Seasonal price patterns still show up, but they do not produce a reliable calendar for every shopper. A 2025 study of U.S. retail products found that seasonal demand varied substantially across categories, while average price changes between seasonal demand troughs and peaks were much smaller. In roughly two-thirds of seasonal categories, prices were lower when demand peaked—but that is a study finding, not a promise about any particular product.
When is the best time of year to buy a product?
There is no single best month that applies across products. The answer depends on the category, the market, and what the price data actually measure. A recurring seasonal pattern can help inform a purchase, but it is not a guarantee that a specific item will be cheapest at a particular time.
The strongest broad evidence here comes from a 2025 study by R. Andrew Butters, Daniel W. Sacks, and Boyoung Seo. The researchers examined 1,427 widely available UPCs across 41 categories at 24,500 food, drug, and mass-merchandise stores in the contiguous United States. In the median category, demand varied by about 20 log points between its seasonal trough and peak. Average price changes over that same span were much smaller—about 1.5 log points. Roughly two-thirds of seasonal categories had countercyclical prices, meaning prices were lower when seasonal demand peaked. Read the study in the RAND Journal of Economics.
Those averages describe the study’s products, retailers, geography, and period; they are not a forecast for every item or a universal shopping rule. The authors also found that demand became more responsive to discounts during seasonal peaks in just over 60% of seasonal categories. That is one possible demand-side explanation for lower prices during busy periods, not a mechanism established for every category.
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Do prices go down during seasonal sales?
Sometimes, but a seasonal sales event is not proof that a product’s price is at its annual low. Prices and demand can move differently, and a sale price is meaningful only in comparison with that product’s usual price. The 2025 study found that prices often moved counter to seasonal demand, but the average price movement was small relative to the demand swing.
An earlier supermarket-scanner study by Chevalier, Kashyap, and Rossi also found average prices falling during seasonal product-demand peaks. It analyzed one large supermarket chain over seven and a half years and attributed much of the price change to retail margins. Its setting is narrower than the later multi-store, multi-category study, so it should not be generalized to all retailers or products. Read the 2003 American Economic Review study.
Why price data can give a misleading seasonal signal
Average prices are not seasonally adjusted
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics says, “The BLS does not seasonally adjust average prices.” Changes in these series can reflect weather, harvests, school years, production cycles, holidays, or seasonal sales. The BLS also cautions that shifts in the products consumers buy and changes in product quality can affect average prices, so the series may not track an unchanged item over time. See the BLS explanation of average-price data.
Seasonally adjusted CPI history can be revised
The CPI is available in both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted forms. The BLS recalculates seasonal adjustment factors annually; its February 13, 2026 release revised adjusted indexes from January 2021 through December 2025. When comparing inflation trends, check which kind of series you are using and whether the adjusted history reflects a later revision. Read how seasonal adjustment works in the CPI.
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Sales seasonality is not price seasonality
Food-at-home sales illustrate why the distinction matters. USDA Economic Research Service data show that average daily inflation-adjusted sales from 2021 through 2025 generally rose toward November and December and often fell in January. In 2025, grocery-store sales ranged from $1,641 million in March to $1,735 million in November and December; warehouse-club and supercenter sales ranged from $721 million in January to $916 million in December; and sales at other food-at-home outlets ranged from $478 million in August to $608 million in December. These are sales figures, not prices, so they do not establish when food was cheapest. See USDA’s Food Expenditure Series.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to assess a seasonal price claim
Before relying on a claim such as “this is the cheapest month to buy,” check what is being compared. A sound comparison should identify:
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- Product and geography: A category-wide result from U.S. stores may not apply to a particular brand, retailer, or market.
- Measure: A posted or transaction price, an average price, and a price index answer different questions. Average prices may shift when the mix or quality of products changes.
- Adjustment status: Determine whether an index is seasonally adjusted. BLS average prices are not.
- Time period: Seasonal patterns can depend on the years observed. For adjusted CPI data, check for annual revisions to recent history.
- What varies: A pattern in demand or sales does not, by itself, demonstrate a matching pattern in prices.
For an individual purchase, compare the same product’s price over time rather than treating a category average or a holiday promotion as a guaranteed bargain. Seasonal evidence can show that timing matters in some categories; it cannot name one best purchase month for everything.
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