Scope Ratings’ April 2026 projection does not put U.S. debt at 160% of GDP within a decade. It projects general government debt rising from 124% of GDP in 2025 to 153% in 2036 under current policies without corrective measures. The 160% figure is not supported by that announcement. Scope’s measure also differs from the Congressional Budget Office’s measure of federal debt held by the public, so the two forecasts should not be treated as directly interchangeable.
What Scope Ratings actually projects
In its April 28, 2026 monitoring announcement, Scope Ratings GmbH projected U.S. general government debt at 124% of GDP in 2025, 140% in 2031 and 153% in 2036, assuming current policies continue without corrective measures. The announcement therefore supports a steeply rising debt path, but not the claim that Scope’s latest projection reaches 160% within a decade. Scope Ratings’ April 2026 monitoring announcement.
Scope also expects the general government deficit to average 7.5% of GDP during 2027–2031. It identifies persistent primary deficits and growing interest costs as reasons the debt burden would increase. The announcement says the primary deficit is expected to remain above 3% of GDP, while a growing share of revenue is going to interest payments.
How Scope’s forecast differs from CBO’s
The Congressional Budget Office’s February 2026 baseline projects a different measure: federal debt held by the public. Under that baseline, the ratio rises from 101% of GDP in 2026 to 120% in 2036, then reaches 175% in 2056. CBO says its baseline generally assumes current law remains in place and is intended as a benchmark for policy analysis, not a promise of what will happen. CBO’s February 2026 budget and economic outlook.
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| Institution and projection | Debt measure | Published figures | Policy condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scope Ratings GmbH, April 2026 | U.S. general government debt | 124% of GDP in 2025; 140% in 2031; 153% in 2036 | Current policies without corrective measures |
| Congressional Budget Office, February 2026 | Federal debt held by the public | 101% of GDP in 2026; 120% in 2036; 175% in 2056 | Baseline generally assumes current law remains unchanged |
These figures are not like-for-like. Scope reports general government debt, while CBO reports federal debt held by the public; the measures have different coverage and come from different forecasting frameworks. The CBO figure of 175% is for 2056, not for the next decade, and it should not be used as confirmation of Scope’s 160% claim.
Why debt is rising in these projections
Deficits add to borrowing
When government spending exceeds revenue, the resulting deficit generally adds to debt. Scope expects persistent primary deficits, meaning deficits before interest costs, and describes the primary deficit as remaining above 3% of GDP. Its expected average general government deficit for 2027–2031 is 7.5% of GDP.
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Interest costs compound the pressure
Interest payments consume revenue without paying for new public services or reducing principal. Scope says the revenue share going to interest has risen. CBO likewise identifies large deficits and growing net interest outlays as important features of its projected debt trajectory. Together, sustained deficits and the cost of financing existing debt make the path sensitive to fiscal policy and economic conditions.
What the projection means for credit ratings—and what it does not
Scope’s April 2026 monitoring review left the United States at AA-/Stable and resulted in no rating action. The agency cites prolonged increases in the debt ratio and fiscal deterioration as rating concerns, while also describing strong economic fundamentals. In its issuer rating report, Scope characterized the U.S. economy as “A large, diversified, competitive and very-wealthy economy” and the fiscal challenge as “Sustained high budget deficits and structurally rising general government debt as a share of GDP.” Scope’s U.S. issuer rating report.
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A long-range debt projection is not an announcement of a downgrade, missed payment or imminent default. It is a conditional estimate of how debt could evolve if its assumptions hold, and a factor credit analysts weigh alongside the country’s broader economic and institutional strengths.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How certain are the forecasts?
Neither projection is a certainty. Scope’s 2036 figure depends on its assumption that current policies continue without corrective measures. CBO cautions that its projections depend on economic and demographic assumptions, future legislation and other developments, and that uncertainty grows with time. Policy changes, economic growth, inflation, interest rates and other factors can all alter the eventual debt-to-GDP ratio.
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The most defensible reading is therefore specific: Scope’s April 2026 announcement projects U.S. general government debt at 153% of GDP in 2036 under its stated policy condition. It does not establish a 160% figure within a decade, and the separate CBO projections use a different debt measure.
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