No official finding shows that Italian pasta prices in US stores will double. The widely cited 107% figure was an earlier proposed scenario, not the final March 2026 antidumping margin. For the companies and groups covered by that review, the final margins ranged from 2.65% to 7.00%. Those customs rates do not predict the price a shopper will pay.
What happened to the 107% tariff figure?
The 107% figure described an earlier proposed scenario. It was not the final antidumping margin announced by the US Department of Commerce on March 12, 2026. Commerce’s final review results set lower, company-specific margins for the reviewed imports.
In its final notice, Commerce reported weighted-average dumping margins for imports entered from July 1, 2023, through June 30, 2024:
| Company or group | Final antidumping margin |
|---|---|
| La Molisana | 2.65% |
| Pastificio Lucio Garofalo | 7.00% |
| Non-selected companies | 5.21% |
These are final margins for a defined administrative review, not a blanket rate for every Italian pasta product or a forecast of grocery inflation. Commerce says the results also establish cash-deposit rates for future imports covered by the review.
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What the separate countervailing-duty review found
Commerce finalized a different proceeding in July 2026: a countervailing-duty review concerning subsidies during the period January 1 through December 31, 2023. It reported these company-specific rates:
| Company or group | Final countervailing-duty rate |
|---|---|
| De Matteis Agroalimentare | 3.32% |
| Granoro | 3.21% |
| Non-examined companies | 3.32% |
This is not the same proceeding as the March antidumping review: the legal basis, review period and named companies differ. Do not add rates together to estimate a consumer price increase. Whether both measures apply depends on the specific product, exporter and import entry.
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Why duty rates do not tell you the shelf price
A customs margin or deposit requirement is not a measured change in a supermarket’s price. The official results establish trade-duty findings and deposit mechanics; they do not report actual retail prices or forecast what shoppers will pay. A duty rate by itself therefore cannot support the claim that prices will double.
Retail prices can reflect costs and decisions beyond customs duties, including other expenses in the supply chain and a seller’s pricing. Without product- and brand-specific price data over time, the size of any shelf-price effect is not established by these rulings.
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Commerce identifies the merchandise as pasta from Italy and refers readers to the underlying case record for the full scope. An older order notice described certain non-egg dry pasta in packages up to five pounds four ounces and listed exclusions, including qualifying certified organic pasta. The current public summary does not provide the complete legal scope, so it would be inaccurate to say every Italian pasta product is covered.
For shoppers comparing a particular package, the brand and country of origin alone may not settle whether a specific customs measure applies. The product must fall within the legal scope, and the relevant company and entry details matter.
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What US shoppers can reasonably conclude
- The 107% figure was a proposed scenario, not the final March 2026 antidumping margin.
- The final antidumping margins in that review were 2.65% for La Molisana, 7.00% for Garofalo and 5.21% for non-selected companies.
- A distinct review covering 2023 subsidies produced separate countervailing-duty rates in July 2026.
- Neither set of official rates establishes that retail prices doubled or specifies how much a given package might cost.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
