lithium can be recovered, the costs of wells and processing, when production might begin, what product would be sold, or what lithium prices will be then. Lithium metal, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide are different forms and should not be treated as interchangeable when comparing quantities or prices.
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The central scientific finding is about resource potential. Berkeley Lab’s December 2023 account of the analysis says the region could contain more than 3,400 kilotons of lithium with expected technology advances. That is not evidence that this amount is already economically recoverable.
What did the study estimate?
DOE’s November 2023 fact sheet divides the lithium resource into three categories. Its labels reflect different degrees of access and assumptions about technology; they should not be added together or described as three separate confirmed deposits.
| DOE category | Estimated lithium (Li) | What the label means in DOE’s fact sheet |
|---|---|---|
| Proven | 760 kilotons | Known to be accessible today. |
| Accessible | 2,600 kilotons | DOE’s estimate of what can be accessed today. |
| Probable | 3,400 kilotons | DOE’s estimate of what may be accessed in the future with technology advances. |
These are resource estimates, not annual production figures or a demonstrated reserve ready for sale. Berkeley Lab says the upper potential assumes access to the entire geothermal reservoir for electricity production and full extraction of lithium from the resulting brine. Accessing only part of the resource could still be significant, but the upper estimate is conditional on those assumptions. The DOE fact sheet and Berkeley Lab’s study announcement also equate the potential resource with more than 375 million EV batteries; that is an illustrative equivalence, not a prediction that those batteries will be made.
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Is the lithium actually beneath the Salton Sea?
Not beneath the lake as a solid deposit, and not in the lake’s surface water. The lithium is dissolved in geothermal brine in a deep underground reservoir around the southeast shore, within the Salton Sea Known Geothermal Resource Area. DOE says this reservoir is physically disconnected from the lake surface water. The distinction matters: extracting brine from geothermal wells is not the same as drawing lithium from the lake.
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How would geothermal lithium extraction work?
Direct lithium extraction (DLE) refers to techniques for separating lithium from brine. In the general process described by DOE, geothermal wells bring hot brine to the surface in connection with power generation. Operators remove interfering minerals and solids, then use an extraction circuit to separate lithium. Methods can include adsorption, electrochemical techniques, electrodialysis, and membranes or filters. Lithium-depleted brine is then returned to the geothermal reservoir.
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That is a general description, not a single required plant design. Developers may use different methods; for example, Project ATLiS describes its own proprietary ILiAD process. The brine’s geothermal energy and lithium potential are related, but a proposed lithium facility is not automatically evidence that extraction at commercial scale is technically or economically established.
What are the resource and production figures—and what do they mean?
DOE’s November 2023 fact sheet described the Salton Sea geothermal area as having 400 megawatts (MW) of existing generating capacity at that time, with potential geothermal capacity estimated at up to 2,950 MW. It estimated that the then-existing capacity produced 21,500 tons of lithium-in-brine annually, which DOE said was not being recovered. These are assessment figures from 2023, not verified current lithium output.
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Are companies already extracting lithium commercially?
The available project announcements describe development plans, not verified commercial operation. On January 15, 2025, DOE announced a conditional commitment for up to $1.36 billion in financing to SPV ESM ATLiS LLC, a subsidiary of EnergySource Minerals. DOE said the proposed Imperial County facility is expected to produce up to 20,000 metric tons of lithium hydroxide annually. The agency also said financing would be finalized only after technical, legal, environmental, and financial conditions were met.
“Up to” describes planned capacity, not achieved output, and a conditional financing commitment is not the same as a finalized loan or an operating plant. The California Energy Commission’s FAQ also describes ATLiS and Controlled Thermal Resources’ Hell’s Kitchen project as development plans. DOE’s ATLiS announcement provides the terms of the federal commitment; DOE’s lithium program page lists continuing research and funding activity, which demonstrates ongoing work rather than commercial-scale success at the Salton Sea.
What is known about water use and emissions?
DOE’s November 2023 fact sheet reported that DLE requires 99% less water per ton of lithium than current lithium-mining processes and emits almost no carbon dioxide. Those are DOE’s reported comparisons, not measured lifecycle results for a particular commercial Salton Sea plant.
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DOE’s geothermal FAQ cautions that commercial-scale water consumption for DLE at the Salton Sea is difficult to estimate while methods and commercial performance remain uncertain. It calls for transparent reporting from demonstrations. The deep geothermal reservoir’s separation from the lake surface water also means that lithium extraction should not be described as directly mining lithium from the lake; specific water use and environmental impacts still depend on the eventual project design and performance.
How to read the headline as a personal-finance claim
A very large resource estimate can sound like a guaranteed economic windfall, but it does not tell investors, taxpayers, or local residents how much money will be earned or who will receive it. The path from underground lithium to revenue includes successful extraction, processing into a marketable product, financing, permits, construction, operating costs, and a buyer at a viable price. The cited resource study does not establish those outcomes.
Quick Recap
- Resource is not reserve: the 3,400-kiloton probable category depends on future technology advances.
- Brine lithium is not finished product: the mass in the resource estimate and the planned metric tons of lithium hydroxide measure different things.
- Potential capacity is not actual output: a conditional commitment and proposed production rate do not show that a facility is operating.
- A dollar total depends on assumptions: a gross price multiplication does not account for recovery, costs, timing, product form, or changing prices.
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