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Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →For long-term investors, staying invested has a strong historical case against trying to sidestep downturns: strong market days can occur during or soon after difficult periods, and missing them has sharply reduced returns in one widely cited S&P 500 example. But that example does not prove buy and hold is best for every person—or that investors should never sell.
What missing the S&P 500’s 30 best days did to one historical investment
Hartford Funds’ 1Q26 illustration tracks a hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 from 1996 through December 31, 2025. The figures are ending values, not annualized returns:
| Hypothetical approach | Value at December 31, 2025 | Difference from staying invested |
|---|---|---|
| Invested throughout the period | $192,167 | — |
| Missed the 10 best days | $85,490 | 56% less |
| Missed the 20 best days | $49,551 | 74% less |
| Missed the 30 best days | $31,123 | 84% less |
Hartford attributes the January 2026 data to Ned Davis Research, Morningstar, and Hartford Funds. The chart illustrates how much the strongest days mattered in that particular index path; it is not a forecast or a result every investor would have earned. Hartford Funds’ market-timing explainer labels the chart illustrative and notes that past performance does not guarantee future results.
Why the comparison matters—and what it cannot show
Strong days are difficult to separate from market stress
In a separate, earlier Hartford Funds illustration covering 1995–2024, the 50 best S&P 500 days were distributed across market conditions: 50% fell in bear markets, 28% in the first two months of a bull market, and 22% during the rest of a bull market. That 2025 publication reported a hypothetical $224,278 for remaining invested versus $38,114 after missing the 30 best days, or 83% less. These are figures for a different date window and should not be combined with the 1996–2025 comparison. Hartford Funds’ 2025 publication gives the earlier-period results.
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The practical problem for someone who sells to avoid a decline is that returning to the market requires another decision: when to buy back in. The charts show the historical cost of excluding standout days after the fact. They do not demonstrate that a particular timing rule would have avoided losses, captured rebounds, or beaten staying invested.
The chart is retrospective, not a test of a usable strategy
“Missing the 30 best days” is defined with hindsight: the best sessions are identified after the period ends and removed from the calculation. Investors cannot know in advance which days will be the best. The illustration does not say that any investor actually missed those sessions, nor does it compare a specified timing system with a buy-and-hold portfolio under realistic trading conditions.
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It also describes one index over one selected period. Hartford notes that the S&P 500 is unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly; an actual portfolio has its own holdings, costs, taxes, and returns. The SEC cautions that past performance cannot predict future results and that back-tested performance is hypothetical. Its guidance on performance claims recommends examining methodology, fees, market conditions, and which periods a comparison includes.
Does this mean you should never sell?
No. The chart is evidence that exiting and missing strong recovery sessions can be costly in the illustrated historical path; it is not an individualized recommendation to hold every investment indefinitely. A sensible long-term approach can still include changing an allocation as goals, time horizon, cash needs, or risk tolerance change. The SEC’s asset-allocation guidance explains that allocation is personal and depends on factors including timeframe and tolerance for risk.
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Buy and hold is best understood as a long-term investing approach, not a promise to ignore a portfolio or a rule against rebalancing. The SEC distinguishes long-term investing—buying and holding a diversified portfolio over years—from short-term trading aimed at price changes. Investor.gov’s long-term investing explanation provides that distinction.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to apply the evidence to your own plan
- Start with the money’s purpose and timing. Money needed soon may not belong in the same investments as money intended for goals years away. Your timeframe and ability to tolerate losses help shape an appropriate allocation.
- Think about allocation and diversification, not only market exits. Diversification spreads exposure across investments and may reduce overall portfolio risk, but it cannot eliminate the risk of loss or guarantee a profit. The SEC’s Investor.gov Tips for 2026 states: “Diversification can help reduce the overall risk of an investment portfolio.”
- Inspect dramatic performance comparisons. Check the start and end dates, index or portfolio, whether a figure is an ending value or an annualized return, what costs and taxes are included, and which periods or outcomes are omitted. A hypothetical result is not a personal forecast.
- Separate a plan change from a reaction to fear. Revisit an allocation when your goals or circumstances change; do not treat the missed-best-days chart as proof that every sale is wrong or that every market decline should be ignored.
Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Hartford’s index and investment disclosures are available in its market-timing materials; the SEC likewise emphasizes that diversification does not eliminate loss risk.
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