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A free scan shows the junk files, broken settings and background clutter dragging Windows down - then fixes them in one click.Free scan · Windows 10 & 11Apple supply-chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo estimated that the iPhone 16 family generated about 37 million first-weekend preorder units in September 2024—roughly 12.7% fewer than the comparable iPhone 15 period. That is an analyst estimate, not an Apple sales report: Apple did not publish an official launch-weekend unit total.
What the 37-million figure actually measures
The figure covers the combined iPhone 16, iPhone 16 Plus, iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max during the first preorder weekend. The precise description is estimated first-weekend preorder volume, not completed sales, shipments, revenue or sell-through.
Kuo’s estimate was reported by BGR and AppleInsider on September 16, 2024. The implied iPhone 15 comparison is approximately 42.4 million units, calculated from the reported 12.7% decline; it was not presented as a separately audited Apple figure.
Who made the estimate, and how?
Ming-Chi Kuo is an Apple-focused supply-chain analyst. His estimates typically draw on supplier checks, component and production information, and retail signals. That background makes the number informative, but it does not give him access to Apple’s internal sales database.
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For this estimate, reporting says Kuo used supply-chain surveys and information from Apple’s official ordering websites, including changes in delivery dates and shipping delays. Those signals are useful but indirect:
- A later delivery date can reflect high demand, limited inventory, manufacturing yields or regional allocation.
- Immediate availability can indicate lower demand, greater initial supply or easier production—not necessarily weak sales.
- Apple’s website does not capture every carrier, retailer or regional order.
- Supply-chain estimates can change as Apple adjusts production and allocations.
For that reason, a Pro model becoming unavailable online is evidence of constrained availability as well as possible demand. It cannot be converted directly into a unit count.
Estimated model-by-model performance
| Model or group | Kuo estimate or reported change | What it suggests |
|---|---|---|
| iPhone 16 Pro Max | About 17.1 million; approximately 16% below iPhone 15 Pro Max | Lower estimated year-over-year opening demand despite early delays |
| iPhone 16 Pro | About 9.8 million; approximately 27% below iPhone 15 Pro | The sharpest reported decline among the listed models |
| iPhone 16 Plus | About 2.6 million; approximately 48% above iPhone 15 Plus | Large percentage increase from a smaller base |
| Entire iPhone 16 family | About 37 million; approximately 12.7% below iPhone 15 family | Softer estimated first-weekend volume overall |
These are Kuo’s estimates as relayed by the reporting, not audited sales data. The Plus’s 48% increase did not make it a dominant volume product in the estimate: its reported total was about 2.6 million units.
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What preorder timing and delivery dates showed
At launch, the iPhone 16 Pro Max reportedly sold out of immediate online inventory in less than 35 minutes. The iPhone 16 Pro became unavailable for immediate delivery within roughly an hour, and some configurations moved into October delivery windows. The standard iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus generally had better initial availability, although some Plus configurations later showed delays.
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Those observations help explain the model mix but do not establish total demand. Delivery dates vary by storage, color, country and carrier, and they combine customer orders with Apple’s inventory decisions.
Why Pro demand may have been weaker
Apple Intelligence was not fully ready on launch day
Apple marketed the lineup as built for Apple Intelligence, but the first Apple Intelligence features were scheduled to begin arriving in beta through later software updates, including iOS 18.1 in October 2024. Availability also depended on language, region and device settings. iOS 18 itself became available on September 16, 2024. See Apple’s launch announcement for the schedule.
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The upgrade case may have been weaker for recent Pro owners
The Pro models added camera and performance improvements, but owners of an iPhone 15 Pro already had a recent high-end phone. Kuo’s interpretation was that the changes may not have created a strong enough reason for those customers to upgrade immediately, especially at higher prices.
Competition in China was a headwind
Kuo also identified intense competition in the Chinese market as a factor weighing on demand. That regional pressure matters to the global estimate, but it does not show that every market responded in the same way.
Why the standard models appeared stronger
The reported estimate showed the regular iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus performing relatively better than their Pro counterparts. Apple gave the standard models the A18 chip, Camera Control, a 48-megapixel Fusion camera system and an Ultra Wide camera supporting macro photography. They launched in 128GB, 256GB and 512GB capacities, with U.S. starting prices of $799 for iPhone 16 and $899 for iPhone 16 Plus in September 2024. Apple’s technical specifications are listed at support.apple.com.
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Those features provide product context, not proof that any particular specification caused a purchase. The preorder estimate cannot identify which feature influenced an individual buyer.
Launch timeline
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| September 9, 2024 | Apple announced iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus. |
| September 13, 2024 | Preorders opened in the United States and numerous other markets. |
| September 16, 2024 | Apple released iOS 18; Kuo’s approximately 37-million estimate was reported. |
| September 20, 2024 | The lineup began reaching customers and stores in initial launch markets. |
| October 2024 | Apple said the first Apple Intelligence features would begin arriving in beta through software updates. |
Why Apple’s own figures cannot confirm the estimate
Apple no longer reports the kind of launch-weekend iPhone unit total that would directly validate or disprove Kuo’s number. Several different measurements are often blurred together:
- Consumer orders are not the same as units shipped by Apple.
- Shipped units are not the same as phones delivered or collected during launch weekend.
- Apple-store sales exclude carrier and third-party retailer transactions.
- Later financial results report revenue, not a launch-weekend unit count.
Consequently, “Apple sold 37 million iPhone 16 units” is not a supported statement. The defensible wording is that Kuo estimated approximately 37 million first-weekend preorder units.
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How to judge the claim
- Check whether the source attributes the number to Kuo or presents it as an Apple disclosure.
- Identify the measurement: estimated preorders, shipments, sales or revenue.
- Confirm that the time window is the first preorder weekend.
- Ask whether Apple, carriers and retailers are all represented.
- Separate model availability from demand, since production and allocation affect delivery dates.
- Make sure the 12.7% comparison uses the same preorder window for iPhone 15.
What the estimate does—and does not—prove
Kuo’s estimate points to softer opening demand for the iPhone 16 family than for iPhone 15, with the Pro and Pro Max appearing weaker while the standard models and Plus were relatively stronger. It does not establish final sales, revenue, profitability or the success of the entire product cycle. Later holiday demand, promotions and the arrival of Apple Intelligence could change the full-year outcome.
The most accurate conclusion is therefore narrow: the iPhone 16 launch appeared weaker than the iPhone 15 launch on Kuo’s indirect first-weekend estimate, but Apple did not publish a unit total and the estimate cannot by itself label the iPhone 16 a commercial failure.
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