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Indian stocks plunged in the first weeks of the COVID-19 shock, then surged to record highs. SEBI’s figures show the scale of that reversal: in financial year 2019–20, the Sensex fell 23.8% and the Nifty 50 fell 26%; in FY 2020–21, they rose 68% and 70.9%, respectively. Those are financial-year returns—not returns for calendar year 2020. As 2021 began, the rally made further volatility a reasonable concern, but the available figures did not establish how the rest of the calendar year would unfold.
Why 2020 felt like a rollercoaster
The pandemic shock brought a sharp sell-off, followed by a powerful recovery that carried both major benchmarks to record highs. SEBI’s 2022 account puts the market’s movements in financial-year terms, with FY 2019–20 ending on March 31, 2020, and FY 2020–21 running through March 31, 2021.
| Period or date | Sensex | Nifty 50 | What the figures show |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2019–20 | Down 23.8% | Down 26% | Financial-year decline, as reported by SEBI |
| April 3, 2020 | 27,501 | 8,056 | SEBI-reported lows during FY 2020–21 |
| February 16, 2021 | 52,517 | 15,432 | Then-record highs, as reported by SEBI |
| March 31, 2021 | 49,509 | 14,690.7 | Financial-year-end closes, as reported by SEBI |
| FY 2020–21 | Up 68% | Up 70.9% | Financial-year gain, as reported by SEBI |
Source for all table figures: SEBI, “Snapshot of the Equity Markets in India” (September 2022). Index levels are points; percentage changes describe performance over the stated financial year. The March 31 closes are not calendar-year 2020 closing values.
How big was the fall and rebound?
The fall and subsequent gain occurred across a financial-year boundary. The April 3, 2020 lows and February 16, 2021 records show how far the indices moved between those dates, but they are not the basis for the FY percentage returns in the table. A trough-to-peak comparison uses different endpoints from a financial-year return, so the figures should not be treated as interchangeable.
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Index points also are not percentage returns. The Sensex and Nifty 50 have different index levels, so comparing their raw point changes alone would not show which delivered the larger return. SEBI’s reported financial-year percentages provide the direct comparison: the Nifty 50’s FY 2020–21 gain was 70.9%, versus 68% for the Sensex.
What volatility looked like
SEBI describes India VIX as a measure of investors’ perception of the risk of sharp market swings, based on options prices. It reached a lifetime intraday high of 86.6 on March 24, 2020, then stood at 20.6 on March 31, 2021. The contrast captures the extraordinary uncertainty during the initial shock and the subsequent easing in expected near-term swings; it does not mean that market risk had disappeared.
What investors could see in early 2021
The Government of India’s Economic Survey 2020–21 reported record closing levels on January 20, 2021: 49,792.12 for the Sensex and 14,644.7 for the Nifty 50. That was a snapshot at a particular point in the financial year. It was not a dependable forecast of the full calendar year’s performance or proof that the rally would continue at the same pace.
In its later account, SEBI attributed the FY 2020–21 rally primarily to large foreign portfolio investment inflows, global monetary easing, and substantial fiscal stimulus in the United States, Europe, and other advanced economies. This is SEBI’s explanation of major contributing factors, not proof that any one factor—or that list alone—caused the gains.
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The early-2021 question was therefore whether conditions could keep changing sharply, not whether a full-year outcome was already known. The historical figures establish a dramatic decline and recovery; they do not establish a reliable forecast for calendar 2021.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What these figures do—and do not—tell you
- They describe benchmarks, not every investment. The Sensex and Nifty 50 figures do not establish how individual shares or sectors performed.
- They show past movement, not whether prices were justified. The figures do not settle whether valuations were reasonable.
- They are not a personal investment recommendation. A sharp rebound after a sharp fall does not predict the next market move.
Sources: SEBI, “Snapshot of the Equity Markets in India” (September 2022); Government of India, Economic Survey 2020–21, financial markets section (January 2021).
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