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Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Ireland’s annual inflation rate, measured by the EU-harmonised HICP, was estimated at 3.9% in September 2026, up from 3.4% in August. Energy prices rose sharply, but the Central Statistics Office (CSO) has not quantified how much energy contributed to the headline rate. The September figures are provisional flash estimates; final results are scheduled for 8 October 2026.
What does Ireland’s 3.9% inflation figure mean?
The CSO’s flash estimate puts the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) 3.9% higher in September 2026 than in September 2025. In other words, the average prices represented by this index were higher over the year; it does not mean every item, or every household’s spending, rose by 3.9%.
The index was estimated to rise 0.2% between August and September. That monthly change answers a different question from the 3.9% annual rate: it measures the estimated movement over one month, not the change since a year earlier. The CSO’s September flash release reports both comparisons.
Why did the rate rise from August?
The like-for-like comparison is HICP against HICP: the annual rate was 3.4% in August and an estimated 3.9% in September. Energy prices were a prominent part of the September picture, rising an estimated 2.9% during the month and 15.3% over the year.
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Those figures show that energy prices increased substantially, but they do not establish the number of percentage points energy added to overall inflation. The CSO’s flash statement reports category movements rather than a quantified energy contribution to the 3.9% headline rate. The Irish Examiner quoted Deloitte Ireland chief economist Kate English on volatile global energy markets being reflected in the figures. Any explanation of how that may feed through to other prices is expert commentary, not a finding in the CSO estimate. The Irish Examiner’s report also attributes to English the possibility of a lag before fuel-related cost increases appear in food prices; that is not a certainty about future inflation.
What happened to other prices?
The CSO’s flash estimates show that not all categories moved like energy. The figures below are estimated changes in September 2026; annual rates compare with September 2025, while monthly rates compare with August 2026.
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| Measure or category | Estimated monthly change | Estimated annual change |
|---|---|---|
| All-items HICP | +0.2% | +3.9% |
| Energy | +2.9% | +15.3% |
| Food | 0.0% | +0.3% |
| Services | not stated in the September flash release | +4.1% |
| Non-energy industrial goods | not stated in the September flash release | +0.9% |
| HICP excluding energy and unprocessed food | not stated in the September flash release | +2.8% |
These are CSO estimates for Ireland’s September 2026 HICP flash release. “HICP excluding energy and unprocessed food” is a narrower measure that removes those categories; it is not the same as the all-items rate. The table’s monthly category entries are included only where the release states them.
Is 3.9% Ireland’s CPI inflation rate?
No. The September 3.9% figure is a flash estimate for HICP, a harmonised measure designed to support comparisons across European countries. The CSO describes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as Ireland’s official inflation measure. For context, its finalized August 2026 release put annual CPI inflation at 3.7% and August HICP inflation at 3.4%. Those two August rates refer to different indexes, so the 3.7% CPI figure should not be treated as the prior month’s value in the September HICP series. The CSO’s August release explains the measures and reports those finalized figures.
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How final are the September figures?
They are flash estimates and may be revised. The CSO said final September HICP results would be published alongside the CPI release on 8 October 2026. Until then, 3.9% is the preliminary annual HICP estimate, not a finalized September result. Check the CSO release after that date for the final figure.
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