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President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a new CNT/MDA poll, but the reported gap is narrower than in the preceding survey. The October 3, 2026 Reuters report put Lula ahead in the first-round scenario, among projected valid votes, and in a simulated runoff—three different measures that should not be treated as interchangeable.
What the CNT/MDA poll found
MDA surveyed 2,007 people from September 30 through October 2, 2026. Reuters reported a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. Its results separate into three scenarios:
| Measure | Lula | Flávio Bolsonaro | What it represents |
|---|---|---|---|
| First-round scenario | 43.1% | 38.0% | Reported support in the first-round scenario. |
| Projected valid votes | 47.8% | 42.1% | Projection excluding respondents who said they would cast blank or void ballots. |
| Simulated runoff | 47.3% | 43.1% | A poll simulation of a head-to-head second round, not the result of an actual runoff. |
The first-round scenario also listed Augusto Cury at 3.2%, Ronaldo Caiado at 3%, and Renan Santos at 1.5%. These are the figures reported by Reuters; a separate pollster technical document was not available to establish further details such as sampling mode or weighting. Reuters report syndicated by MarketScreener.
How the lead compares with the earlier survey
The Reuters report cited September 15 results of 40.5% for Lula and 30.4% for Bolsonaro in the first-round scenario. In the simulated runoff, the earlier figures were 47.3% for Lula and 40% for Bolsonaro.
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| Scenario | September 15 survey | September 30–October 2 survey | Change in Lula’s margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| First-round scenario | Lula 40.5%; Bolsonaro 30.4% (10.1-point margin) | Lula 43.1%; Bolsonaro 38.0% (5.1-point margin) | Narrowed by 5.0 percentage points |
| Simulated runoff | Lula 47.3%; Bolsonaro 40.0% (7.3-point margin) | Lula 47.3%; Bolsonaro 43.1% (4.2-point margin) | Narrowed by 3.1 percentage points |
The report does not provide a September 15 comparison for the projected-valid-vote measure, so that row is not included. The reported 2.2-point margin of error applies to the new survey; it is a measure of uncertainty around estimates, not a forecast of the election result or a guarantee that a candidate’s support falls within a precise range.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the election scenario means
Reuters said that if no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the Sunday first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff on October 25. That is conditional election context, not a poll finding. The poll’s simulated runoff figures estimate a hypothetical head-to-head contest; they are not a prediction or the result of the later actual runoff. Reuters report syndicated by MarketScreener.
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