Forecasts issued ahead of 2024 pointed to much slower rent growth than the sharp increases of 2021–22. They did not agree on one national figure: Realtor.com projected a slight decline in its median asking-rent measure, Apartment List expected growth below the low single digits, and Zillow reported its typical-rent measure was still rising in January 2024. These were different measures, not competing readings of one identical index.
Will rent go up in 2024?
Forecasters expected rent movement to cool, but their projections varied by publisher and measure. Realtor.com Economic Research forecast a 0.2% decline in median asking rents for 2024. Apartment List’s Economics Team expected rent growth to remain below the low single digits, while rising out of negative territory early in the year. Zillow’s January 2024 report, by contrast, said its typical-rent measure was up 3.4% year over year, at $1,958.
Those figures describe distinct measures and time windows: an annual forecast for advertised asking rents, an expected path for Apartment List’s rent measure, and Zillow’s reported year-over-year reading. They should not be averaged or treated as identical estimates. Zillow also said single-family rent growth was expected to remain stronger than apartment rent growth into 2024.
Realtor.com’s forecast table put its median asking-rent growth expectations at 0.2% for 2023 and 10.8% for 2022, compared with its -0.2% forecast for 2024. The contrast captures the expected shift from exceptional increases to a much flatter market.
Were rents expected to fall?
Some forecasts did point to slight declines, but that was not a universal prediction for every rent measure or home. Realtor.com’s -0.2% figure was a forecast for its national median asking-rent measure; Apartment List anticipated a return to positive growth early in 2024, and Zillow’s January report showed its typical-rent measure increasing year over year.
Asking rents on newly listed homes are not the same as the amount every current tenant pays. A national listing measure cannot establish what will happen to an existing lease at renewal, or to rents in a particular city, neighborhood, or property type. Household experience could therefore differ from the national forecasts.
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Why were rent increases expected to slow?
More apartments were reaching the market
Realtor.com tied its outlook to new multifamily supply coming through while demand remained meaningful. Its forecast cited 385,000 annualized multifamily completions in 2023’s third quarter, a rental vacancy rate of 6.6% in that quarter as cited from U.S. Census Bureau data, and a record construction pipeline. More available rental homes and rising vacancy can reduce landlords’ ability to raise asking rents quickly, although Realtor.com cautioned that renter demand would limit the price effect.
The market was cooling after a sharp surge
Apartment List described a cooldown following the surge in 2021 and early 2022. Its series showed national year-over-year rent growth falling from an 18% peak to -1.1% by late 2023. That is Apartment List’s measure, separate from Realtor.com’s asking-rent figures.
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Near-term supply and future construction were not the same story
Apartment List also noted that developers responded to higher interest rates, with permits and starts falling. Apartments already under construction could add supply in the near term and moderate rents, even as fewer new projects started could restrain additions later. The forecasts therefore did not imply that supply would keep growing at the same pace indefinitely.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What happened by the end of 2024?
In a report published in 2025 on December 2024 data, Realtor.com reported its median asking-rent measure was down 1.1% year over year. That is an observed later reading, not a forecast issued before 2024, and it applies to Realtor.com’s own series rather than every rent index or renter’s bill.
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How to interpret the forecasts for your budget
- Identify the measure. A median asking rent for advertised listings, a typical-rent index, and another publisher’s rent series can show different changes.
- Check the time basis. An annual projection, a January year-over-year reading, and a December year-over-year observation answer different questions.
- Separate apartments from houses. Zillow’s January 2024 report expected single-family rents to grow more strongly than apartment rents.
- Use local and lease-specific information for a decision. These national figures do not predict a particular city, property, or lease renewal.
- Do not equate slower growth with affordability. A rent that rises more slowly may still be costly, and a national average does not reveal an individual household’s housing burden.
Sources
- Realtor.com Economic Research, 2024 National Housing Market Predictions and Forecast
- Apartment List, 7 Predictions for the 2024 Rental Market
- Zillow Research, January 2024 Rental Market Report
- Realtor.com, December 2024 Rental Report
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