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The “$1.5 trillion” figure was Gartner’s forecast for worldwide AI spending in 2025, published on September 17, 2025—not its current forecast for 2026. Gartner’s latest cited estimate, published September 16, 2026, puts 2026 spending at $2.670460 trillion, rounded to $2.7 trillion, with forecast year-over-year growth of 49.5%. These are forecasts, not audited totals of money already spent.
What Gartner’s $1.5 trillion figure means
Gartner said worldwide AI spending would total nearly $1.5 trillion in 2025. The forecast appeared in its September 17, 2025 release, which also said spending could top $2 trillion in 2026. The $1.5 trillion number should therefore be read with its original forecast year attached; it is not Gartner’s current 2026 estimate. Gartner’s September 2025 forecast.
How Gartner’s 2026 forecast changed
Gartner published successive estimates for 2026 during the year. Each is a dated forecast vintage, not a separate measure of final spending. The September release is the latest among the cited estimates.
| Forecast published | Forecast year | Worldwide AI spending estimate | Year-over-year growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 15, 2026 | 2026 | $2.527845 trillion | Not stated in the cited release summary |
| May 19, 2026 | 2026 | $2.595667 trillion | Not stated in the cited release summary |
| September 16, 2026 | 2026 | $2.670460 trillion, rounded to $2.7 trillion in Gartner’s headline | 49.5% |
Sources: Gartner’s January 2026 forecast, Gartner’s May 2026 forecast, and Gartner’s September 2026 forecast. The September table lists the total in millions of dollars; the trillion-dollar figure above converts that published total.
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What Gartner counts in the 2026 total
The forecast covers multiple AI-related markets, rather than a single line item such as chatbot subscriptions. Gartner’s September 2026 table lists infrastructure, services, software, cybersecurity, agents and assistants, generative AI models, platforms, application development, and AI data. It separates AI agents and assistants from AI software in that release, so comparisons of individual categories across releases require care.
Infrastructure is the largest listed category
Gartner forecasts $1.484397 trillion in AI infrastructure spending for 2026, making it the largest category in the September table. The category includes AI-optimized infrastructure such as IaaS, servers, network fabric, processing semiconductors, and devices, as described by Gartner. In the same release, Distinguished VP Analyst John-David Lovelock said demand for AI infrastructure to support anticipated future workloads “remains strong and inelastic to pressures from memory-related pricing increases.” That is Gartner’s analyst characterization, not an independently established measure of industry consensus.
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Software and development categories
Gartner cites AI features embedded in existing enterprise software as part of the market context. Its September forecast puts AI application development platforms at $9.541 billion for 2026 and says the projected growth rate for that category increased from 28% in its prior forecast to 39% in September. The stated rates compare Gartner’s forecast vintages; they do not establish realized growth.
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How to interpret the forecast
- It is a forecast, not a reported actual. The dollar totals describe Gartner’s projections for the named year.
- The date matters. The $1.5 trillion headline belongs to a September 2025 forecast for 2025; Gartner’s September 2026 release is the latest cited estimate for 2026.
- The total has a broad scope. It combines several AI-related categories. The public release gives a high-level table and explanations, while the full methodology and detailed category definitions are in Gartner’s paid “Forecast: AI Spending, Worldwide, 2025-2030, 2Q26” research.
- Revisions do not by themselves explain why estimates moved. The cited releases show the changing totals; they should not be treated as proof of a particular cause or as final spending results.
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