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China imported 9.13 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in January and February 2025, up 84.1% from 4.96 million tons in the same months of 2024, according to Reuters. The increase was concentrated in a two-month window: it reflected tariff-related buying and a temporary gap in Brazilian supply, not evidence by itself of a lasting shift toward U.S. soybeans.
What the 84% increase measures
The figure compares customs imports from the United States in January–February 2025 with arrivals from the same origin in January–February 2024. It is not a full-year change, a measure of purchase commitments, or a current-year trend. The reported volumes rose by about 4.17 million metric tons, from 4.96 million to 9.13 million, and Reuters described the year-over-year increase as 84.1%.
China’s total soybean imports rose much less over the same period: 4.4%, to 13.61 million metric tons. Imports from Brazil, meanwhile, fell 48.4% to 3.59 million metric tons. The U.S. jump therefore occurred amid a change in the timing and mix of suppliers; it did not mean China’s overall soybean imports grew by anything close to 84%.
Why U.S. arrivals rose in early 2025
Buyers moved ahead of expected tariffs
Reuters quoted Rosa Wang, an analyst at Shanghai-based agro-consultancy JCI, saying that concerns about higher tariffs prompted a rush of U.S. soybean purchases. The report also said some cargoes confirmed before Donald Trump took office arrived in the January–February period. These details point to buying and shipping decisions made earlier, whose effects showed up in customs arrivals later.
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Brazilian supply was temporarily delayed
Wang also said delayed planting in Brazil raised expectations of a later harvest, creating a supply gap that encouraged additional U.S. purchases. Reuters reported that traders expected U.S. shipments to fall in March as Brazilian supplies became more available. Tariff concerns and harvest timing are reported explanations for the two-month surge, not a quantified breakdown proving how much each factor contributed.
Tariffs then weighed on trade
Reuters reported that China retaliated against new U.S. tariffs in March 2025 by raising duties on $21 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) later reported that high tariffs imposed in April curtailed trade. In its marketing-year figures, U.S. soybean imports for China in 2024/25 totaled 22.9 million metric tons, down 8% year over year, despite a surge in arrivals between December 2024 and March 2025.
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What the later figures show about supplier shifts
The early-2025 increase did not persist in the next comparable January–February customs comparison. Reuters reported that China’s U.S.-origin soybean imports fell 83.7% year over year to 1.49 million metric tons in January–February 2026. In that same period, Brazil-origin imports rose 82.7% to 6.56 million metric tons, while Argentina-origin arrivals reached 3.27 million tons, compared with 111,603 metric tons a year earlier.
Reuters attributed the reversal in part to trade tensions that delayed Chinese purchases of the U.S. autumn harvest until late October 2025, and reported that state buyers had taken around 12 million metric tons since then. That purchase figure is not the same as imports already recorded at customs.
How to read purchases, sales and arrivals
Trade figures can describe different stages of the same flow. A purchase commitment or export sale may be recorded before a shipment leaves port; a shipment may then take time to arrive and appear in customs data. As a result, purchases reported in one period can coexist with low arrivals in that period, with imports appearing later.
- Customs arrivals count goods that have reached the importing country. The January–February origin comparisons above are reported as imports.
- Purchases or commitments describe buying agreements and do not establish that all contracted soybeans have arrived.
- Export-sales data track reported sales and may include destinations that are not yet confirmed.
USDA FAS reported zero U.S. soybean arrivals in China from September through December 2025. As of February 26, 2026, its export-sales data showed China had purchased or shipped 10.8 million metric tons toward a 12-million-ton commitment. USDA cautioned that another 2.19 million tons sold to destinations listed as “Unknown” were not confirmed as bound for China. Reuters separately reported on January 20, 2026, citing three traders, that China had bought about 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans after the late-October trade truce. The Reuters figure is trader-sourced purchase reporting, not a customs-arrival total.
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What could shape U.S. sales from here
USDA FAS said a remaining 13% tariff and price advantages for South American supplies were constraints on private Chinese buying. Reuters likewise reported that private crushers favored cheaper Argentine and Brazilian soybeans at the time of its January 2026 report, while state firms were the buyers of U.S. soybeans it described. These factors help explain why a government-linked commitment or a temporary rise in arrivals need not translate into a sustained return of private demand.
Harvest calendars and shipment timing also matter. A short customs window can capture cargoes booked earlier, miss purchases that have not yet arrived, or reflect a temporary shortage from another supplier. Comparing origins over the same months helps, but it does not by itself establish annual market share or the durability of a trade shift.
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