Only as a rough scale analogy. Joel Shulman’s January 5, 2026 Forbes article multiplied an estimate of Venezuela’s proven oil reserves by an assumed oil price of $60 per barrel to get about $18 trillion. That is a gross, in-ground calculation—not a cash value, a spendable national fortune, or a valuation directly comparable with the Magnificent Seven’s combined stock-market value.
How does the $18 trillion estimate work?
The arithmetic is straightforward: the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports approximately 303 billion barrels of Venezuelan proven crude oil reserves based on 2023 data. Shulman’s article applies an assumed price of $60 per barrel:
303 billion barrels × $60 per barrel = $18.18 trillion
That is the source of the roughly $18 trillion headline. The $60 figure was an assumption in the January 2026 article, not a current quote for Venezuelan crude. Shulman says his calculation uses proven reserves rather than speculative estimates of oil in place; that describes his method, not an independent validation that reserve estimates are perfectly comparable across countries.
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What does “proven reserves” mean?
Proven reserves are not all the oil physically present underground. Under the EIA definition, they are quantities reasonably certain to be recoverable under existing economic and operating conditions, with production, gathering or transportation facilities installed or operative. Estimates can change as prices, costs and operating conditions change.
Multiplying those barrels by one benchmark price skips the steps between a reserve estimate and money received. It assumes, in effect, that every barrel can be produced and sold at that price, without accounting for when production happens, the costs of developing and lifting the oil, transport, refining constraints, financing, taxes or other fiscal terms, and political and legal risks. A cash-flow valuation would also account for the time value of money.
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Why is the Magnificent Seven comparison not like-for-like?
The oil figure is the gross product of a reserve volume and an assumed per-barrel price. A company’s market capitalization, by contrast, is the market value of its outstanding equity. One is not the other: the oil calculation does not estimate what investors would pay for a company or what Venezuela could collect from producing its reserves.
| Figure | What it measures | What it does not establish |
|---|---|---|
| About $18.18 trillion | 303 billion barrels multiplied by the Forbes article’s $60-per-barrel assumption | Net income, cash proceeds, or an equity valuation for Venezuela’s oil |
| Magnificent Seven combined value | A combined market-cap comparison invoked by Shulman’s article | An independently verified same-date total for the seven companies; that exact total has not been established here |
The comparison is useful only as an illustration of scale. A rigorous comparison would need consistent dates and clearly defined measures, as well as assumptions about production timing, costs, realized oil prices and the share of proceeds accruing to the state.
Why Venezuela cannot turn the headline into $18 trillion of revenue
Much of the oil is difficult to develop
The EIA says most of Venezuela’s proven reserves are extra-heavy crude in the Orinoco Belt. Producing this oil requires greater technical expertise than many other reserves. The EIA identifies sanctions, budget constraints at state oil company PDVSA, limited qualified technical staff and a lack of foreign investment as barriers to development.
Production is much smaller than the reserve total suggests
Despite its reserve scale, Venezuela produced 0.8% of global crude in 2023, according to the EIA. The International Energy Agency’s June 17, 2026 Oil Market Report estimated Venezuelan supply at 1.02 million barrels per day in April and 1.08 million in May 2026. Those are month-specific estimates, not proof that the same output can be sustained or expanded.
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For context, OPEC’s 2026 Annual Statistical Bulletin reports average world crude production of 74.85 million barrels per day in 2025 and average world oil demand of 105.15 million barrels per day that year. These are different measures—crude production and oil demand—and should not be treated as two sides of one directly comparable series.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why a later oil-price forecast does not update the $18 trillion figure automatically
The EIA’s current Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Brent crude to average around $90 per barrel in the second half of 2026 amid market volatility. That is a forecast, not a spot price on October 4, 2026, and not a price forecast specifically for Venezuelan extra-heavy crude. Brent is a benchmark; the amount received for a particular grade can differ.
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Replacing $60 with $90 in the same multiplication would produce a larger gross arithmetic result, but it would not make that result a current valuation. The dates, benchmark and crude grade would need to match, and the calculation would still omit development costs, timing and the other factors that separate gross reserve value from realizable proceeds.
What do 2026 investment announcements change?
U.S. administration fact sheets published in August and September 2026 announced purported agreements and investment plans involving Venezuela. The White House fact sheet claims a 65-billion-barrel concession package involving North American Blue Energy Partners. The Department of Energy fact sheet describes Chevron investment and production plans and an Eni agreement relating to Junín 5, including approximately 35 billion barrels of oil in place.
These are claims in the issuing administration’s documents, not independent confirmation of contract execution, legal control, reserve accounting or future production. In particular, oil in place means oil present in a formation; it is not interchangeable with EIA-reported proven reserves. The announcements therefore do not establish that Venezuela’s proven reserves—or the $18 trillion gross calculation—have increased.
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