The “nearly 2%” decline was a forecast for 2025, reported in April of that year—not Zillow’s current outlook. The April 24, 2025 AOL report attributed a 1.9% expected drop in home values to Zillow. Zillow’s September 18, 2026 forecast instead projected 1.2% annual growth in its typical-home-value index by December 2026. Those are forecasts made at different times, not observed results.
What Zillow’s nearly 2% prediction meant
The headline figure refers to a projected 1.9% decline in home values during 2025, as reported by AOL on April 24, 2025. It is a historical forecast, not a report of what prices actually did and not a forecast for the end of 2026. The original Zillow release behind the 1.9% figure is not available in the cited material, so the exact index and comparison period behind that number cannot be confirmed. The figure should therefore be attributed to AOL’s account of Zillow’s forecast, rather than presented as a directly verified Zillow statistic.
No observed end-of-2025 result is established by the available sources. A prediction and the eventual result are different things; the reported 1.9% should not be treated as proof that home prices fell by that amount.
What Zillow forecast for the end of 2026
Zillow’s September 18, 2026 forecast projected 1.2% annual growth in its Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), which tracks typical home values, by December 2026. That is a national forecast for a particular measure and horizon. It does not establish what will happen in any individual city or to a particular home.
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Zillow also reported inventory up 10.1% year over year and described rising inventory and price cuts as giving buyers more options and negotiating power. The company cited high mortgage rates in its weaker sales outlook. These are Zillow’s assessment of market conditions, not a guarantee that every buyer will find lower prices or have the same bargaining position locally.
How Zillow’s 2026 home-value forecast changed
Zillow revised its expected year-over-year change in typical home values by December 2026 over successive releases:
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| Forecast release | Projected typical-home-value growth by December 2026 |
|---|---|
| June 23, 2026 | +0.1% (Zillow Research forecast) |
| July 20, 2026 | −0.2% (Zillow Research forecast) |
| August 26, 2026 | +0.3% (Zillow Research forecast) |
| September 18, 2026 | +1.2% (Zillow Research forecast) |
The revisions reflect changing expectations, not a sequence of measured price outcomes. Each figure is a forecast made on its release date for the same end-of-year horizon; it should be read with that date and measure attached.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Home prices and home sales are not the same forecast
Zillow’s September outlook projected different directions for home values and sales volume. It expected positive annual growth in typical home values by December, while forecasting its own existing-home-sales count to decline 3.5% year over year in the fourth quarter. For comparison, that release projected a 2.8% Q4 decline using the National Association of Realtors’ existing-home-sales measure. Zillow also projected full-year existing-home-sales growth of 1.2% using its measure and 0.5% using the NAR measure.
Sales count measures transactions; ZHVI measures typical home values. A forecast for fewer sales does not mean Zillow forecast falling prices. Nor should Zillow’s and NAR’s sales figures be combined as though they were one series.
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How to read a home-price forecast
- Check the release date. Forecasts can change; Zillow’s 2026 ZHVI outlook moved from slightly positive to slightly negative and back to positive across its June–September releases.
- Check the target period. A prediction for December 2025 is not a prediction for December 2026.
- Check the measure. Typical-home-value growth, Zillow’s sales count, and NAR’s sales measure answer different questions.
- Check the geography. A national forecast does not specify the outlook for your metro area or property. The 2025 secondary report mentions regional differences but does not establish the methodology of the original Zillow forecast.
- Separate forecast from outcome. A projection is an estimate made at a point in time; it is not an observed change or a promise about future prices.
Sources
- AOL’s April 24, 2025 report on the 1.9% 2025 forecast.
- Zillow Research, June 23, 2026 forecast.
- Zillow Research, July 20, 2026 forecast.
- Zillow Research, August 26, 2026 forecast.
- Zillow Research, September 18, 2026 forecast, including its sales outlook.
- Zillow Research, September 2026 inventory report.
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