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Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →The pound edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday, 2 October 2026, after U.S. payroll growth came in far below expectations and traders reduced the amount of Federal Reserve tightening they had priced in. Pound Sterling Live reported GBP/USD at 1.3231 that afternoon, after sterling had held around 1.32 during the week. That is a dated intraday quote, not a live exchange rate.
Why was the pound up against the dollar?
The immediate trigger was a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report. The U.S. added 29,000 jobs in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ archived Employment Situation release. Pound Sterling Live cited a market consensus of 90,000, so the result was a substantial miss against expectations. The 90,000 figure was a forecast, not a government statistic.
The report also showed an unemployment rate of 4.2%, up from 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% month to month, below the 0.3% consensus cited by Pound Sterling Live, while annual wage growth was 3.0%. These details added to the impression of a softer labor market, but a single monthly report does not establish a lasting trend.
The Associated Press also reported 29,000 jobs added and described the pace as below expectations and slower than August’s reported net hiring of 133,000. The payroll figure is from the BLS; comparisons with forecasts and market reactions are reported by news outlets.
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What did the jobs report mean for GBP/USD?
Currency markets react not only to economic data but to how it may change the expected path of interest rates. After the report, Pound Sterling Live said market pricing put the perceived chance of an October Federal Reserve rate hike at about 25%, down from around 70% a week earlier. That was a market-implied probability at the time, not a Fed forecast or a commitment by policymakers.
The same report put around 19 basis points of Bank of England tightening into market pricing for its 5 November meeting, compared with around 5 basis points of Fed tightening priced for October. This contrast helped explain why sterling found support against the dollar: traders were pricing more near-term tightening from the BoE than from the Fed. Neither figure meant a rate change was certain.
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The AP gave a separate snapshot based on CME Group data: a 23% probability of an October Fed hike, down from 64% a week earlier. Its figures differ from Pound Sterling Live’s reported probabilities and should be treated as a distinct, differently timed market snapshot, not combined into one exact estimate.
Does weak U.S. jobs data mean the dollar will keep falling?
Not necessarily. A softer payroll report can weigh on the dollar if traders expect it to reduce the likelihood of higher U.S. interest rates. But the currency response can change as new data arrives, and one report is not enough to show that employment is deteriorating persistently.
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George Brown, Senior Economist at Schroders, told Pound Sterling Live: “One softer payrolls print is unlikely to be enough to convince policymakers that the labour market is undergoing a sustained deterioration.” September U.S. inflation data, including CPI, remained an important upcoming input for expectations about Fed policy. If inflation data or later employment releases shift those expectations, the dollar could recover some ground.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What should readers take from the move?
- The October 2 GBP/USD quote of 1.3231 was an intraday observation reported by Pound Sterling Live, not a current rate.
- The jobs result was weaker than the 90,000 consensus cited by Pound Sterling Live, helping prompt a reassessment of near-term Fed rate expectations.
- Market pricing suggested a relative near-term tightening advantage for the BoE, but it did not confirm what either central bank would do.
- For a real GBP-to-USD payment or transfer, check the provider’s current exchange rate, fees, delivery time and whether the rate is locked. A market news quote is not necessarily the rate available to an individual customer.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 2026 Employment Situation; Pound Sterling Live, 2 October 2026; Associated Press, September jobs report coverage.
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