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The phrase “The RIFs have begun” refers to the federal government shutdown that started October 1, 2025. On October 10, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) said it expected more than 4,000 employees to be fired, but that was an estimate during a changing funding situation—not a verified count of people ultimately separated. A federal court later barred certain shutdown-related reduction-in-force notices. The court orders cited here establish no final resolution of that litigation.
What the administration announced
On October 10, 2025, Russell Vought, then director of OMB, posted: “The RIFs have begun.” The Associated Press reported that OMB said well over 4,000 employees would be fired. The administration described the funding situation as “fluid and rapidly evolving,” so the figure was an announcement-time estimate, not a confirmed total of completed layoffs.
The announcement followed the start of the shutdown on October 1, when the new fiscal year began without enacted appropriations for affected federal activities. The administration connected the planned reductions in force to the shutdown and funding lapse.
What the court did—and what its order covered
In American Federation of Government Employees et al. v. Office of Management and Budget et al., case 3:25-cv-08302-SI, the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California issued a preliminary injunction on October 28, 2025. It barred covered shutdown-related RIF notices in programs or competitive areas that included a bargaining unit or member represented by a plaintiff union.
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On November 7, the court reiterated its guidance on the injunction and directed the parties to meet and file a joint status report. That was not a final judgment on the merits. The order should not be read as a universal ruling about every federal employee or every RIF an agency might undertake independently of the shutdown.
The court materials cited here establish the injunction and November clarification, but do not establish a later final judgment or settlement. They also do not establish that every announced notice became an effective separation, or that all affected employees were reinstated.
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RIF notices, furloughs and completed separations are different
Federal agencies use a reduction in force, or RIF, when reducing, reorganizing or reshaping their workforce. A RIF can lead to separation, but the announcement of a RIF, a notice to an employee and an effective separation are not interchangeable events.
A shutdown furlough is different: when appropriations lapse, an affected employee may be placed temporarily in non-duty status under separate rules. “Furloughed” therefore does not mean “fired.” The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) publishes separate guidance for RIFs and shutdown furloughs.
| What happened | What it means |
|---|---|
| Shutdown furlough | Temporary non-duty status related to a lapse in appropriations; it is not, by itself, a RIF separation. |
| RIF announcement or plan | An agency’s stated intention to reduce or reshape its workforce; it does not establish how many people ultimately leave. |
| RIF notice | A formal notice in the RIF process. Its issuance does not by itself establish that the employee’s separation has taken effect. |
| Effective separation | The employee has actually been separated. The announcement-time estimate does not establish a final count of these separations. |
What is known about the number of employees affected
The only scale figure established in the contemporaneous report is OMB’s estimate, reported by the Associated Press on October 10, 2025, that well over 4,000 employees would be fired. It describes what the administration said it expected at that time; it is not a final, independently verified tally.
The sources cited here do not establish a final count of completed separations, subsequent reinstatements, or the number of employees who remained affected as of October 2026. Notices, notices covered by the injunction, completed separations and later personnel changes are distinct counts and should not be combined.
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What an affected federal employee can check
OPM’s RIF guidance describes several transition and placement programs. Eligibility depends on an employee’s circumstances and the applicable rules, so an employee should confirm details with agency human resources rather than assume every program applies.
- Reemployment Priority List (RPL): Check OPM’s guidance and ask agency HR whether the employee’s separation and circumstances qualify for placement priority.
- Career Transition Assistance Plan (CTAP) and Interagency Career Transition Assistance Plan (ICTAP): Ask HR whether the employee is eligible and how the relevant priority rules apply to openings.
- State training resources: OPM notes that states may offer training opportunities for displaced employees; availability varies.
Keep copies of any notice and confirm its issue date, proposed effective date and the agency contact handling the case. Those details help distinguish a notice from an effective separation and determine which RIF rules apply.
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Which RIF rules apply to a notice issued in 2026?
OPM’s amended RIF rule took effect September 2, 2026. Under OPM’s stated transition approach, a notice issued before that date is processed under the regulations then in force; a notice issued on or after that date uses the amended provisions. The rule changed RIF regulations, including how agencies prioritize employees. Its effective date does not, by itself, resolve the litigation over the 2025 shutdown-related actions.
For an individual case, use the notice’s issue date and seek current guidance from OPM and the employing agency. General accounts of the 2025 announcement cannot establish a particular employee’s eligibility, status or outcome.
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