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What the latest China smartphone figures show
For the quarter ended June 2026, market trackers describe a shrinking mainland Chinese smartphone market but a comparatively strong quarter for Apple. IDC’s preliminary estimate put shipments at about 66 million, down 4.3% year over year and marking a fifth consecutive quarterly market decline. IDC said Apple and Huawei each grew roughly 20% year over year, with Apple’s growth described elsewhere in its report as about 25%. IDC’s Q2 2026 analysis notes that its preliminary figures may be revised.
Omdia estimated 66.1 million shipments, a 2% annual decline. It put Apple at 12.4 million shipments and a 19% share—Apple’s highest second-quarter share in Omdia’s series—and Huawei at 23%. The two trackers differ on the market’s rate of decline, but both show Apple gaining ground while the total market contracted. Their estimates should be treated as separate measurements, not blended into a single figure: tracker methodologies, channel coverage, brand grouping and revision timing can differ. See Omdia’s Q2 shipment report.
| Measure | IDC, Q2 2026 | Omdia, Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Mainland China market shipments | About 66 million; down 4.3% year over year; preliminary estimate | 66.1 million; down 2% year over year |
| Apple | Growth of roughly 20% year over year; about 25% elsewhere in the report | 12.4 million shipments; 19% share |
| Huawei | Growth of roughly 20% year over year | 23% share; ranked first |
These are quarterly shipments into the market, not a direct count of completed consumer purchases. Restocking can affect shipment totals. Market share also differs from absolute sales: a vendor can gain share even when its own volume falls, if competitors or the total market fall faster.
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Why the 618 shopping festival tells a different story
Counterpoint data cited by Reuters measured a specific retail window, May 26 to June 21, 2026. During that 618 period, smartphone sales fell 13% year over year, while Apple sales fell 9%. Huawei went the other way, with sales up 19% and a 21% share; Apple finished second after promotions and trade-in incentives. These figures describe the festival period, not the whole quarter. The Reuters report is available at China smartphone sales drop 13% during 618.
The year-over-year comparison was also affected by heavier promotions for the iPhone 16 range during the previous year’s festival. In 2026, some iPhone 17 Pro models received discounts of up to CNY 2,000—approximately $295 at the exchange rate quoted by Reuters—through a combination of official price cuts, platform subsidies and trade-ins. A decline against a heavily promoted prior-year period does not establish a continuing quarterly decline.
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Why Apple held up while the market weakened
IDC cited higher memory and other component costs, fading government subsidies and consumers’ reduced willingness to upgrade as pressures on the market. Such costs have weighed on lower-priced Android models, while Apple’s relatively stable pricing and premium positioning supported its relative performance. Omdia also pointed to channel restocking and stable iPhone pricing. Promotions and trade-in offers may have helped Apple compete, but the data do not establish that any single factor caused the quarterly rebound.
Some analysts also suggested that expectations of higher prices for later 2026 products may have pulled purchases forward. That is a possible explanation, not a measured cause. A stronger shipment quarter could reflect both underlying consumer demand and channel activity; shipment estimates alone cannot separate them.
Huawei is leading, but Apple is not the whole competition
Huawei was the leading vendor in Omdia’s Q2 shipment estimate, with a 23% share, compared with Apple’s 19%. In the 618 sell-through figures cited by Reuters, Huawei also gained while the wider market and Apple declined. Its position is supported by new launches, domestic supply-chain advantages, stable pricing and a broad product range, according to Omdia and Reuters.
That does not mean every Apple sale lost went to Huawei. The mainland market also includes Oppo/OnePlus/realme, vivo, Xiaomi and Honor. Omdia ranked Oppo/OnePlus/realme third, vivo fourth and Xiaomi fifth in Q2. The more defensible conclusion is that Huawei is Apple’s most prominent competitive pressure in these figures, within a broader domestic-brand contest.
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What Apple’s own financial statements can—and cannot—tell you
Apple does not disclose mainland China iPhone unit sales in its standard public financial statements. It reports revenue by product category and by geographic segment, including Greater China. Those categories do not provide a direct substitute for a mainland-only iPhone sales series.
Apple reported Greater China revenue of $64.377 billion for fiscal 2025, down from $66.952 billion in fiscal 2024. The figures cover Apple products and services across the segment, not just iPhones or mainland China. Apple’s fiscal 2025 consolidated financial statements provide the annual comparison. For the nine months ended June 28, 2025, Greater China revenue was $49.884 billion, compared with $51.919 billion in the corresponding prior-year period, again across products and services; see Apple’s fiscal 2025 third-quarter statements.
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For a more recent but different lens, Apple said its fiscal third quarter ended June 27, 2026, had record June-quarter iPhone revenue and year-over-year revenue growth in every geographic segment. That is company-wide revenue, not China-specific iPhone units. It therefore cannot confirm or refute a mainland unit-sales claim on its own. Apple’s July 30, 2026 results announcement gives the company’s statement.
Why “a new record low since 2020” is not established
A record-low claim needs a clearly defined series. It should identify what reached a low—units, shipments, sell-through, market share or revenue—as well as the period, geography, tracker and comparison range. “China” also needs care: mainland China tracker data are not the same as Apple’s broader Greater China segment. Without those details and a historical series, “lowest since 2020” cannot be verified from the current figures. The available Q2 2026 evidence instead shows market contraction alongside Apple’s growth in shipments.
Quick Recap
What to watch in the next reports
- Whether subsequent IDC and Omdia quarterly estimates confirm or revise Q2 shipment growth and Apple’s share.
- Whether Apple sustains share without relying on unusually large discounts, and whether channel restocking translates into consumer purchases.
- How government subsidy availability and memory and storage component costs affect phone prices and upgrade demand.
- Huawei’s next flagship launches and the performance of other domestic brands, rather than treating the market as a two-company contest.
- Apple’s fiscal-quarter Greater China revenue alongside tracker data, keeping the broader revenue segment separate from mainland iPhone units.
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