On March 10, 2025, a Successful Farming roundup highlighted three developments: wheat futures rose overnight amid dry-weather concerns in the Southern Plains, a USDA attaché forecast lower Chinese cattle output but slightly higher swine production for 2025, and forecasters warned of fire-weather and high-wind hazards across parts of the Midwest and Northern Plains. The figures and warnings below are historical snapshots from that date, not current market prices or forecasts.
Why did wheat futures rise overnight?
The March 10 roundup linked the overnight rise in wheat futures to concern about dry conditions in the Southern Plains. It reported little or no rain expected in much of Kansas that week, alongside windy, dry conditions and red flag warnings. About 25% of Kansas was experiencing drought conditions, according to the article.
The Kansas crop and soil figures cited in the roundup showed a mixed picture. USDA figures put topsoil moisture at 65% adequate or surplus, 25% short, and 10% very short. Winter wheat was rated 54% good or excellent, 32% fair, and 14% poor or very poor. These percentages were reported in the March 10, 2025 article and should not be read as current conditions.
The article’s overnight market snapshot was:
| Market | Reported overnight move and price |
|---|---|
| May Chicago Board of Trade wheat | Up 6½¢ to $5.57¾ a bushel |
| Kansas City wheat | Up 5½¢ to $5.70¼ a bushel |
| Corn | Down one tick to $4.69 a bushel |
| May soybeans | Down 5¢ to $10.20 a bushel |
| Soymeal | Unchanged at $304.40 a short ton |
| Soy oil | Down 1.03¢ to 42.39¢ a pound |
These were historical overnight figures reported on March 10, 2025, not live quotes. The source was Tony Dreibus, “3 Big Things Today, March 10, 2025,” Agriculture.com / Successful Farming.
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What did USDA forecast for China’s cattle and swine production in 2025?
The roundup summarized a report from USDA’s attaché in Beijing. Its forecasts pointed in different directions: a smaller calf crop but a slightly larger pig crop than the attaché had projected previously.
| Measure | 2025 forecast | Comparison reported March 10, 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| China calf crop | 45.6 million head | Reduced from an earlier forecast of 52 million; the prior year’s crop was 47.5 million head |
| China pig crop | 705 million head | Up from an earlier forecast of 700 million; the prior year’s output was just under 705 million |
Cattle: lower forecast amid poor producer profitability
The attaché’s 45.6 million-head calf-crop forecast was below both its previous projection and the prior year’s reported total. The article connected the weaker cattle outlook with falling beef prices and reduced profitability, despite lower feed costs. It reported a USDA estimate that about 70% of China’s cattle producers were losing money, with losses persisting in 2023 and 2024. The attaché report put the pressure this way: “While feed costs, a major cost for cattle production, decreased, beef prices fell even further.”
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Swine: modest growth expected despite lower sow inventory
The forecast for 705 million pigs was slightly above the attaché’s earlier projection, while remaining close to the prior year’s output. The report expected improved husbandry practices and industry consolidation to raise the number of pigs produced per sow each year. Lower sow inventory, however, was expected to restrain growth. The attaché report said: “Post forecasts swine production to grow in 2025 due to higher pigs per sow per year because of improved animal husbandry practices and industry consolidation.”
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The March 10 roundup described dry conditions in parts of the Midwest and intense winds in the Northern Plains. It listed red flag warnings in parts of South Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri. The National Weather Service warning quoted in the article said, “Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.”
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Southern Iowa and northern Missouri
For southern Iowa and northern Missouri, the article reported forecast sustained winds of 20–25 mph, gusts up to 35 mph, and relative humidity near 20%. Those conditions were part of the date-specific fire-weather forecast, not an active warning today.
Central North Dakota
For central North Dakota, the roundup reported gusts up to 65 mph and warned of possible damage, power outages, and difficult travel, especially for high-profile vehicles. It quoted the NWS forecast: “The high winds may damage roofs, small outbuildings and signs. Tree branches may be broken and lead to power outages. Travel will be difficult, especially with high-profile vehicles.” These were forecast details published March 10, 2025, rather than current conditions.
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