The U.S. housing market outlook for 2026 is mixed, not a clear forecast of either a boom or a broad decline. Zillow’s September outlook anticipated modest growth for the full year but a weaker final quarter; the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) had issued a more optimistic annual forecast in June. August sales figures show regional differences, and mortgage rates had risen by October 1. These national projections describe possible paths, not what prices or costs will do in a particular city.
U.S. outlook as of October 3, 2026. Forecasts below are projections; reported sales and mortgage figures are dated observations.
What the 2026 forecasts say
Forecasts differ partly because they were released at different times and do not all measure the same thing. NAR’s June forecast and Zillow’s September forecast should be read as separate outlooks, not combined into one consensus prediction.
| Source and release | Measure | 2026 outlook |
|---|---|---|
| NAR, June 2026 | Existing-home sales; median sale price; average mortgage rate | Forecast 4% growth in existing-home sales and 4% growth in median prices for 2026, with mortgage rates averaging 6.5%. NAR said stronger second-half sales depended on inventory and housing supply continuing to expand. |
| Zillow Research, September 18, 2026 | Zillow’s sales count | Forecast 3.766 million sales, up 1.2% year over year. |
| Zillow Research, September 18, 2026 | NAR’s existing-home-sales measure | Forecast 4.08 million sales, up 0.5% year over year. |
| Zillow Research, September 18, 2026 | Q4 existing-home sales, year over year | Forecast a 3.5% decline using Zillow’s count and a 2.8% decline using NAR’s measure. |
| Zillow Research, September 18, 2026 | Inventory and typical home values | Forecast inventory growth of 10.1% year over year and typical home-value growth of 1.2% by December 2026. |
The Zillow sales figures are not contradictory: they use different measures. The same caution applies to comparing a median sale price, which tracks prices of homes sold, with a typical home-value measure. Neither annual growth projection rules out declines in some places or property types.
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What expert price expectations add
Fannie Mae and Pulsenomics’ Q3 2026 Home Price Expectations Survey reported panelists’ average annual home-price growth expectations of 2.5% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027, and 2.7% for 2028. The survey polls more than 100 experts. These figures are the panelists’ views, not a Fannie Mae corporate forecast or a promise of appreciation for an individual home.
What recent sales and mortgage data show
August sales: a reported result, not a prediction
NAR reported that existing-home sales fell 2.0% month over month in August 2026, while sales were up 1.6% year to date through August. The reported supply was 4.9 months. NAR noted regional variation and said ample supply gave buyers better opportunities to negotiate. Its September sales release was scheduled for October 13, 2026, so the August report is the latest sales observation cited here—not a full-year result.
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Mortgage costs: a national weekly average
The Associated Press reported Freddie Mac’s weekly average for a 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.28% on October 1, 2026, compared with 7.03% the week before. The reported 15-year fixed average was 6.60%. These are national weekly averages, not quotes for a particular borrower; an individual rate depends on borrower and loan details, and averages can move from week to week.
Why the predictions differ
- Release date: NAR’s cited outlook was issued in June and Zillow’s in September. Later forecasts may reflect newer information about rates, inflation, employment, and housing supply.
- Metric: Zillow’s own sales count is distinct from NAR’s existing-home-sales measure. A forecast for median sale prices is also different from one for typical home values.
- Time period: A full-year change can be positive even if a forecast expects a year-over-year decline in the fourth quarter.
- Market segment and location: Existing homes, new construction, single-family homes, condos, and rentals do not necessarily move together. National averages also conceal local variation.
For context, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in June that sales were expected to be “modestly better in the second half of 2026,” provided inventory and housing supply continued to expand. That condition matters: a forecast is tied to assumptions, and changing conditions can change the outlook.
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The cited national forecasts lean toward modest annual home-price or home-value growth, but they do not establish that every market will rise. The expected pace also varies by source and measure. A national forecast cannot tell you whether a specific neighborhood, property type, or price range will gain or lose value. For a local decision, current listings, inventory, recent comparable sales, and the property’s condition matter more than a national average.
Will mortgage rates fall in 2026?
The outlooks do not support a guaranteed answer. NAR’s June forecast projected a 6.5% average mortgage rate for 2026, while Freddie Mac’s reported national weekly average was higher on October 1. Those figures are not the same kind of measure: one is a forecast of an annual average and the other a dated weekly observation. The October reading alone does not establish where rates will go next.
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Is 2026 a good time to buy a house?
A national prediction cannot decide whether buying is right for an individual household. Compare the actual home and financing available to you with the cost and flexibility of continuing to rent, based on how long you expect to stay and whether the payment remains manageable if your circumstances change.
- Check local inventory and comparable sales for the area and property type you are considering.
- Evaluate the full housing payment, including mortgage principal and interest, taxes, insurance, and any applicable association fees—not just the purchase price or advertised rate.
- Compare financing offers using your own credit, down payment, loan type, and costs; a national average is not an individual quote.
- Consider your expected time in the home, savings after closing, and ability to handle repairs or income changes.
Waiting for lower rates or prices is not automatically a better outcome: neither the forecasts nor the cited data establish whether waiting would improve a particular buyer’s result. A personal decision should rest on local options and household finances rather than treating a national projection as a guarantee.
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