About $875 billion in U.S. commercial and multifamily mortgage balances was scheduled to mature in 2026, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). That is a large refinancing challenge, but it is not a forecast that $875 billion will default: the figure counts scheduled maturities, and borrowers can refinance, contribute cash, restructure, sell, or take other paths.
How much commercial real estate debt is due in 2026?
The MBA’s 2026 survey put scheduled 2026 maturities at $875 billion, equal to 17% of the $5.0 trillion in outstanding commercial and multifamily mortgage balances held by lenders and investors. Those balances were unpaid principal as of December 31, 2025; actual payoff amounts at maturity generally will be lower as borrowers make payments and loans amortize. The scheduled amount is therefore not necessarily the cash borrowers will need to repay on the due date.
| Scheduled maturity year | Amount | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $957 billion | Prior-year scheduled amount in the MBA series |
| 2026 | $875 billion | 17% of the $5.0 trillion balance in the survey |
| 2027 | $652 billion | A substantial maturity pipeline remains |
Source for all three figures: MBA, “17 Percent of Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Balances to Mature in 2026,” February 9, 2026; balances as of December 31, 2025. The MBA’s scheduled 2026 amount is 9% below its 2025 figure. This series does not support describing 2026 as its largest maturity year.
Which property types face the biggest refinancing wall?
The clearest property comparison is the share of each property type’s mortgage balance scheduled to mature in 2026. These percentages are not shares of all 2026 maturities, and they do not indicate default rates.
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| Property type | Share of that type’s mortgage balance scheduled to mature in 2026 |
|---|---|
| Hotel/motel | 30% |
| Industrial | 23% |
| Office | 17% |
Source: MBA, February 9, 2026. These shares measure near-term maturity exposure, not how much debt a sector has in total or whether its owners can repay. For office, operating conditions add a separate concern: the FDIC’s 2026 Risk Review reported 14.0% office vacancy at year-end 2025, the highest among the four major property types it discussed and 4 basis points above the 2024 level.
Why can’t some landlords refinance?
A replacement loan is sized against the property now
A commercial mortgage commonly has a balloon payment: some principal remains due at the end of the loan term, even if the borrower has made scheduled payments. To repay it, the owner may seek a new loan. A lender considering that loan assesses the property and borrower under current conditions, including operating income, occupancy, expenses, value, loan terms, and available credit. If the resulting loan is smaller than the old loan’s payoff, the borrower has a funding gap.
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That gap can emerge when a property earns less or has more vacancy, when operating costs rise, when an updated valuation supports less borrowing, or when rates and underwriting conditions change. A refinancing shortfall does not mean every property has lost value or every borrower is unable to pay; results depend on the asset, loan structure, borrower resources, and lender.
Higher rates and weaker property fundamentals can compound
The FDIC said elevated interest rates, high operating costs, and elevated vacancy challenged some borrowers’ ability to refinance and repay. The Federal Reserve’s Spring 2025 Financial Stability Report described borrowers who had not secured refinancing amid tight lending standards, reduced property valuations, and interest rates above those prevailing when much of the debt was originated. That was a warning about the conditions and risk at the time, not a count of borrowers still unable to refinance in 2026.
Conditions were not uniformly worsening. In its 2026 Risk Review, the FDIC described commercial real estate as soft, particularly in office, but stabilizing in 2025: property values edged up and transaction volumes increased, while net operating income growth slowed. Aggregate bank CRE delinquency and charge-off ratios remained low, with conditions uneven across bank groups.
Is commercial real estate lending shut?
No single “lending shut” description fits the available evidence. In its April 2026 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey covering the first quarter, the Federal Reserve reported basically unchanged CRE lending standards and weaker or basically unchanged loan demand. Banks also reported changes to selected terms—including higher maximum loan sizes, narrower spreads over banks’ cost of funds, and longer interest-only periods—with differences across loan categories. The survey does not establish that every property type or borrower can obtain financing on workable terms.
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Borrower outcomes also differ by loan holder. The MBA reported these 2026 scheduled maturities by holder category:
| Holder category | Scheduled 2026 maturities | Share of that category’s mortgage balances |
|---|---|---|
| Depository institutions | $396 billion | 21% |
| CMBS, CLO, or other ABS | $200 billion | 25% |
| Credit companies, warehouse facilities, or other lenders | $163 billion | 29% |
Source: MBA, February 9, 2026. Amounts are scheduled maturities in those categories, not estimates of losses. Lender structures and flexibility vary, so the overall maturity total alone cannot show which borrowers have refinancing options.
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Does the maturity wall mean a wave of defaults?
Not by itself. A maturity is a contractual due date, not evidence that a borrower will miss it. The cited official sources do not provide a reliable aggregate forecast for what share of 2026 maturities will fail to refinance, default, or enter foreclosure. It would be misleading to turn the $875 billion scheduled amount into a projected loss figure.
When a new loan does not cover the payoff, possible resolutions include a refinance supported by additional borrower equity or principal paydown, a negotiated accommodation or workout, an asset sale, or default. Federal Reserve guidance recognizes prudent CRE accommodations and workouts; an extension alone is neither proof that a loan is healthy nor proof of a concealed default. The specific borrower, collateral, and loan terms matter.
What should a landlord examine before a loan matures?
An owner approaching maturity can make the refinancing question more concrete by assembling the facts a prospective lender or workout counterparty will evaluate:
- Estimate the payoff: confirm the maturity date, current principal, accrued amounts, and any other obligations against the property.
- Update property performance: review rent collections, occupancy, lease expirations, operating expenses, and net operating income rather than relying only on the figures used for the original loan.
- Model the financing gap: compare the payoff with plausible new-loan proceeds under current income, valuation, and loan terms. Treat the result as an estimate, not a universal formula or lender commitment.
- Discuss paths early: ask the current lender and potential replacement lenders what information they need and whether refinance, borrower equity, a sale, or a workout is viable for this loan.
Those steps do not guarantee financing; they help distinguish a property that can support a new loan from one that needs additional capital or a negotiated resolution.
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