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AI and data centers may be digital businesses, but building and running them depends on physical infrastructure: electricity, grid connections, cooling, industrial equipment and raw materials. That link can create new investment opportunities for utilities, grid operators, equipment makers and resource companies. It is a demand-and-capital-spending thesis, not proof that every company in those sectors will earn more or that its shares will outperform.
Why digital investment creates demand for physical infrastructure
Training and running AI models takes computing capacity. That capacity sits in data centers, which need electricity, cooling systems and reliable connections to the grid. As facilities are built or expanded, the spending can extend beyond servers to power generation, transmission and distribution, storage, backup systems, cooling and industrial equipment.
The chain continues into energy and materials: generating and delivering electricity, constructing facilities and manufacturing equipment all rely on inputs and supply chains. That is the basis for describing utilities, industrials, energy and materials as possible beneficiaries of digital investment. It does not mean they receive the same kind of demand, or that every company in a category has meaningful exposure.
How much electricity could data centers use?
The most recent U.S. estimate cited here is Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s 2025 update, published in June 2026. Its central estimate is that data centers could use 11.8% of total U.S. electricity by 2030, with a scenario range of 9.5% to 15.3%. These are model-based projections, not measured future consumption or a guarantee.
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The model draws on factors including equipment shipments, energy use per device, cooling performance and facility characteristics. The range matters: actual demand depends on how quickly data centers are built, what equipment they use and how efficiently facilities operate.
An earlier Berkeley Lab report, announced by the U.S. Department of Energy on December 20, 2024, estimated that data centers used about 4.4% of U.S. electricity in 2023 and could account for 6.7% to 12% by 2028. That is a useful illustration of how projections have evolved, but its 2028 forecast is not the latest estimate; the 2025 update extends the horizon to 2030.
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Where the investment might flow
Asset managers and market analysts identify several parts of the economy that could see spending or demand associated with data-center expansion. These are exposure categories, not a ranking of likely returns.
- Utilities and grids: New loads can prompt investment in generation, grid connections, transmission, distribution and related capacity. Benefits depend on where demand appears, what infrastructure is needed and how costs and approvals are handled.
- Data centers and listed infrastructure: The facilities themselves are infrastructure assets, while listed-infrastructure companies may own or operate assets linked to digital capacity. Exposure varies by business and geography.
- Industrial systems and equipment: Facilities and power networks require equipment and systems to deliver, manage and cool electricity. UBS Asset Management’s July 2026 commentary frames industrial systems alongside data centers, grids and power generation as part of the infrastructure shift.
- Energy and materials: Building and supplying infrastructure requires energy and physical inputs. Ninety One’s Paul Gooden argued in August 2026 that AI-related resource demand could meet constrained supply, linking the theme to natural-resource companies. That is the firm’s market thesis, not an established outcome for every commodity or producer.
What the headline spending forecasts do—and do not—say
Several investment firms have published large estimates for technology-related spending. They use different scopes and are forecasts, not a single audited measure of realized investment; they should not be read as directly comparable totals.
| Source and date | Estimate | What it represents |
|---|---|---|
| CBRE Investment Management, February 2026 | More than $600 billion for 2026 | Expected data-infrastructure spending by four large U.S. technology companies, as described in the firm’s commentary. |
| UBS Asset Management, July 2026 | More than $700 billion for 2026 | The firm’s estimate of 2026 capex; its article refers to company guidance published April 29, 2026. |
| Goldman Sachs Research, 2026 | Around $755 billion in 2026 and $920 billion in 2027 | Forecast capex estimates relayed in Goldman Sachs Research’s article. |
The figures illustrate the scale of the investment cycle as these firms see it; they do not establish how much will ultimately be spent, where it will go, or what returns infrastructure providers will earn. CBRE’s figure is specifically framed around data infrastructure spending by four U.S. technology companies, while the other cited estimates use their own scopes.
What this means for investors
The investment case is strongest when treated as a way to ask where spending may land, rather than as a blanket prediction that “old economy” stocks will rise. A data-center boom can increase demand for a service or asset, but an investor’s outcome also depends on the company’s costs, financing, competition, regulation, valuation and ability to convert new business into durable earnings.
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There is no source-backed universal ranking among utilities, listed infrastructure, industrial companies, energy firms and materials producers. When comparing an investment, consider:
- What activity it owns: A grid operator, data-center owner, equipment maker and commodity producer have different revenue drivers.
- Where it operates: Data-center growth and grid constraints are regional. A company’s assets may not be located where new demand is strongest.
- What drives its earnings: Some businesses may depend more on regulated investment or contracts; others may be sensitive to capex cycles or commodity prices.
- What the price already assumes: Strong demand can already be reflected in a share price. Higher infrastructure spending does not by itself show that a stock is attractively valued.
- How it finances and executes expansion: New projects can be delayed, overbuilt or funded on unattractive terms, and expected spending may not translate into profitable capacity.
A diversified listed-infrastructure fund and an individual utility, industrial company or commodity producer are not interchangeable ways to express the theme. The cited commentary does not provide a like-for-like comparison of funds, so investors would need to assess a fund’s holdings and risks separately from an individual company’s.
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Why the investment cycle could disappoint
Electricity demand is only one part of the equation. Grid capacity, affordability, reliability, access to firm power and regional concentration can determine whether planned data centers connect on time and whether the required infrastructure can be delivered. Projects also face regulatory, financing, construction and supply-chain constraints.
Resource markets add another uncertainty. Ninety One’s August 2026 argument is that geopolitical fragmentation and past capital discipline could constrain some supply responses. That interpretation highlights a possible risk of bottlenecks, but it is not a settled forecast of shortages or higher prices.
Policy ambition is not a delivery guarantee either. In the Department of Energy’s December 20, 2024 announcement, then-U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer M. Granholm said, “We can meet this growth with clean energy.” That statement expresses a policy view; it does not establish that additional load will be served affordably or on schedule.
What past market performance can tell you
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright reported on February 11, 2026 that energy, industrials and basic materials were each up more than 10% year to date in its cited SPDR sector-fund snapshot, with energy nearly 20%. That is a dated observation from the publisher’s article, not current performance as of October 2026 and not evidence that the sectors will keep leading.
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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsThe broader point is that a theme can attract investor attention before its long-term economic effects are clear. Past sector leadership and forecasts of capital spending are context, not a substitute for assessing a company’s actual exposure, earnings prospects and price.
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