The ISM Manufacturing PMI Prices Index rose to 77.9 in September 2026 from 71.1 in August—a 6.8-point increase. That works out to about a 9.6% rise relative to August’s reading, but it is not a 10% increase in actual prices or a forecast that consumer inflation will rise. The survey signals stronger input-price pressure among manufacturers; whether and when that reaches household costs is not established.
What surged, and what does the 10% figure mean?
The gauge is the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing PMI Prices Index. ISM reported a September reading of 77.9, up from 71.1 in August. The official change is 6.8 index points. Calling that “about 10% higher” uses a relative calculation—6.8 divided by 71.1 is about 9.6%—rather than ISM’s reported change. ISM’s September 2026 report was released October 1, 2026.
The index is a diffusion measure: it summarizes whether surveyed manufacturers are reporting higher, lower, or unchanged prices. A reading of 77.9 is not a 77.9% inflation rate, nor does it mean prices rose by 77.9%. Respondent-level results show the breadth behind the move: 58.6% reported higher prices in September, compared with 46.2% in August.
Does this mean inflation is coming back?
It is a warning sign of firmer prices for manufacturers’ raw materials and other inputs, not proof of a new wave of consumer inflation. ISM says that, over time, a Prices Index above 52.8 is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index (PPI) for Intermediate Materials. That relationship concerns producer prices for intermediate materials—not the Consumer Price Index (CPI) paid by households.
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Manufacturers may absorb higher input costs, offset them through other savings, or pass some costs along. The September survey does not establish how much of the pressure will reach final consumer prices or when. A single monthly reading also cannot settle whether a broader inflation trend is taking hold.
What drove the September pressure?
ISM identified increases in steel and aluminum, tariffs on imported goods, and petroleum-based products amid the Middle East conflict. Susan Spence, chair of ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said the increases in steel and aluminum affect the entire value chain, alongside the effects of tariffs and higher petroleum-based product costs.
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The pressure was broad across industries: 16 industries reported higher raw-material prices in September, and none reported lower prices. That breadth suggests the report was not describing a decline limited to one industry, though it does not show that every company faced the same cost increase.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read this against other inflation gauges
| Measure | What it tells you | Timing and limitation |
|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI Prices Index | A monthly diffusion index of surveyed manufacturers’ reported input-price direction; September’s reading was 77.9. | Survey signal, not a direct price-growth rate or consumer inflation measure. ISM, September 2026. |
| Federal Reserve manufacturing-survey average | An average tracking ISM and prices-paid surveys from the Dallas, Kansas City, New York, and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Banks. | The Federal Reserve’s July 2026 report includes data through June, so it predates the September jump and cannot confirm it. Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy Report, July 2026. |
| BLS PPI for Intermediate Materials | Realized producer-price data for intermediate materials; ISM identifies this as the series its Prices Index is generally consistent with above 52.8 over time. | It is a separate price measure, not interchangeable with a survey diffusion index or the CPI. The ISM report does not supply a September PPI value. |
These measures answer related but different questions. Their numerical readings are on different scales and should not be compared as if one point on one series meant the same thing on another. For a household concerned about inflation, the practical takeaway is to watch whether subsequent producer-price and consumer-price data show sustained increases—not to translate this ISM reading directly into a predicted change in grocery, fuel, or other household bills.
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What to watch next
- Whether ISM’s Prices Index stays elevated or reverses in later monthly reports.
- Whether the BLS PPI for Intermediate Materials shows corresponding realized producer-price increases.
- Whether consumer-price data show that any upstream pressure is reaching household purchases.
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