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Not necessarily. CMS projects lower average Medicare Advantage premiums in 2027, but that does not tell you whether your own annual costs will fall. Copays, deductibles, drug costs, provider networks and extra benefits vary by plan and location, and reports point to expected cuts and plan exits at some insurers. Check your plan’s actual 2027 terms before deciding.
What CMS projects for Medicare Advantage in 2027
CMS’s September 28, 2026 outlook forecasts lower average premiums and a broadly stable number of available plans. These are nationwide projections, not promises about any individual plan or county.
| Measure | 2026 | 2027 projection | What it describes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weighted-average monthly Medicare Advantage premium | $14.37 | $12, a projected 16.5% decline | Average across MA plans, including plans with prescription-drug coverage and Special Needs Plans; CMS, 2026. |
| Average monthly Part D total premium for MA plans with drug coverage | $11.32 | $7, a projected 38% decline | Drug premium after MA rebates; this is separate from Part C medical cost sharing. CMS, 2026. |
| Number of available MA plans nationwide | 5,553 | Approximately 5,532 | CMS expects the national total to remain relatively stable; local availability can differ. |
CMS also projects that more than 99% of Medicare beneficiaries will have access to at least one MA plan and 97% to 10 or more choices. That does not mean the same plans, doctors or benefits will be available in every county. CMS estimates about eight in 10 MA beneficiaries will remain in their current plan with the same or a lower premium. That estimate concerns premiums, not total out-of-pocket spending.
Why a lower average premium may not mean lower costs for you
A premium is only one part of what you may pay. Your yearly spending also depends on the care you use and the plan’s cost sharing, drug coverage and provider access. A plan with a lower premium could still cost you more overall if, for example, your prescriptions or regular services become more expensive under its 2027 terms.
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The national averages cannot establish whether your plan’s premium, deductible, copays, coinsurance, maximum out-of-pocket limit or network will change. The reviewed information does not establish county-level 2027 changes to those terms. Use the plan’s 2027 documents for your county rather than treating a national projection as your personal forecast.
Are Medicare Advantage benefits being cut in 2027?
There is no basis for saying that every plan is cutting benefits. CMS projects supplemental benefit offerings, including hearing, dental and vision, will remain stable overall. September 2026 reporting by Axios describes expected reductions and market exits at some insurers, based on analyst and insurer statements. An aggregate national projection can coexist with cuts at selected plans: neither finding determines what a particular plan will offer.
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Axios reported Humana’s estimate that plan exits would affect around 600,000 members. That is the company’s estimate as reported by Axios, not a CMS count of everyone affected across Medicare Advantage. If your plan is leaving your area or changing, rely on the notice and 2027 materials for your own coverage.
What the 2027 federal payment and drug-rule figures mean
CMS finalized a projected average 2.48% increase in payments to MA plans for 2027, or more than $13 billion. With the estimated risk-score trend included, CMS gives a figure of 4.98%; its fact sheet says the overall expected average change excludes an underlying coding trend that CMS expects to increase average MA risk scores by 2.50%. These are measures of federal payments to plans, not amounts beneficiaries will pay in premiums or cost sharing. They do not show a direct dollar-for-dollar change in an enrollee’s benefits or bill.
CMS’s final Contract Year 2027 rule also implements Part D prescription-drug changes for 2027 and beyond. They include eliminating the coverage-gap phase, establishing a reduced annual out-of-pocket threshold, removing cost sharing in the catastrophic phase and incorporating the Manufacturer Discount Program. Those are drug-benefit provisions; they should not be described as a general increase in medical-service copays under Medicare Advantage.
How to compare your plan with 2027 alternatives
Compare the coverage against the care you expect to use, not just the monthly premium. Medicare.gov Plan Finder is CMS’s recommended place to compare plans’ premiums, costs, benefits and coverage information. Check the relevant plan’s 2027 Evidence of Coverage and Summary of Benefits as well; the plan documents are the source for its actual terms.
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- Total expected annual spending: Consider the premium along with the likely costs of your regular appointments, procedures and prescriptions.
- Medical cost sharing: Check the deductible and service-specific copays or coinsurance for the care you expect to need.
- Maximum out-of-pocket limit: Compare the limit for covered Part A and Part B services so you understand your exposure if you need substantial care.
- Prescriptions: If the plan includes drug coverage, check the formulary, your medications’ costs and the plan’s pharmacy terms.
- Providers and access: Confirm that your doctors, hospitals and other providers are in the network. Review referral and prior-authorization rules that could affect access to care.
- Extra benefits: Verify that benefits you expect to use, such as dental, hearing or vision coverage, are included in the plan’s 2027 terms and suit your needs.
A plan that works well for one person may not work as well for another: the comparison depends on county, providers, prescriptions and likely care needs.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.When to review coverage and where to get help
CMS says 2027 Open Enrollment runs from October 15 through December 7, 2026. Use Medicare.gov Plan Finder to compare available options, or call 1-800-MEDICARE for help. CMS Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz urged beneficiaries to use Open Enrollment to review coverage and compare options with their needs and budget; that is guidance to review your choices, not evidence that any one plan’s costs will rise or fall.
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If you have limited income and resources, check whether you may qualify for a Medicare Savings Program. These state-administered programs can help with premiums and, depending on the program, deductibles, coinsurance and copayments. Eligibility and applications are handled by states.
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