As of October 11, 2026, the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) had not been finalized. Forecasts reported in late September and early October were around 3.4% to 3.6%; the available figures do not support saying the estimate is nearing 4.7%. The last data point needed for the calculation—the September 2026 CPI-W reading—was scheduled for release on October 14.
What is the 2027 Social Security COLA estimate?
Current forecasts cited in late September and early October put the 2027 COLA around 3.4% to 3.6%. Two specific projections were 3.5%: Nowflation’s October 2 estimate and The Senior Citizens League’s estimate, as reported by Kiplinger. Kiplinger staff economist David Payne projected 3.6%. These are third-party forecasts, not an official Social Security Administration (SSA) determination.
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The 4.7% figure in the headline is not corroborated by these current forecasts. Because the September CPI-W data were not yet available as of October 11, even the lower projections remained provisional.
| Source and date | Reported 2027 COLA estimate | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Nowflation, October 2, 2026 | 3.5% | Third-party projection; its page said two of the three third-quarter CPI-W readings were actual and the remaining month was forecast. Nowflation’s estimate |
| The Senior Citizens League, reported by Kiplinger | 3.5% | Forecast, not an SSA announcement. Kiplinger’s report |
| David Payne, Kiplinger staff economist | 3.6% | Forecast, not an SSA announcement. Kiplinger’s report |
The forecasts are useful as estimates, not as guarantees. The available reporting does not independently audit each forecaster’s formula or rounding, so readers should compare the publication date, whether all three July–September readings were actual, and whether a figure is clearly labeled a forecast.
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How does the SSA calculate the COLA?
The SSA compares the average CPI-W for July, August and September of the year in which a COLA was last determined with the average for July, August and September of the current year. The CPI-W is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. The SSA’s COLA information page explains the method and says the adjustment is intended to help prevent inflation from eroding the purchasing power of Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits.
Because September 2026 completes the third quarter, its CPI-W reading was needed for the final 2027 calculation. A year-over-year change in one month’s CPI-W is not interchangeable with the COLA, which depends on the comparison of third-quarter averages across years.
What did the latest CPI-W data show?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported an August 2026 CPI-W index level of 328.481 (1982–84=100), up 3.5% over the 12 months ending in August. That 3.5% is the index’s one-year change, not the 2027 COLA. The distinction matters: the COLA uses third-quarter averages, and the September value had not yet been published as of October 11. See the BLS August 2026 CPI release.
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When would the September data and official COLA be available?
BLS scheduled the September 2026 CPI report for Wednesday, October 14, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. That report was the next key data point for completing the third-quarter comparison. Until the September figure was available and the SSA published its determination, any 2027 COLA percentage remained a forecast. The release schedule is listed on the BLS CPI release calendar.
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What could a COLA percentage mean for an individual payment?
A COLA percentage alone does not specify each beneficiary’s dollar increase. The resulting amount depends on the person’s benefit and any other applicable adjustments. For context, the SSA set the 2026 COLA at 2.8%; the increase applied to Social Security benefits payable in January 2026, while SSI increases began December 31, 2025. That prior-year adjustment is historical context, not a prediction for 2027. Details are on the SSA’s COLA information page.
The CPI-W is a population-specific price index, not a personalized measure of every beneficiary’s expenses. A published COLA may therefore differ from the change a particular household experiences in rent, food, health care or other costs.
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