Lawmakers have several ways to address Social Security’s projected funding gap, but the Social Security Administration’s modeled options are not enacted fixes or a settled congressional plan. The latest Trustees Report projects that the retirement and survivors program’s reserves will be depleted in 2032; after that, ongoing income would still cover part, but not all, of scheduled benefits. Which change would cost you most depends on whether you work, receive benefits or expect to retire later—and on the change’s design and timing.
What does Social Security’s funding gap mean?
The 2026 Trustees Report is the latest official baseline. It projects that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund, which pays retirement and survivors benefits, will deplete its reserves in 2032. At that point, the report projects that continuing income would cover 78 percent of scheduled OASI benefits. The separate Disability Insurance (DI) trust fund pays disability benefits.
Depletion does not mean Social Security stops collecting revenue or that all payments disappear. It means that, under the projection, reserves are exhausted and continuing income falls short of the benefits scheduled under current law. The 78 percent figure is a system-wide projection at depletion—not a calculation of an individual’s future check or a guarantee of an identical cut for every beneficiary.
The report also projects combined OASI and DI reserves depleted in 2034, with 83 percent of scheduled benefits payable at that point. That combined projection assumes legal authority to transfer funds between the two separately established programs; it should not be mistaken for a single trust fund that already combines them. The Trustees describe their projections as best estimates under current law, based on assumptions about the future population, economy and program. They conclude: “Legislative action will be needed to prevent OASI reserve depletion.”
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The long-range shortfall is a measure, not a bill
Under the 2026 intermediate assumptions, the combined OASDI actuarial deficit is 4.42 percent of taxable payroll over 2026–2100. That is a measure of the long-range imbalance across a 75-year period—not a one-time cash amount owed by workers or taxpayers. Its size depends on the projection period and assumptions.
How could lawmakers close the gap?
There is no single fix enacted in the Social Security Administration’s actuarial options database. The database estimates how illustrative policy changes could affect solvency; Congress would have to pass legislation to change current law. Options can raise revenue, reduce or slow the growth of benefits, or combine both approaches. Their effects depend on details such as who is covered, when a change begins, how quickly it is phased in and which age groups it affects.
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Illustrative estimates for two benefit changes
The following estimates use assumptions from the 2026 Trustees Report. They measure the share of the projected long-range shortfall closed, not the percentage by which a person’s benefit would fall.
| Modeled change | Start or phase-in stated in the estimate | Share of long-range shortfall closed | Who may bear the cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) by 1 percentage point | Beginning December 2027 | 46 percent | Beneficiaries would receive smaller annual increases than under the unaltered COLA. The difference can accumulate in the benefit level over time. |
| Gradually increase the normal retirement age to 69 | Gradual increase; the estimate summarized here does not specify the phase-in schedule | 11 percent | Workers and future retirees affected by the change would reach the age for their full scheduled benefit later. The effect depends on a person’s cohort and claiming age. |
These are examples, not a controlled comparison of every available policy. A larger share of the shortfall closed does not mean a change is more costly for every person: the COLA estimate describes an aggregate solvency effect, while its household effect depends on benefit amount and time in payment. The retirement-age estimate likewise does not provide a personal dollar impact.
Other policy approaches
- Raise payroll-tax revenue: A change could increase the tax rate or alter which covered earnings are subject to the tax. Workers, employers or self-employed people could bear costs depending on the design. No personal or aggregate estimate for a particular payroll-tax design is established here.
- Change the benefit formula: Lawmakers could alter how earnings are translated into benefits. The distribution of costs would depend on the formula and affected earnings or cohorts; there is no single formula change specified here to quantify.
- Change taxation of benefits: Adjusting the taxation of benefits could change recipients’ after-tax income. The effect would depend on the policy’s details and which recipients it covered.
- Expand program coverage: Bringing additional work or earnings under Social Security could affect both contributions and future benefit eligibility. The net effect depends on the coverage rules.
The options database contains categories with different estimates and baselines; SSA says some use 2026 Trustees Report assumptions while others remain on 2025 assumptions. Estimates from different baselines should not be ranked as though they were calculated under identical conditions.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Which fix would cost you the most?
There is no universal answer from the available aggregate estimates. A worker’s exposure to a payroll-tax change depends on covered earnings and the tax design. A current beneficiary’s exposure to a COLA change depends in part on benefit amount and how long the change affects increases. A future retiree’s exposure to a retirement-age or formula change depends on birth cohort, work and earnings history, and claiming age. A benefit-tax change would depend on the recipient and the rules adopted.
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To assess a proposal for your own situation, first identify whether it affects your earnings, your scheduled benefit, its annual adjustments or its tax treatment. Then check its effective date and phase-in, whether it applies to people already receiving benefits or only to later cohorts, and whether its effect builds over time. Without those policy details and an individual benefit calculation, the SSA’s solvency percentages cannot tell you which option would cost your household the most.
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What the estimates do—and do not—tell you
- They show how specified modeled provisions could affect projected program finances under stated assumptions.
- They do not show that Congress has adopted those provisions, or that a proposal will be enacted in that form.
- They do not translate the share of the shortfall closed into an individual’s monthly dollar loss.
- They are projections, not guarantees: future demographic and economic outcomes may differ from the assumptions used.
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