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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsThe widely reported 818,000 figure was a preliminary estimate of how far the March 2024 payroll employment level might be revised—not a final count of jobs removed from the March 2023-to-March 2024 gain. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ultimately lowered the seasonally adjusted March 2024 employment level by 589,000. Separately, it revised the reported year-over-year gain ending in March 2024 from 2.900 million to 2.346 million, a reduction of 554,000.
What does the 818,000 jobs revision mean?
In August 2024, BLS estimated that its annual benchmark process would lower the March 2024 total nonfarm employment level by 818,000, or 0.5 percent. That was a preliminary estimate for the March 2024 level. It did not revise the monthly employment series at the time. BLS said the series would be updated after the final benchmark. BLS’s 2024 preliminary benchmark notice described the figure as an adjustment to the March 2024 level.
The final benchmark, published in February 2025, lowered that seasonally adjusted level by 589,000. So the final level adjustment was smaller than the preliminary 818,000 estimate.
Did the U.S. add 818,000 fewer jobs from March 2023 to March 2024?
No. The 818,000 estimate referred to a possible revision to the March 2024 employment level, not to the net change in employment between March 2023 and March 2024. When the final benchmark arrived, BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted over-the-year gain ending in March 2024 had been revised from 2,900,000 to 2,346,000. The reported gain was therefore 554,000 smaller.
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The endpoints matter: BLS had also revised the March 2023 employment level in its prior benchmark cycle. In its February 2024 release, the agency lowered the seasonally adjusted March 2023 level by 266,000 and revised the March 2023 over-the-year gain from 4,048,000 to 3,836,000. Those revisions are one reason not to interpret the preliminary March 2024 endpoint estimate as a direct measure of how much the entire March-to-March increase changed.
What were the preliminary and final figures?
| Measure | Earlier figure | Later or final figure |
|---|---|---|
| March 2024 employment level revision, seasonally adjusted | Preliminary: −818,000 (−0.5%) | Final: −589,000 |
| March 2024 employment level revision, not seasonally adjusted | not stated in the BLS preliminary notice cited here | Final: −598,000 (−0.4%) |
| March 2024 over-the-year employment change, seasonally adjusted | Previously published: +2,900,000 | Revised: +2,346,000 |
| March 2023 employment level revision, seasonally adjusted | Previously published level | Final benchmark revision: −266,000 |
| March 2023 over-the-year employment change, seasonally adjusted | Previously published: +4,048,000 | Revised: +3,836,000 |
The seasonal-adjustment basis changes the reported level revision: BLS’s final March 2024 adjustment was −589,000 seasonally adjusted and −598,000 not seasonally adjusted. These are two presentations of the benchmark adjustment, not competing estimates of a single unqualified figure.
Why does BLS revise payroll employment?
The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program surveys nonfarm establishments to estimate employment, hours, and earnings. Survey estimates are revised as more information becomes available, and BLS annually benchmarks the estimates to more comprehensive employment counts for March, derived principally from state unemployment-insurance tax records. The benchmark aligns the survey-based series with those broader counts. BLS’s 2023 preliminary benchmark notice explains the process and notes that only the March level was preliminarily estimated; the full series was updated with the final benchmark.
Benchmarks can move the estimated level because the survey and the more comprehensive count are different statistical sources. The preliminary estimate signals the expected adjustment; it is not itself a finalized revision to every month in the published series.
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How should readers interpret the jobs numbers?
- Separate levels from changes. A revision to the March 2024 employment level is not automatically the same amount as a revision to employment growth over the preceding year.
- Check whether a number is preliminary or final. The 818,000 figure was preliminary; the final seasonally adjusted level revision was 589,000.
- Keep the seasonal-adjustment basis attached. The final March 2024 level revision was 589,000 seasonally adjusted and 598,000 not seasonally adjusted.
- Account for both endpoints in a period comparison. March 2023 had its own benchmark revision, so a March-to-March comparison cannot be inferred from the March 2024 preliminary estimate alone.
BLS later announced a separate −862,000 not-seasonally-adjusted revision to the March 2025 employment level in 2026. That belongs to a different benchmark cycle and does not change what the preliminary March 2024 figure meant.
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