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The Federal Reserve has not signaled that it will hold rates at its October meeting. It raised its benchmark range on September 16, and officials have described the next decision as dependent on incoming data. That means borrowing and savings costs could still change—and an October hold, if it occurs, would not guarantee lower mortgage rates.
Will the Fed raise rates again in October?
It is not known. On September 16, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 12–0 to raise its target range by a quarter percentage point, to 3.75%–4.00%. The Fed cited solid economic activity and elevated inflation, and said the move was intended to support a timelier return to its 2% inflation goal. Read the Fed’s September 16 statement.
On October 1, Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson said future policy adjustments should be determined by trends in the data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks. He did not announce or promise a hold. Jefferson noted that 12-month PCE inflation was 3.4% in August and described inflation risks as tilted upward, while activity and employment risks seemed roughly balanced. His speech also discussed energy, AI-investment and trade-policy shocks. These were his views, not necessarily those of the full committee. Read Jefferson’s October 1 speech.
There is also a reason not to read the remarks as a clear no-hike signal: New York Fed President John C. Williams said that, if the economy followed his forecast, one further increase late in the year might be appropriate. He added that this was his forecast and that policymakers had time to gather information. It was not a commitment by the FOMC. Read Williams’s September 29 remarks.
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The Fed’s economic projections released with the September decision are individual participants’ assessments, not a binding decision about the next meeting. See the September projections release.
What a rate increase or hold could mean for your money
Credit cards and other variable-rate debt
Most credit-card APRs are variable and tied to the prime rate, which generally responds quickly to Federal Reserve benchmark moves. If you carry a balance, a policy increase can raise borrowing costs, subject to your card’s terms and when its rate changes. A hold would avoid a new increase from that particular decision, but it would not erase an existing balance or necessarily change every borrower’s APR immediately. AP’s consumer-finance report explains the rate channels.
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If you are considering a balance-transfer card, compare the transfer fee, introductory period, eligibility, APR after the offer ends and a realistic payoff schedule. The promotion only helps if its terms and your repayment plan make sense for your situation.
Savings accounts and CDs
The Fed does not set the rates banks pay on consumer savings accounts or certificates of deposit. Providers set those rates, which can respond to policy changes but do not have to move one-for-one. A variable-rate account may offer easier access to funds; a CD can lock a rate for a set term, usually with an early-withdrawal penalty. Compare current APY, minimum balance, access, term and penalties. No dated, comparable national savings-rate figure is established here, so check provider terms rather than relying on a general rate forecast.
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Mortgages
Mortgage rates are shaped by longer-term yields and market expectations, not just the federal-funds rate. Inflation, Fed policy, bond investors’ expectations and the 10-year Treasury yield all matter. An October hold therefore would not, by itself, ensure mortgage rates fall.
In an October 2, 2026 report, the Associated Press said Freddie Mac’s average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.28%, up from 7.03% the previous week and 6.34% a year earlier. These are dated market averages, not an offer to any individual borrower. Read AP’s mortgage-rate report.
When comparing loans, review dated lender quotes, fixed versus adjustable terms, points and fees, monthly payment and total interest. A rate headline alone does not show what a particular mortgage will cost.
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What to watch before making a financial decision
- The FOMC’s actual decision: Distinguish a committee action from an individual official’s forecast or assessment.
- Inflation and economic data: Jefferson specifically pointed to data trends, the outlook and the balance of risks as inputs to future decisions.
- Your product’s terms: Check the actual APR or APY, fees, rate-change terms, term length, liquidity and total cost rather than assuming a financial product will move in step with the Fed.
- Your own timeline: Avoid making a major borrowing, saving or home-buying decision solely on a prediction about the next Fed move.
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