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To measure a horse racing model, calculate net profit from settled returns and stakes, then divide profit by total stakes for betting ROI. Calculate strike rate as winning settled bets divided by all settled bets. Keep the accounting conventions consistent and show the sample size: neither ROI nor strike rate alone proves a model will remain profitable.
Calculate profit, ROI and strike rate from settled bets
Use one row per bet and base the figures on what was actually settled, not projected winnings. Total return includes the stake returned on a winning bet; net profit does not.
- Net profit = total returns − total stakes. A losing bet has no return and loses its stake.
- Betting ROI (yield) = net profit ÷ total stakes × 100. The denominator is the amount staked, also called turnover. Smart Betting Club defines ROI on this basis in its glossary. Return on your starting bankroll is a different measure; do not label it betting ROI.
- Strike rate = winning settled bets ÷ settled bets × 100. A practical convention is to exclude void bets from both the numerator and denominator, then report how many bets were void.
Worked example
Suppose a model makes 100 settled bets of £1 each, has 20 winners, and receives £108 in total returns, including stakes returned on winning bets. Total stakes are £100, so net profit is £108 − £100 = £8. Betting ROI is £8 ÷ £100 × 100 = 8%; strike rate is 20 ÷ 100 × 100 = 20%. This is an arithmetic example, not evidence of any model’s performance.
The £108 is total return, not profit. Starting bankroll is not the denominator in the betting ROI calculation above.
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Settle different odds and bet types correctly
Single bets at decimal or fractional odds
For a winning single at decimal odds, total return is stake × decimal odds, including the stake; net profit is stake × (decimal odds − 1). With fractional odds of 4/1, for example, a £1 bet earns £4 profit and returns the £1 stake, for £5 total return. Racing Post’s betting guide explains the distinction between winnings and the returned stake.
Each-way bets
An each-way bet contains two parts: a win bet and a place bet. A £5 each-way instruction therefore costs £10 in total. Settle each part using the applicable place terms, add the returns, and subtract the full £10 stake to find profit or loss. Place terms vary by market and bookmaker. A non-runner can also lead to a Rule 4 deduction under the bookmaker’s applicable rules, reducing winnings.
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Other settlement types
For tote or pari-mutuel bets, exchange bets subject to commission, free bets, cash-outs, dead heats, voids, and other special cases, use the stake and the amount actually credited or debited at settlement. Record the convention you use and apply it consistently; do not mix quoted odds or projected returns with settled cash results.
What the headline results can—and cannot—tell you
Strike rate by itself does not show profitability. A lower hit rate at longer average prices can produce a different result from a higher hit rate at short odds. Alongside strike rate, report the number of bets, average odds, total stakes, net profit, and ROI. British Racecourses’ guidance also recommends considering drawdown, losing runs, odds, and sample size when evaluating a system: horse racing betting systems.
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A backtest that shows a profit does not establish a durable edge. To make the result more informative:
- Keep the data used to develop the model separate from a test set the model did not use.
- Freeze the rules before running that test, and make sure every feature uses only information available at the time a bet would have been placed.
- Where practical, keep a forward record of bets placed under the fixed rules.
- Break results down by meaningful periods or odds groups when there are enough bets to make the comparison useful. This can reveal whether the headline depends on a narrow slice of results or a few large winners.
These practices reduce the risk of overfitting and unrealistic assumptions; they do not guarantee future results. Historical profit or a high strike rate is not proof of future profitability.
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Comparing model versions or strategies
Compare versions on the same measures and settlement conventions. Include settled bets, strike rate, average odds, total stakes, net profit, ROI, maximum drawdown, and results across separate periods. Percentages with different denominators or void-bet rules are not directly comparable.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Keep a bet log that can reproduce the totals
A spreadsheet is enough. For each bet, record the date, race and selection, model version, bet type, stake, odds taken, result, and settled total return. Also log deductions, exchange commission, voids, and cash-outs where relevant so you can reconstruct net profit. British Racecourses’ guidance recommends tracking bets and outcomes to derive performance measures in its betting systems overview.
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Once the log is complete, sum the settled stakes and returns, calculate profit, then calculate ROI and strike rate using the formulas above. State how you handled voids and any unusual settlement so someone else can check the arithmetic.
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