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USO and SPY respond to different markets and are built differently. USO’s value is tied to oil futures and the costs and income associated with holding that exposure; SPY seeks to track the S&P 500, whose movements reflect the prices of its constituent companies in proportion to their index weights. USO is not a direct investment in physical oil or spot crude.
How USO’s exposure works
The United States Oil Fund (USO) seeks to link its net asset value (NAV) daily to a benchmark based on the near-month NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures contract, transitioning to the next-month contract. Its stated objective also accounts for interest on collateral and fund expenses. USO may use futures and, to a lesser extent, swaps and forwards. Its sponsor cautions that USO should not be treated as an investment in physical oil or in the benchmark futures contract itself. See the USO fund page.
That structure matters when comparing USO with a quoted spot-oil price: the fund’s result depends on futures exposure and other elements of its objective, not simply on the price of a barrel today.
What moves the oil market behind USO
Oil prices reflect global supply and demand, as well as expectations about how those balances may change. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) identifies economic growth and petroleum consumption as demand influences; production by OPEC and non-OPEC countries affects supply. Inventories can absorb temporary mismatches and provide a signal of market tightness. EIA explains these factors in its material on oil-market balance, OPEC supply and non-OPEC supply.
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In the short run, producers and consumers often cannot quickly change output or use when prices shift. A geopolitical event, severe weather, refinery outage or pipeline problem can therefore move prices by disrupting actual flows or changing expectations about future flows. Available spare production capacity and inventories can affect how sharply the market reacts. As the EIA puts it, “The volatility of oil prices is inherently tied to the low responsiveness or ‘inelasticity’ of both supply and demand to price changes in the short run.” Its spot prices discussion and oil prices and outlook explainer describe these mechanisms.
Why the futures curve matters to USO
Oil futures with different delivery dates can trade at different prices. In contango, later-dated contracts cost more than nearer-dated ones; in backwardation, nearer-dated contracts cost more than later ones. Because USO rolls its exposure from one contract to another, the curve can affect its returns over time relative to a simple spot-oil comparison. The direction or size of that effect is not guaranteed: contract price movements, other holdings, collateral income and expenses also matter.
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USCF’s disclosures describe the fund’s roll process, and its ETP document library says a five-day roll process begins January 1, 2026. These are fund-specific details, not a forecast of future performance. See USCF’s disclosures and the USO ETP Document Library.
How SPY’s exposure works
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) seeks, before expenses, to correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500. The index is float-adjusted market-cap weighted, so companies with larger index weights have more influence on its movement than smaller-weighted companies; its constituents do not contribute equally. State Street describes SPY’s objective on its SPY fund page, and S&P Dow Jones Indices explains the benchmark on its S&P 500 index page.
S&P Dow Jones Indices reported 503 constituents as of August 31, 2026. That is a dated snapshot; membership and index weights can change. The benchmark information establishes SPY’s index exposure and weighting method, but does not quantify how much any single factor—such as earnings, interest rates or valuations—contributes to SPY’s movement.
USO and SPY compared
| Comparison | USO | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| Underlying exposure | Oil-futures benchmark exposure, with collateral income and expenses included in its objective | S&P 500 performance, before expenses |
| Market inputs | Oil supply, demand, inventories, producer output and capacity, disruptions and expectations | Constituent stock prices, weighted by float-adjusted market capitalization |
| Structure-specific influence | Futures prices and rolling exposure; the curve can affect results compared with spot crude | Index membership and each constituent’s weight determine its relative influence |
| Trading consideration | Exchange price can differ from NAV | Exchange price can differ from NAV |
Fund price is not always the same as NAV
Both funds trade on an exchange, where the share price can be above or below the fund’s NAV. That means a market-price change can reflect both movement in the underlying exposure and a change in the relationship between the traded share price and NAV. USO’s fund materials and the SEC’s ETF investor bulletin explain this distinction.
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