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During the 2024 Trump–Harris race, Polymarket’s odds at times gave Donald Trump a better chance of winning than polling-based forecasts did. That did not mean the market was a poll or that victory was certain: polls estimate voters’ stated preferences or vote share, while a prediction market price reflects trading on a specified outcome. The figures are historical, not live odds.
What did Polymarket say, and when?
On October 25, 2024, Axios reported Polymarket put Trump’s chance of winning at 59.3%, while FiveThirtyEight’s forecast put it at 51%. Those numbers are a same-day snapshot, not a campaign-long average; they also refer to different kinds of estimates.
A 2025 retrospective study of Polymarket’s historical data says the market’s national Trump probability peaked near 67% in October and stayed above 55% through Election Day. The study found Trump favored at all but two observed time points in its national data, while results varied by state. It noted that Michigan and Wisconsin showed patterns in which polls may have been superior. These findings describe the 2024 contest and the study’s analysis, not current probabilities or a guarantee about future elections.
Why betting odds and polls can disagree
As The Oracle by Polymarket put it in an October 21, 2024 explainer, “The key difference between polls and Polymarket is their output: Polls estimate vote share, while prediction markets and election models estimate the odds of a certain outcome.” The distinction matters: a candidate’s share of intended votes is not the same quantity as the probability that the candidate wins.
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- Polls survey people and estimate how respondents say they will vote or the share of the vote a candidate may receive. Their results depend on survey sampling and weighting.
- Prediction markets price contracts tied to a defined result, such as who wins. The price changes as participants trade, so it reflects market supply and demand—not a representative sample of voters.
Polymarket describes its election contract price as the level at which shares trade on its order book. Kalshi likewise explains prices through participant supply and demand; its example treats a 65-cent contract as an implied 65% probability. That interpretation explains how to read a price, but it does not establish that a market is unbiased or that traders represent the electorate. Odds can also move as new information and orders arrive.
What may have pushed the odds toward Trump?
Trading activity can move a market, especially when the pool of participants or available liquidity is limited. Axios reported concerns from experts that large bets could sway prices when there were not enough participants to absorb them. Brad Allen, senior analyst at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming, told Axios on October 25, 2024: “These markets can be moved by big money, and that big money is not necessarily making bets based on who they think is actually going to win the election.”
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The 2025 retrospective study also records that the Trump-favoring trend coincided with large bets placed by one person across multiple accounts. It says the degree and effect of manipulation remain debated. A price shift or a large bet is not, by itself, proof that anyone manipulated the market; the available findings do not establish that conclusion.
How to compare a market price with a forecast
Before deciding that a betting site “disagreed with the polls,” check whether the figures describe the same thing and were measured at the same time. A useful comparison asks:
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1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors- What is the outcome? A national popular-vote result, Electoral College winner, state winner, and a contract with another resolution rule are not interchangeable.
- When was the figure recorded? Election odds can change quickly. Pair a dated market price with a forecast from the same date rather than comparing different points in the campaign.
- What process produced it? Polls rely on survey sampling and weighting; markets rely on trades and participant demand.
- How concentrated or deep is the market? Trader mix, market depth, and large orders can affect prices.
- How is accuracy scored? Any claim that one method did better needs a common resolution date and scoring method.
What the 2024 result does—and does not—show
Two 2025 research sources report that Polymarket performed better than polling in predicting the 2024 result, particularly across swing-state outcomes. One calls for further investigation before drawing broad conclusions. The retrospective study’s state-level findings are not uniform, and the evidence here does not supply one common, independently applied score comparing every market platform with every polling model.
Polymarket’s market page also displays a 94% one-month accuracy score. That is a platform claim in current page content accessed October 3, 2026, not a third-party comparison of the Trump–Harris forecast; it should not be used as independent proof that Polymarket’s 2024 odds were accurate.
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Sources
- Axios, “What’s behind Trump’s big lead in prediction markets” (October 25, 2024), for the dated Polymarket and FiveThirtyEight figures and expert concerns about large bets.
- The Oracle by Polymarket, “Polymarket Voodoo” (October 21, 2024), for the platform’s explanation of market prices and how they differ from polls.
- Kalshi News, “How election prediction markets work,” for its explanation of supply-and-demand pricing and implied probabilities.
- “Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?” (2025), for the retrospective Polymarket analysis.
- The paper’s arXiv abstract (2025), for its broader conclusion and call for further work.
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