Bitcoin’s drop below $104,000 was a historical milestone, not a current-price update. The available reporting does not establish exactly when or where Bitcoin crossed that threshold. A later SEC filing by Bitwise Bitcoin ETF Trust describes an October 2025 high near $126,000 and a price below $60,000 by June 2026. The decline was associated with several overlapping pressures—risk-off macro conditions, weaker buying demand and leveraged selling—not a single verified cause.
What the $104,000 headline does—and does not—tell you
The $104,000 figure identifies a past price threshold, but the available sources do not verify the exact crossing time or trading venue. It should not be read as Bitcoin’s current price. Bitwise Bitcoin ETF Trust’s 2026 Form 10-Q places the broader timeline in context: Bitcoin reached approximately $126,000 in October 2025, then traded below $60,000 in June 2026. Coinbase Institutional later discussed Bitcoin trading below nearby $76,000 support in commentary dated September 18, 2026.
Those are different points in a volatile period, not a continuous explanation of every move between them. The available accounts support a combination of market pressures and analyst interpretations; they do not establish that one event caused the full decline.
Why crypto prices may have fallen
Higher real yields, a stronger dollar and tighter liquidity
When inflation-adjusted yields rise, safer interest-bearing assets can look more attractive relative to speculative investments. A stronger U.S. dollar and tighter liquidity can also weigh on risk appetite. Binance Research’s assessment of the first half of 2026 attributed Bitcoin’s underperformance versus major asset classes to higher real yields, a stronger dollar and tighter liquidity, which it said outweighed crypto-specific developments.
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Coinbase Institutional’s September 18, 2026 commentary described a separate, later rate-sensitive episode: it said the Federal Reserve had raised rates for the first time in more than three years and that market pricing had shifted toward further tightening. The commentary reported a 51% market-implied probability of another October rate hike, up from 16% before that CPI print. Those figures describe market expectations reported on September 18, not a confirmed future decision. Interest rates can affect appetite for risk, but neither this episode nor the broader relationship proves that rates alone determine Bitcoin’s price.
ETF outflows and weaker marginal demand
Prices can weaken when the next wave of buyers becomes less willing to buy, even without a new failure in Bitcoin’s protocol. Bitwise’s SEC-filed 2026 Form 10-Q says U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded products recorded their largest quarterly net outflows since launch in Q2 2026, citing other sources for that account. Coinbase Institutional separately described flows reversing to outflows in September 2026 after a strong stretch earlier in the month. These are distinct reporting periods, and ETF flow data is a signal of demand—not a complete explanation of price movement.
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Leverage and forced selling
Borrowed positions can amplify a fall. If a trader’s collateral loses value or falls below a required margin level, a lender or trading venue may close the position by selling assets. That selling can push prices down further and put other leveraged positions under pressure.
Bitwise’s filing says some sources estimated that up to $20 billion in digital-asset collateral was liquidated during the October 2025 turmoil. It also describes service interruptions, halted orders and forced unwinds across centralized and decentralized exchanges. Treat the $20 billion as a reported estimate, not an independently verified total or proof that liquidations alone drove that episode. In a general explanation of the mechanism, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard said in a July 8, 2022 speech that decentralized lending can amplify stress through waves of liquidations as prices fall; she was not describing the specific 2025–26 decline.
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Binance Research’s H1 2026 report said corporate accumulation had become heavily dependent on Strategy, while miners increased treasury sales amid weak mining economics. It reported that Strategy sold 32 BTC in May and disposed of 1,363 BTC at quarter-end for reserve and distribution needs. These examples show how buying and selling by large holders can change at the margin. They do not establish that those transactions caused a particular day’s price move.
Regulatory and legislative news
Regulatory developments can change expectations, but timing alone does not demonstrate that a rule caused a decline. The SEC says its interpretive release concerning certain crypto assets was issued on March 17, 2026, and became effective on March 23, 2026; the available material does not establish it as a cause of the price weakness.
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In a different, later episode, Coinbase Institutional reported that the Senate rejected cloture on the CLARITY Act by a 49–50 vote on September 15, 2026, and linked that setback to Bitcoin moving below nearby $76,000 support. That is Coinbase’s analysis of the September episode, not an explanation of the earlier $104,000 threshold.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How the explanations fit different parts of the decline
| Period | What the source reports | Evidence type and market channel |
|---|---|---|
| October 2025 | Bitwise’s 2026 Form 10-Q describes a high near $126,000 and says some sources reported a roughly 14% Bitcoin loss in mid-October and up to $20 billion in digital-asset collateral liquidations during the turmoil. | SEC-filed retrospective; wider risk-off conditions and leverage. The filing says the turmoil was widely attributed to trade tensions, but the estimates are attributed to some sources. |
| First half of 2026 | Binance Research attributes Bitcoin’s underperformance to higher real yields, a stronger dollar and tighter liquidity; it also describes weaker corporate accumulation outside Strategy and increased miner treasury sales. | Research interpretation; macro risk appetite and crypto-native supply and demand. |
| Q2 and September 2026 | Bitwise’s filing reports the largest quarterly net outflows since launch for U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded products in Q2, citing other sources. Coinbase Institutional describes a separate reversal to outflows in September. | Retrospective reporting and market commentary; marginal ETF demand, across distinct windows. |
| September 2026 | Coinbase Institutional discusses rate expectations, energy-price reversals and the failed September 15 Senate cloture vote on the CLARITY Act alongside Bitcoin’s move below nearby $76,000 support. | Time-specific market commentary; changing risk appetite and legislative expectations, not a cause established for the earlier $104,000 crossing. |
The comparison separates reported events from interpretations; it does not rank their causal importance. No source here provides a complete breakdown of how much each factor contributed.
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What volatility means for a Bitcoin price drop
A sharp fall can occur within a market that has historically moved substantially in both directions. Bitwise’s 2026 Form 10-Q reports 64.02% average annualized one-year trailing Bitcoin volatility over the ten years leading up to its reporting date. That is a historical measure for a specified window, not a forecast, a measure of the $104,000 crossing itself or evidence for any particular cause.
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